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Juan Soto
#21 · April 19, 2023, 9:24 am
Stepping away from the performance side of Soto … took a quick look at the deal he (and his agent Boras) turned down from WASH.
The headline amount was 15 years for $440MM. However, Boras knows how to maximize monies for his clients. So, if you drop the first two years where Soto is still under control via arbitration … the 13 FA years were priced at $390MM+/- or a $30MM AAV. I could see where that was considered a low ball offer by Boras considering at that time Soto was considered the best hitter in baseball.
A year later … $30MM is being tossed around a number of FA … and given the rate of salary escalation $30 MM will be a real low ball in even 8 years (when Soto should be at his peak) and then lower over by the end (at about age 39).
Guessing Boras saw a much higher AAV initially with an opt out after 5 years giving Soto an option to get even a bigger deal at age 31.
Given Soto’s performance in 2022-23, going to be hard to convince Boras to agree to an extension unless Soto has an immediate bounce back and the Padres really want to gamble on a future bounce back.
#22 · April 21, 2023, 1:06 pm
Joe Poz, my favorite sportswriter, sees what we see ...
Friday Rewind: So Far Soto's Just So-So
APR 21, 2023
Domo Arigato, Mr. Juan Soto
OK, that subtitle actually does not match what I’m about to write on Juan Soto … but I got it stuck in my head and I felt it was only right to put it in your head.
I don’t understand what’s happening with Juan Soto. And look, it’s still super early in the season, and we’re dealing with extremely small sample sizes but … the guy is hitting .183 and slugging below .400. This is after last season when he came to San Diego and for 52 games, hit .236 and slugged below .400.
What gives? At ages 21 and 22, Soto was channeling Ted Williams. Now, all due respect, he’s channeling Ted Sizemore. How can we make sense of any of this?
Well, I was talking to someone in the game last year, and he said something very interesting about Soto: He said that Soto has become TOO selective. We all know that Soto has, no exaggeration, among the greatest eyes in the history of baseball — great eyes meaning that he has an almost supernatural ability to differentiate between a ball and a strike. And, sure enough, even as Soto struggles this year, he again leads the league in walks. He may lead the league in walks every season for the next decade.
But what made Juan Soto so great was not his ability to walk. No, it was his unique ability to spit on bad pitches and crunch good ones. The aforementioned Ted Williams famously had three rules to hit by, and Rule #1 was “Get a good ball to hit.” He would sometimes say that the other two rules didn’t even matter.
Well, Soto still spits on bad pitches — his walk rate, even in the early part of this season, is as high as it has ever been. He very rarely goes outside the zone. And he can still crunch good pitches; his hard-hit percentage so far in 2023 is 53.8%, the highest of his career.
So what gives? Well, he’s just letting way too many good pitches go by. He’s only swinging at 54% of pitches in the strike zone, among the lowest in baseball. It’s also a huge 8% drop from 2021, when he looked like the best young hitter we’d seen in a long time. He’s swinging and missing a bit more often, too … this has led to the highest strikeout rate of his career.
He has also been unlucky — he has already hit 12 100-plus-mph shots that were turned into outs. His expected slugging percentage is .550, much more in line with what we’d expect from Soto. I feel confident that will even out over time. But I’d still say Soto just has to be more aggressive at the plate.
#23 · April 21, 2023, 2:15 pm
Quote from LynchMob on April 21, 2023, 1:06 pmJoe Poz, my favorite sportswriter, sees what we see ...
He has also been unlucky — he has already hit 12 100-plus-mph shots that were turned into outs. His expected slugging percentage is .550, much more in line with what we’d expect from Soto. I feel confident that will even out over time. But I’d still say Soto just has to be more aggressive at the plate.
I am going to get slaughtered for this again; however, I am going to say that he is just more aggressive when batting in the 3 or 4 spot in the line up. I have posted his career numbers in the past, but here is the small sample size for 2023.
In the 2 spot - .103 BA, .278 OBP, .241 SLG with an OPS of .519. 7 BBs versus 6 Ks. 36 plate appearances.
In the 3 spot - .238 BA, .418 OBP, ..500 SLG with an OPS of .918. 13 BBs versus 13 Ks. 55 plate appearances.
3 of his 4 HRs and 2 of his 3 2Bs have come in the 3rd spot.
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#24 · April 21, 2023, 3:08 pm
I'm with you Booster. Soto has ZERO value batting in the 2 hole.
Bat him 4th. Let him take a boat load of massive cuts every AB.
#25 · April 21, 2023, 9:03 pm
He can take “massive cuts” anywhere in the lineup.
His passiveness is not limited to where he’s at in the order.
I don’t care where we hit him….but he needs to start hitting.
Unfortunately it’s not just Soto.
Kim…Carpenter…Soto….all under .200.
Machado….Cronenworth….Grisham….all under .225.
Let’s face it…. Xander is the ONLY one producing on offense.
22 games in and we can’t hit.
It’s becoming embarrassing
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#26 · April 21, 2023, 9:18 pm
Quote from MrPadre19 on April 21, 2023, 9:03 pmHe can take “massive cuts” anywhere in the lineup.
His passiveness is not limited to where he’s at in the order.
And I disagree, it changes his mindset, and screws with his game.
Melvin, just bat him 4th and leave him there!
#27 · April 22, 2023, 2:36 am
I don’t understand the flip of Soto and Machado in the line-up putting Soto back to 2nd. At #3, Soto in 55 PA had an OPS at .918 but at #2 only .475 in 39 PA. However, from watching most of the game even his work at #3 was “soft/non-clutch” … sort of a case where the stats don’’t really align with the impact on the game.
Still with no one except Bogarts hitting … batting Soto #3 still seems better. I don’t want Bogaerts out of #4 which has been his most productive slot throughout his career … at least if Soto walks they have a hitter that might move him around. Plus in 35 AB vs LHP, Soto has a paltry .493 OPS … better to have a good RHH behind him.
Watching Soto’s approach (either #2 or #3) this can’t be the Soto of 2021 and prior. His issue is more than passive … it looks to be a combination of pitch recognition and a bigger swing and miss rate on good pitches. First his strike zone seems to have become smaller in his mind than the real strike zone and he is taking clear strikes on the corner … and he clearly thought they were balls. Add then his in zone swing an miss seems way up for an elite HITTER. So, not really seeing passive but seeing an issue with his pitch judgement and swing.
Yesterday was a good example with Tatis on 1B and 2 outs … he took a FB right over the plate without a swing for strike 3 … not something the “old” Soto would have done in that situation. Then the one AB where twice he headed to 1B thinking he had ball four on pitchers that were clearly strikes on the outside corner … both the “old” Soto would have laced into LF for hits.
Hope he comes around but feel as though we bought a Ferrari and got delivered a VW bug … and are being told to like it because it gets good mileage. Padres bought an impact hitter and get a guy with stats but not impact.
#28 · April 22, 2023, 12:53 pm
Quote from fenn68 on April 22, 2023, 2:36 amI don’t understand the flip of Soto and Machado in the line-up putting Soto back to 2nd. At #3, Soto in 55 PA had an OPS at .918 but at #2 only .475 in 39 PA. However, from watching most of the game even his work at #3 was “soft/non-clutch” … sort of a case where the stats don’’t really align with the impact on the game.
Still with no one except Bogarts hitting … batting Soto #3 still seems better. I don’t want Bogaerts out of #4 which has been his most productive slot throughout his career … at least if Soto walks they have a hitter that might move him around. Plus in 35 AB vs LHP, Soto has a paltry .493 OPS … better to have a good RHH behind him.
Watching Soto’s approach (either #2 or #3) this can’t be the Soto of 2021 and prior. His issue is more than passive … it looks to be a combination of pitch recognition and a bigger swing and miss rate on good pitches. First his strike zone seems to have become smaller in his mind than the real strike zone and he is taking clear strikes on the corner … and he clearly thought they were balls. Add then his in zone swing an miss seems way up for an elite HITTER. So, not really seeing passive but seeing an issue with his pitch judgement and swing.
Yesterday was a good example with Tatis on 1B and 2 outs … he took a FB right over the plate without a swing for strike 3 … not something the “old” Soto would have done in that situation. Then the one AB where twice he headed to 1B thinking he had ball four on pitchers that were clearly strikes on the outside corner … both the “old” Soto would have laced into LF for hits.
Hope he comes around but feel as though we bought a Ferrari and got delivered a VW bug … and are being told to like it because it gets good mileage. Padres bought an impact hitter and get a guy with stats but not impact.
In the on-deck circle before he gets up to bat Soto takes beautiful, blazing quick, short and powerful swings. When he actually gets up to bat his swing is a lot longer and slower. He is trying to hard.
#29 · April 22, 2023, 8:19 pm
2 hit game
#30 · April 22, 2023, 11:31 pm
Quote from Henry Silvestre on April 22, 2023, 8:19 pm2 hit game
From the 3 hole.
As Booster pointed out, different mind set.
Wake up Bob!