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If $$ is your concern..here is my roster construction
#21 · August 5, 2022, 1:19 pm
What would it take to re-sign Clevinger? Certainly, he will not be paid as a #1 starter or maybe not even a high #2. I think that salary for a high #3 may be in the 12-15M range. Clevinger has never made more than the $8M his is this year and that's almost twice as much as he made in his last year with Cleveland. Given his age and injury history, these are considerations in an open market despite what we hope is a strong finish in 2022.
In our favor are a number of outside factors. (1) He loves living in San Diego; (2) he has Melvin and Niebla to support him; and (3) the Padres have been very patient with him and given him every opportunity to come back to form irrespective of how desperately they needed him, i.e., they have thought of his health first. For these reasons, I think we can get a bit of a discount and I'm looking at a 2 year deal with an club option for a 3rd year. I would go $11 and 14 for the first 2 years, 16 for the 3rd with 3 million buyout. I'm hoping he takes something like that and solids our starting rotation for at least the next 2 years.
#22 · August 5, 2022, 1:20 pm
Agree Suarez probably opts in and guessing Martinez also opts in (his work as a long reliever ... although good ... probably does not elevate his value beyond the $6.5MM due him for 2023).
If they both opt in (Profar opts out) ... my analysis of space under the CBT threshold dips to abut $4MM. So Siedler's first call is the willingness to go past the Tier 1 threshold (that would be the third time in a row and penalties would really mount).
If the marching orders to Preller are work to stay under and will re-evaluate after making the first wave of moves (adds and deletes) ... then we should see a set of trades to clear more AAV mixed with moves to fill the holes.
Padres will be entering the winter then with no LF/1B/DH and down 2 SP. They can reduce those 5 holes by position moves by Tatis, Kim, Cronenworth and keeping all three in the line-up. Internally filling the other 2 position player holes would need Campusano and Rosario succeed (high risk for rookies). The two SP slots probably line-up Martinez and Morejon but would expect both to be on innings management (and Morejon is always an injury risk).
So, in my mind need to veteran quality add (or two) at a minimum. One bat / one SP but that will require some of the current roster with high AAV to be moved.
Best options are: Hader (est $15MM in ARB); Pomeranz ($8MM); Martinez ($6.4MM); and Suarez ($5.5 MM); and Alfaro (est $4MM in ARB). Did not include Kim since trading him just creates another opening that does not help this exercise. Of that group, only Hader has a chance to bring back someone to fill a hole and a lesser AAV ... the others are moves for prospects.
The FA world give options but first looking at Padre FA ... estimated cost AAV to resign: Bell ($16MM); Clevinger ($13MM); Manaea ($13MM); Profar ($12MM); Myers (?????); Drury ($2-3 MM); Mazara ($2-3MM); Johnson ($3-4MM).
Tough mix and match to field a competitive team and stay under the CBT.
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#23 · August 5, 2022, 1:23 pm
Quote from Randy Manese on August 5, 2022, 1:19 pmWhat would it take to re-sign Clevinger? Certainly, he will not be paid as a #1 starter or maybe not even a high #2. I think that salary for a high #3 may be in the 12-15M range. Clevinger has never made more than the $8M his is this year and that's almost twice as much as he made in his last year with Cleveland. Given his age and injury history, these are considerations in an open market despite what we hope is a strong finish in 2022.
In our favor are a number of outside factors. (1) He loves living in San Diego; (2) he has Melvin and Niebla to support him; and (3) the Padres have been very patient with him and given him every opportunity to come back to form irrespective of how desperately they needed him, i.e., they have thought of his health first. For these reasons, I think we can get a bit of a discount and I'm looking at a 2 year deal with an club option for a 3rd year. I would go $11 and 14 for the first 2 years, 16 for the 3rd with 3 million buyout. I'm hoping he takes something like that and solids our starting rotation for at least the next 2 years.
That would be the zone I see. Plus I think he is really likes the pitching coach who was with him in Cleveland.
#24 · August 5, 2022, 1:26 pm
Quote from MrPadre19 on August 5, 2022, 12:48 pmQuote from fenn68 on August 4, 2022, 6:11 pmQuote from MrPadre19 on August 4, 2022, 5:26 pmI think AJ learned the value of having a dominant Closer.
Doubt he trades Hader……possible of course,but.
Pretty sure he already knew … the strategic question do you want to pay $15MM (est in arb) for Hader AND $8MM AAV for Pomeranz … while Castillo is waiting in the wings.
Both are FA after 2023. That est $8MM difference could be used to sweeten the pot for SP … or signing Bell, Profar. The alternative is trading Pomeranz … still clears about $8MM AAV and that helps … but probably not enough to address SP / LF / and still sign Bell … even with trading Kim.
I picked on Hader because he consumes a BIG AAV and has some “adequate” replacements in Pomeranz and Castillo. Plus signing a Bell level 1B/DH was big part of a strong offense … to cover some weak #4 - 5 SP.
Keep Hader … trade Pomeranz … maybe get Profar - Clevinger - and Myers (at $8MM) and still need a couple of “minor” deletes.
So from a team perspective is Hader / Myers > Bell / Pomeranz?
Good reason to get Pomeranz back and pitching.We need to see him stay healthy and be effective for us.....and for other GM's.
He won't hold much trade value if he doesn't pitch well after missing a full season worth of games.His performance the rest of this year is critical for this year...and for the decision to be made for next year.
Yeh, a lot rides on Pomeranz returning and showing he is healthy first and foremost ... being effect is a bonus in the final month. Given the need for closer types ... and Pomeranz' history of effectiveness when healthy ... he should have a buyer (not much of a return other than CBT space.
Alternatively, he may give confidence to move Hader.
#25 · August 5, 2022, 1:36 pm
That's what I was thinking...if we have to move one we would save more $ and get better return for Hader obviously.
Then again we take more risk of loss of performance by keeping Pomeranz.
#26 · August 5, 2022, 2:45 pm
Quote from Randy Manese on August 5, 2022, 1:19 pmWhat would it take to re-sign Clevinger?
His performance and performance history is too good. Someone will offer him either a great 2 year deal 16m-18m, or a good 3 year deal. Which should take us out of the running. He'd have to leave money on the table to resign with us.
#27 · August 5, 2022, 2:48 pm
Quote from Personal Fable on August 5, 2022, 2:45 pmQuote from Randy Manese on August 5, 2022, 1:19 pmWhat would it take to re-sign Clevinger?
His performance and performance history is too good. Someone will offer him either a great 2 year deal 16m-18m, or a good 3 year deal. Which should take us out of the running. He'd have to leave money on the table to resign with us.
He absolutely loves San Diego if AJP gives him a 2/24 + 1/18 or $5 buyout type deal he would sign it...
I am not sold on Martinez opting out at all.. his salary as a sometimes SP sometimes RP non closer.. mid leverage type is worth about what he is getting paid and he risks not being back or going to a place that is not SD... If anything I see Mart as reworking his deal so its 💯 guaranteed..
#28 · August 5, 2022, 2:57 pm
I am not too worried about 2023 SP.. I am more so about 2024 when Yu leaves.. we need to find a replacement for him . He will be older too.. AND Snell if he continues to pitch well will require some $$ to keep as well... Best thing that can happen between now and 2023-24 FA is for one of Wethers/Groome or Knehr to claim one SP as their own ..or show very well in a Nick Martinez type role in 2023... not sure how Manea is viewed in MLB ..if he is a 12 mil or less type SP I do like him as an inning eating 4th or 5th option.. of he needs to be a #3 playoff type SP for us I don't think he is worth the 15-18 per that entails .
#29 · August 5, 2022, 3:02 pm
Compared Zach Davies vs Sean Manaea and look at them numbers almost identical
Davies only made $1.4mil in 2022..so yeah AJP can go get a Davies type for less than 1/2 what Manaea or even less will get in FA just saying
#30 · August 5, 2022, 3:09 pm
If healthy Clevenger is 💯 the better resign option to Manaea
Clev is definetely a top 3 in rotation post season type arm.. whereas Manaea is more of a 3-5th in season SP.. who is upgradeable at a deadline.. for a team going with a weaker 1st half rotation and ramping it up +1 at the deadline..like Seattle this yr..