Quote from fenn68 on July 31, 2022, 10:18 am

Need to add in at least $20MM for the tax calculation that covers players in the minors / IL, buyouts, and the big  ticket item of player benefits and a contribution to the MLB "pre-arbitration pool".

Don't think the cash salaries are the Padres worry ... more the CBT threshold ... so the entire roster should be viewed in AAV terms. To that end Tatis is "only" $24.3MM and Snell is "only" $10MM.

So COULD fit in Soto with that extension level ... but not sure that is a winning team from an all around roster structure .. clearly no depth (traded the top prospects) and questionable fills in CF, DH, C, #4-5 SP, and RP.

Quote from Jeremy Hill on July 31, 2022, 11:42 am

2023 commitments assuming Hosmer and Suarez opt in and Profar and Martinez opt out.

Machado 30m/30m AAV

Darvish 18m/21.5m AAV

Snell 16m/10m AAV

Hosmer 13m/18m AAV

Pomeranz 8m/8.5m AAV

Tatis 7m/24.3m AAV

Kim 7m/7m AAV

Suarez 5m/5.5m AAV

Garcia 3.5m/3.5m AAV

Myers 1m buyout

So that's 108.5m and a 129.3m AAV. If we do land Soto and resign Musgrove you could probably expect to add 45m to both numbers. That puts you at 153.5m and 174.3m.

Arbitration eligible players (2022 salary listed as reference point).

Adams 925k  Arb 2

Alfaro 2.725m Arb 3

Baez 705k Pre-Arb

Beaty 730k Arb 1

Crismatt 721.5k Pre-Arb

Cronenworth 757k Arb 1

Grisham 729.3k Arb 1

Hill 1.325m Arb 2

Johnson 3m Arb 1

Lamet 4.775m Arb 3

Morejon 704.5k Arb 1

Nola 727k Arb 1

Voit 5.45m Arb 3

Gore/Abrams/Ruiz/Batten/Wilson/ 700k/Pre-Arb

There are some obvious non-tender candidates there, but conservatively I would say you're looking at 20m plus for the guys you want to bring back. That puts you at 173.5m and 194.3m. Add in another 20m for benefits, minor leaguers, and the pre-arb bonus pool and you're up to 193.5m and 214.3m

C- Alfaro/Nola

1B- Hosmer

2B- Cronenworth

3B- Machado

SS- Tatis/Kim

LF-???

CF- Grisham/Ruiz/Tatis

RF- Soto

DH- Voit or ???

Bench- Nola/Alfaro, Grisham/Ruiz, 2 more minimum types?

Rotation

1. Musgrove
2. Darvish
3. Snell
4. ???
5. ???

Bullpen- Pomeranz, Garcia, Suarez, Crismatt, Johnson, Baez, Wilson, Castillo

If we're operating under the assumption that we get Soto you have to assume at least 1 of Gore or Morejon is headed back plus Abrams and others. So, you would have maybe 20m to work with and likely need an OF, 2+ starters to fill out the rotation and give yourself some depth, maybe a DH and hopefully some bullpen and bench upgrades. I would say that would be almost impossible to pull off while staying under the cap. If we trade for Soto it's because Seidler is prepared to take the tax hit. It's not going to work otherwise.

Quote from fenn68 on July 31, 2022, 12:25 pm

Yeh, that is the way I see it ... plus if they got Soto this year they most likely would exceed the 2022 threshold making 2023 the third year if they tried to fill out the roster ... not little penalties at that time but big ones.

Sure you can say just drop some of the bad contracts ... but how has that worked out in the past ... not so easy (see Hosmer, Myers)

Quote from Randy Manese on August 4, 2022, 12:49 am

Looking at the potential free agents after the 2022 season, looks like many of the top paid closers for contending teams will be on that list - this is where the Hader pick-up can pay big dividends, especially if Pomeranz , Johnson and Morejon are healthy and we can augment with Crismatt, Wilson, J. Castillo, Garcia, Knehr, Scott, Baez, Hill, Weathers and if they opt in, Suarez and Nick Martinez, whose also a candidate for the rotation.   Also, there is always someone who unexpectedly pops up and becomes a prize reliever - maybe Cosgrove or Lugo- or even a Dustin Snider or Alan Mundo.  I think the bullpen will be one of our least worries next year given the experience some of the younger players got this year.  Don't expect Adams or Stammen back.

Likewise, there could be some bargains had in some of the SP available - maybe Martin Perez, Jose Quintana or Zach Davies who could fill out the bottom of a 6 man rotation, assuming we re-sign Clevinger and add a little money to keep Martinez - Darvish, Musgrove, Snell, Clevinger, Martinez being the starting 5.  Not as good as what we have now, but it's possible we'll unearth someone who will surprise us as a key starter in this rotation.  Maybe there is even hope for a further Lawson comeback.

If the choice is between Bell and Drury, then I think we can get Drury at a decent price since he's never made more than 1.3 Million per year.  A lot will be based on how he hits for the remainder of the year.  If he performs well, he'll be a valuable bat at several positions.  Probably will sign for less than a third of what it would take to retain Bell.

We have so many FA's and arbitration eligible players that not all will survive the November roster setting.  If we win the big one, then it will be very interesting on who tries to cash in on that event.  I expect Preller to be very busy at season's end to move some of these arbitration eligible players, which may include Alfaro and Grisham.  It all depends on how they finish and what the budget is going to look like to keep us close to the AAV limit for next year.

By the way, the Padres currently have 31 pitchers on the IL throughout their minor league system, including 2022 draftees Lesko and Williams.  Some of these will be back to expected form in 2023 and several others have shown sufficient growth, although at times maddeningly inconsistent,  to merit promotions to higher levels, like Wolf, Vela, Lizarraga, Iriarte and others.  It will be interesting to see who is protected from the Rule 5.

 

Quote from fenn68 on August 4, 2022, 5:00 am

Padres will have address the team’s FA (and potential FA) at the end of the season in the limits of payroll and any perceived ability to replace them internally or via FA … just because they are out there does not mean Padres have any advantage in signing them (at their price).

First the opt out guys’ decisions will impact replacement need priorities and money available to distribute. To that end:

Profar (now $6.5MM going to $7.5MM in 2023) … with his performance almost a lock to opt out … using Canha’s deal last winter as a comp … might be seeing a 3 year guarantee at $12MM per.

Martinez (now $6.0MM going to $6.5MM in 2023) … last two months will be key in his decision … but at his age 31+ he may want to get a guaranteed deal over the opt in / buyout deal he has now … hard to gauge the market for a long RP / maybe SP … but without proving his SP chops … $6.5MM may be a good deal for him. Maybe Padres re-write the deal into a guaranteed deal and that keeps him without much extra money. This one is hard to read Martinez’ view of the deal/market.

Suarez (now $6MM going to $5MM) … given his injury time a good chance he does not opt out and use 2023 to build value on a winning team … but he too is in his early 30s so  his last two months and reading the market might swing his decision. $5MM is pretty good for his 2022 work.

Good chance we see Martinez and Suarez opt in … unless they have an ultra aggressive agent.

Quote from fenn68 on August 4, 2022, 5:19 am

Of the pure FA:

Bell ($10MM in 2022) … should garner a $16MM/yr, 3-4 year deal.

Myers ($20MM) … no idea on his market value but maybe $8MM/1 year?

Clevinger ($8MM) … past injury has not really depressed the market for SP in the past few years … a strong two months will likely push him to at least the $12MM+ range with the wild card being years.

Manaea ($9.8MM) … again the next two months matter but maybe $12MM on the FA market given his past plus his durability.

Johnson ($3MM) … with the RP options for the Padres and the payroll Padres may just pass on him … the $3MM may be close to his FA value for 1 year.

Mazara (minimum) … fading productivity as the season progressed and what looks to be minimal playing time going forward should depress his FA market so will remain low cost … not sure how he fits in the Padres plans …

Drury ($0.9MM) … next two months really big for him setting FA value … he was having a career year (but in CINN bandbox park) that was well over his history. If playing at PETCO (and the larger environments of LA/SF) really depresses his productivity his FA price tag should remain low on a 1 year deal.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on August 4, 2022, 7:45 am

FA class is deep at SS and SP...But thin elsewhere..could work to our advantage...Nimmo CF could be a target..that fits right into our team..He likely gets $$ = Profar ..and could argue Nimmo at CF > Bell at 1st...

If deadline thought us something is Bell 1B types are of less interest to teams so maybe an extra yr 4 vs 3.. at $13mil gets it done.. or $14.. (vs 15/16 @ 3yrs)..

Not too worried about 23 right now..

Quote from Randy Manese on August 4, 2022, 9:29 am

A little confusing on whether Johnson is. a free agent in 2023 or 2026.  Spotrac, which is usually pretty accurate on these things, has him arbitration eligible beginning in 2023 and then a free agent in 2026 - same with Baseball Reference, which is less reliable.  Cot's contracts does not list a status for Johnson - usually indicates upcoming arbitration eligible or free agent.  Either way, I believe Johnson will re-sign for much the same amount as he makes now.  We need his mix of pitches from the right side to offset other RHP relievers we have or will have on the staff in 2023.

At almost 30, Drury may want to find a home for the next year or so.  If he can keep his wRC+ above 115 for the rest of the year, I think he's worth a one year with a club option for 2024 somewhere in the range of 3-5M.  Petco typically depresses incoming player's batting and slugging averages, so key will be keeping his OBP up around 330, hitting well on the road and continuing to hit LHP hard.  He can plug a lot of holes and give key players a rest although it could be argued that Eguy potentially could do the same thing, however, putting a rookie in that kind of scenario is dicey.

In this scenario, Kim either remains at SS (Tatis moves to the OF) or is traded (Tatis or Cronenworth to SS) to get under the luxury tax level.

 

 

 

Quote from BoosterSD on August 4, 2022, 9:53 am

I think AJ should chase a young controllable OFer like Cal Mitchell from PIT. Not sure if we could work something along the lines of Campusano for Mitchell straight up, or if we would need to add another prospect or two. I liked his swing when he played against SD earlier in the year, and he is from SD. That would allow Soto to go back to LF, and Mitchell could go to RF. Plus he would be cost controlled for 5-6 years.