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Juan Soto

#1 · October 21, 2022, 9:12 am

Quote from LynchMob on October 21, 2022, 9:12 am
Ken Rosenthal at The Athletic:

Nola threw him a sinker on the inner half. Soto pulled in his hands and ripped a game-tying, 105.7 mph RBI double to right. By the time the inning was complete, the Padres had scored five runs, completing their rally from a 4-0 deficit in an 8-5 victory that evened the series at one game each.

Soto still is only batting .222 with a .560 OPS in 40 plate appearances this postseason, but his numbers are somewhat deceptive. No hitter in these playoffs has hit as many balls 95 mph or more, though a number of players, including the Phillies’ Bryce Harper, have produced higher hard-hit percentages. The Padres know Soto is capable of a major surge at any moment, even though his postseason has been an extension of his September/October, when he batted only .220 with a .726 OPS.

“I think there was a stretch there where he wasn’t playing obviously up to his standards. He wasn’t playing very well at all. I think it was one of the worst stretches of his career,” said the Padres’ Josh Bell, who joined the Nationals in 2021 and accompanied Soto in the trade to San Diego. “As of late, I know that his numbers don’t show it, but he’s squaring up a lot of balls.

“I’ve played with Juan long enough to know he’s the type of guy who is not going to chase. He’d rather take strike three called if it’s a ball off the plate. He’s not going to expand just to put something in play. I know when he’s getting his ‘A’ swing off — and it’s always on strikes — good things happen. Some people will say he’s too passive, but just know when he’s swinging the bat it’s with authority. And when the luck changes, we’re going to be in a really good place.”

“Passive” is an accurate description of Soto during his time with the Padres — he swung at only 34.9 percent of the pitches he saw after the trade through the end of the regular season, the lowest percentage of any player in baseball with 175 plate appearances. Yet, while restricting his swings mostly to strikes, he is hitting for far less power, a development rival evaluators find baffling.

Soto has not hit a home run this postseason, and his double off Nola was only his second extra-base hit. In the 2019 playoffs, he produced a .927 OPS, including five homers and three doubles, in 75 plate appearances. The Nationals ended up winning the World Series.

The Padres want Soto to go to left-center instead of being so pull-oriented, believing an opposite-field approach will help ignite him. Soto hits one drive after another to left-center in batting practice, but he has yet to duplicate that pattern in games. Rival clubs have noticed, and used the changeup as a weapon against him. When Soto is at his best, his barrel lags, creating significant length in his swing plane.

That’s the technical aspect. But the transition Soto underwent in the middle of the season is part of this, too.

Soto spent his first seven years in the Nationals’ organization after signing with the club as an amateur out of the Dominican Republic in July 2015. Padres second baseman Jake Cronenworth, who arrived in a deal from the Rays in Dec. 2019, said getting traded for the first time can be jolting for a player.

... In Washington, Soto spent the early part of the season hitting in front of the fading Nelson Cruz before the Nationals moved the more productive Bell into that spot. In San Diego, Soto bats second in front of Manny Machado. Opponents are reluctant to pitch around him, and attack him more aggressively.

“When you have a great hitter, an MVP-caliber player behind you, they don’t want to walk you at all,” Soto said. “There are not any more four-pitch walks. It’s kind of tough when you don’t feel your best at the plate and that’s happening. But you’ve got to keep battling and going through it.”

He remains a work in progress, producing inconsistent results, but the big hits are coming now. A two-run single off Edwin Díaz to extend a 4-0 Padres lead over the Mets in the deciding game of the Wild Card Series. A double off Tony Gonsolin that led to a 1-0 lead in the Padres’ 2-1 victory over the Dodgers in Game 3 of the Division Series. His game-tying double off Nola on Wednesday, which had Petco Park roaring.

“The expectation level for him is off the charts, which is hard to live up to. Coming to a new place, so much is expected of you,” Padres manager Bob Melvin said. “But he has gotten some really big hits for us at big times. And you know he’s probably two at-bats away from going on a tear.”

Soto senses it, too.

“Every at-bat, little by little, I feel better and better,” he said. “It’s pretty close. There’s just one little thing I got to fix.”

What is that little thing? Soto wouldn’t say. But if he finds it, the 2019 version of Soto soon might reappear. A vision from the past, at the ripe old age of 24.

Ken Rosenthal at The Athletic:

Nola threw him a sinker on the inner half. Soto pulled in his hands and ripped a game-tying, 105.7 mph RBI double to right. By the time the inning was complete, the Padres had scored five runs, completing their rally from a 4-0 deficit in an 8-5 victory that evened the series at one game each.

Soto still is only batting .222 with a .560 OPS in 40 plate appearances this postseason, but his numbers are somewhat deceptive. No hitter in these playoffs has hit as many balls 95 mph or more, though a number of players, including the Phillies’ Bryce Harper, have produced higher hard-hit percentages. The Padres know Soto is capable of a major surge at any moment, even though his postseason has been an extension of his September/October, when he batted only .220 with a .726 OPS.

“I think there was a stretch there where he wasn’t playing obviously up to his standards. He wasn’t playing very well at all. I think it was one of the worst stretches of his career,” said the Padres’ Josh Bell, who joined the Nationals in 2021 and accompanied Soto in the trade to San Diego. “As of late, I know that his numbers don’t show it, but he’s squaring up a lot of balls.

“I’ve played with Juan long enough to know he’s the type of guy who is not going to chase. He’d rather take strike three called if it’s a ball off the plate. He’s not going to expand just to put something in play. I know when he’s getting his ‘A’ swing off — and it’s always on strikes — good things happen. Some people will say he’s too passive, but just know when he’s swinging the bat it’s with authority. And when the luck changes, we’re going to be in a really good place.”

“Passive” is an accurate description of Soto during his time with the Padres — he swung at only 34.9 percent of the pitches he saw after the trade through the end of the regular season, the lowest percentage of any player in baseball with 175 plate appearances. Yet, while restricting his swings mostly to strikes, he is hitting for far less power, a development rival evaluators find baffling.

Soto has not hit a home run this postseason, and his double off Nola was only his second extra-base hit. In the 2019 playoffs, he produced a .927 OPS, including five homers and three doubles, in 75 plate appearances. The Nationals ended up winning the World Series.

The Padres want Soto to go to left-center instead of being so pull-oriented, believing an opposite-field approach will help ignite him. Soto hits one drive after another to left-center in batting practice, but he has yet to duplicate that pattern in games. Rival clubs have noticed, and used the changeup as a weapon against him. When Soto is at his best, his barrel lags, creating significant length in his swing plane.

That’s the technical aspect. But the transition Soto underwent in the middle of the season is part of this, too.

Soto spent his first seven years in the Nationals’ organization after signing with the club as an amateur out of the Dominican Republic in July 2015. Padres second baseman Jake Cronenworth, who arrived in a deal from the Rays in Dec. 2019, said getting traded for the first time can be jolting for a player.

... In Washington, Soto spent the early part of the season hitting in front of the fading Nelson Cruz before the Nationals moved the more productive Bell into that spot. In San Diego, Soto bats second in front of Manny Machado. Opponents are reluctant to pitch around him, and attack him more aggressively.

“When you have a great hitter, an MVP-caliber player behind you, they don’t want to walk you at all,” Soto said. “There are not any more four-pitch walks. It’s kind of tough when you don’t feel your best at the plate and that’s happening. But you’ve got to keep battling and going through it.”

He remains a work in progress, producing inconsistent results, but the big hits are coming now. A two-run single off Edwin Díaz to extend a 4-0 Padres lead over the Mets in the deciding game of the Wild Card Series. A double off Tony Gonsolin that led to a 1-0 lead in the Padres’ 2-1 victory over the Dodgers in Game 3 of the Division Series. His game-tying double off Nola on Wednesday, which had Petco Park roaring.

“The expectation level for him is off the charts, which is hard to live up to. Coming to a new place, so much is expected of you,” Padres manager Bob Melvin said. “But he has gotten some really big hits for us at big times. And you know he’s probably two at-bats away from going on a tear.”

Soto senses it, too.

“Every at-bat, little by little, I feel better and better,” he said. “It’s pretty close. There’s just one little thing I got to fix.”

What is that little thing? Soto wouldn’t say. But if he finds it, the 2019 version of Soto soon might reappear. A vision from the past, at the ripe old age of 24.

#2 · October 22, 2022, 8:00 am

The is a lot to unpack in this piece … and different folks can read positive or negative. Given history in WASH prior to 2022 have reason to believe he will be much better than he has shown in so far in SD.

Good that he is making hard contact. However, poor results … maybe because he too passive (or selective) in his swings or are pitchers going to spots he can hit but where they want him to hit. Hard contact is not translating to SLG.

Actually more worried about Bell’s quote suggesting Soto will rather take strike 3 than swing at a pitch he deems outside the strike zone. Not the most team oriented approach if runners are on bases or trying to generate momentum for the team. We all know that reading the umpire’s strike zone is critical to hitters and by ignoring that is not smart.

I would also add that have seen enough of Soto’s AB that his strike zone view is not always the correct view … then if called a strike he mugs / complains. The K-zone may not be perfect but when pitches are fully in the zone and called a strike they are strikes … yet Soto still complains.

SD has him ahead of Machado and WASH had him ahead of Bell … to get him more pitches to hit … yet in both cities in 2022 his hitting is down. Is his approach to swinging at only pitches he considers strikes actually working against him as pitchers not wanting to face the hitter behind Soto with him on base make better pitches (on the corners) thus controlling the AB to Soto’s disadvantage? Maybe after the pitchers began using the more aggressive approach they exposed a flaw in Soto’s approach? If he doesn’t swing he can even foul them off to preserve the AB.

Seems as though pitchers have changed their approaches but Soto has not resulting in 2022 a much lower BA and in SD a much lower SLG.

Something to watch going forward.

LynchMob has reacted to this post.

#3 · October 22, 2022, 1:54 pm

So far this post season, Soto would rank around number 10 in voting for Padre MVP....he needs to move up that ladder REALLY quick if we are going to have a legitimate chance .

Time to turn it on Juan!

Edit: now that I think about it, he's 13 or 14.....he is hitting the ball hard, which is a great sign BUT they need to start falling and producing in the clutch.

We all need to pass our Friar Faith to Juan.

Get it done, baby!

#4 · December 25, 2022, 5:50 am

Ok so took a quick peek at 2024-25 FA class

Juan Soto is going to get paid 15- $525mil is my guess based on age and assumption 2023 and 2024 are Soto like "rebound" yrs for him.. .280/.420/.500 or so... I know we gave up a ton of Capital to get him..way I look at it..we didn't give much to get Xander soooo...

Also FA in 24 are C Sean Murphy/OF Mullins and Reynolds and the much talked about Luis Arraez

? If Soto is Soto in 23 and 24.. Manny/Xander and Tatis are all locked in for 10+ yrs... Do we use that $525 mil on Soto...Or do we go get Murphy + Arraez and ONE of Reynolds/Mullins for roughly the same $$ investment of $525mil? If not less.. what would u do?

#5 · December 25, 2022, 12:09 pm

Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 25, 2022, 5:50 am

Ok so took a quick peek at 2024-25 FA class

Juan Soto is going to get paid 15- $525mil is my guess

Gonna take 15 years at $600M. $40M per season.

#6 · December 25, 2022, 3:59 pm

Does anyone really believe we will be able to sign him and Machado?

I’m guessing the Bogaerts deal was because AJ is expecting to not be able to sign both.

We need to make a decision before the end of this season between Manny and Soto afraid.

I’m beginning to think it will be Soto…one because of his age and two because we sold the Farm to get him.

JasonE135 has reacted to this post.

#7 · December 25, 2022, 4:14 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 25, 2022, 3:59 pm

Does anyone really believe we will be able to sign him and Machado?

In reality, yes. You have Musgrove at $20M, Tatis at $24.29M, Bogaerts at $25.45M, and resign Machado at $35M, and Soto at $40M. Puts SD at $145M in those 5, and Seidler has stated that this current model is sustainable.

So as long as Soto and Machado say yes, money should be OK.

#8 · December 25, 2022, 4:46 pm

Not sure what the model is and what sustainable is in this context.

Current payroll (non-CBT) is about $247MM … if they sustain that level and pay five players $140MM … that leaves $104MM for the remaining on the 26 man roster at less than $5MM / player. Given what we have seen paid to the likes of Clevinger, Manaea, Myers, Drury this offseason … going to be very hard to field a competitive UNLESS the Padres generate a lot of plus performing prospect … and a continuing recycle before they get expensive. Basically, unless the model means keep running the payroll higher to add some quality supporting cast … this would be a top heavy team that would not be great overall.

Odds are they sign Machado and don’t sign Soto.

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#9 · December 25, 2022, 5:56 pm

That’s what I’m thinking.

if we sign Manny and Soto…who pitches besides Musgrove?

Darvish is gonna want 2/65 or even 3/90

Snell….who knows?

A lot of Free Agent starters next year….none of the good ones will be cheap.

Unless Groome,Teheran,Morejon or Weathers suddenly become dependable #2 or #3 starters…we’re gonna be in trouble with 5 guys making $150 mil.

#10 · December 25, 2022, 6:54 pm

Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 25, 2022, 6:54 pm

Quote from fenn68 on December 25, 2022, 4:46 pm

Not sure what the model is and what sustainable is in this context.

Current payroll (non-CBT) is about $247MM … if they sustain that level and pay five players $140MM … that leaves $104MM for the remaining on the 26 man roster at less than $5MM / player. Given what we have seen paid to the likes of Clevinger, Manaea, Myers, Drury this offseason … going to be very hard to field a competitive UNLESS the Padres generate a lot of plus performing prospect … and a continuing recycle before they get expensive. Basically, unless the model means keep running the payroll higher to add some quality supporting cast … this would be a top heavy team that would not be great overall.

Odds are they sign Machado and don’t sign Soto.

We almost got to the World Series with Machado and 1/4 of Soto and a bunch of supporting cast members at Position players.. with only 3 SP and a young BP with 1 star and 1 rookie from JPN find (Suarez)

IF We sign ONE of Machado or Soto long term .. we will have THREE Super stars > than anything we had last yr for 162 season after season for a decade +... even with regression..Xander to 1st Base .. Manny to DH ages 38, 39 40 etc.. those bats should still be + + and Tatis will be towards the end yrs of his prime...

I think Manny (Captain) is the one that stays between he and Soto.. I think signing Xander shows that even if they lose Soto spec capital or not .. It can be justified by Xanders signing..(in a way)

If we are at $247... that is close to the tier 1 level in 2026

Lets assume we resign all 4 + Joe

And we have a similar model to today's

Crone.. 6 yr controlled from the moment he arrive to the MLB..

Grish same

Nola same

Campy same

Azocar same

+ 1 or 2 others Bench

So that's 6 controlled 5-6yr controlled pieces..

2 FA signings (Kim + Carpenter) (possibly 3 Severino)

That's 12-13 .. or all positions accounted for

So 4.. recycle 6.. every 6 yrs (not all at once obviously) but we replace 1 or 2 a yr .. some yrs none some yrs 3..etc.. Some will be easier to replace/upgrade...some Crone Zone harder..answers we fill in with Carpenter/Kim type FA signings..

Example ..next offseason we replace Crone *#1 we trade him for talent be it at the MLB level or prospects.. #2 Merrill comes in and takes his place.... could trade Kim as well and again add talent at the MLB level or top specs for the continuous cyvle.. Azocar/Campy still pre arb.. so no need to replace them.. But With Howell/Mears both excellent defenders at CF ..perhaps Grish (FA in 2024 ) gets moved next offseason..again MLB ready pieces with control or specs further down the line ..

As long as we have the Fearsome 4 some and a guy like Carpenter /+ another like Kim <$10mil

A lineup that has 1 thru 4 elite..followed by a Carpenter ..then Merrill #6 then Kim #7 then a controlled guy like Nola and then say Mears at #9.. still a super difficult lineup to navigate for anyone..

Same applies for SP

We got

1- Joe $20

2. We budget $20-$30 for

3. We need $10-15 mil

4.. controlled arm

5. Controlled arm

6. Controlled arm

BP

Closer ..10 to 15 mil

Set up 8 mil

Garcia type 3 to 5

Controlled aka Wilson

Controlled aka Hill

Controlled aka Morejon

Controlled aka Cristmatt

There is your 13 Pitchers..

Now we have a couple challenges .. our SP capable of being controlled and good enough to keep us in it to win it.. its not arriving til 2024 (Mazur/Wolf)..25 (Lizarraga/Williams) and 2026 (Snelling/Lesko (both here are #1 #2 types..Mazur could be too)

We need ONE of the internal options to at least hold the fort down at #6 for 2023 and 24.. and we should be able to run with it

Now the fun begins (trades will take from strength and address weaknesses).. P development and Health will play huge roles..etc..etc..

So I can see a world in which we keep all 4 and Joe.. and still put forth post season rosters yr in and yr out.. maybe one yr we have Joe /a rookie Lesko and a 2nd year Mazur after a couple injuries etc.. with say Groome at 6th who is in arb 1 by then and is a steady Tim Stouffer type.. so AJP sees we are a bit raw and thin at the AS break and with us 2 5 games behind the Dbacks and .5 ahead of the LAD a d Cubs for the final WC spot and 65 games to play and he pivots at the deadline and brings in (via trade) an expiring rental (think Sonny Gray or like)..who steps in and helps us get to the post season..where as we learned anything g can happened.. a team with all 4 of the Fearsome 4some and an ace like Joe (someone else post 2027) that can stay together and adjust and recycle the pieces around for say a decade should see the post season a d have a shot at WS 7 or 8 out of those 10 yrs...

Quote from fenn68 on December 25, 2022, 4:46 pm

Not sure what the model is and what sustainable is in this context.

Current payroll (non-CBT) is about $247MM … if they sustain that level and pay five players $140MM … that leaves $104MM for the remaining on the 26 man roster at less than $5MM / player. Given what we have seen paid to the likes of Clevinger, Manaea, Myers, Drury this offseason … going to be very hard to field a competitive UNLESS the Padres generate a lot of plus performing prospect … and a continuing recycle before they get expensive. Basically, unless the model means keep running the payroll higher to add some quality supporting cast … this would be a top heavy team that would not be great overall.

Odds are they sign Machado and don’t sign Soto.

We almost got to the World Series with Machado and 1/4 of Soto and a bunch of supporting cast members at Position players.. with only 3 SP and a young BP with 1 star and 1 rookie from JPN find (Suarez)

IF We sign ONE of Machado or Soto long term .. we will have THREE Super stars > than anything we had last yr for 162 season after season for a decade +... even with regression..Xander to 1st Base .. Manny to DH ages 38, 39 40 etc.. those bats should still be + + and Tatis will be towards the end yrs of his prime...

I think Manny (Captain) is the one that stays between he and Soto.. I think signing Xander shows that even if they lose Soto spec capital or not .. It can be justified by Xanders signing..(in a way)

If we are at $247... that is close to the tier 1 level in 2026

Lets assume we resign all 4 + Joe

And we have a similar model to today's

Crone.. 6 yr controlled from the moment he arrive to the MLB..

Grish same

Nola same

Campy same

Azocar same

+ 1 or 2 others Bench

So that's 6 controlled 5-6yr controlled pieces..

2 FA signings (Kim + Carpenter) (possibly 3 Severino)

That's 12-13 .. or all positions accounted for

So 4.. recycle 6.. every 6 yrs (not all at once obviously) but we replace 1 or 2 a yr .. some yrs none some yrs 3..etc.. Some will be easier to replace/upgrade...some Crone Zone harder..answers we fill in with Carpenter/Kim type FA signings..

Example ..next offseason we replace Crone *#1 we trade him for talent be it at the MLB level or prospects.. #2 Merrill comes in and takes his place.... could trade Kim as well and again add talent at the MLB level or top specs for the continuous cyvle.. Azocar/Campy still pre arb.. so no need to replace them.. But With Howell/Mears both excellent defenders at CF ..perhaps Grish (FA in 2024 ) gets moved next offseason..again MLB ready pieces with control or specs further down the line ..

As long as we have the Fearsome 4 some and a guy like Carpenter /+ another like Kim <$10mil

A lineup that has 1 thru 4 elite..followed by a Carpenter ..then Merrill #6 then Kim #7 then a controlled guy like Nola and then say Mears at #9.. still a super difficult lineup to navigate for anyone..

Same applies for SP

We got

1- Joe $20

2. We budget $20-$30 for

3. We need $10-15 mil

4.. controlled arm

5. Controlled arm

6. Controlled arm

Closer ..10 to 15 mil

Set up 8 mil

Garcia type 3 to 5

Controlled aka Wilson

Controlled aka Hill

Controlled aka Morejon

Controlled aka Cristmatt

There is your 13 Pitchers..

Now we have a couple challenges .. our SP capable of being controlled and good enough to keep us in it to win it.. its not arriving til 2024 (Mazur/Wolf)..25 (Lizarraga/Williams) and 2026 (Snelling/Lesko (both here are #1 #2 types..Mazur could be too)

We need ONE of the internal options to at least hold the fort down at #6 for 2023 and 24.. and we should be able to run with it

Now the fun begins (trades will take from strength and address weaknesses).. P development and Health will play huge roles..etc..etc..

So I can see a world in which we keep all 4 and Joe.. and still put forth post season rosters yr in and yr out.. maybe one yr we have Joe /a rookie Lesko and a 2nd year Mazur after a couple injuries etc.. with say Groome at 6th who is in arb 1 by then and is a steady Tim Stouffer type.. so AJP sees we are a bit raw and thin at the AS break and with us 2 5 games behind the Dbacks and .5 ahead of the LAD a d Cubs for the final WC spot and 65 games to play and he pivots at the deadline and brings in (via trade) an expiring rental (think Sonny Gray or like)..who steps in and helps us get to the post season..where as we learned anything g can happened.. a team with all 4 of the Fearsome 4some and an ace like Joe (someone else post 2027) that can stay together and adjust and recycle the pieces around for say a decade should see the post season a d have a shot at WS 7 or 8 out of those 10 yrs...

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