Quote from fenn68 on August 4, 2022, 12:21 pm

Let us enjoy 2022 with this group (not losing sight of this rare moment in time for the Padres / fans.)

Listen on discussion focusing first on the 2023 returnees.

Position players: (not debating the position they play at this point) but a line-up that has Soto - Tatis - Machado in the middle of the line-up supported by Kim - Cronenworth - Grisham - Alfaro for 7 slots is going to be hard to beat with just “average” types in the remaining two slots. So maybe going big on another bat (or moving one out) may not be the most strategic plan. Because,

Starting Pitching may be just the opposite with Musgrove, Darvish, and Snell leaving a huge void for the 4th and 5th starters. As it is any internal choice is pure speculation on being good … and needing two … major problem.

Theme is the 7 returning bats … there every day … can cover the remaining two slots but no one can cover a SP hole. -2 quality SP will lose the team more games than -2 position players. Plus getting a respectable additional bat may be a lot cheaper than a respectable SP (given the market for SP is always high).

With the returnees .. and not an unlimited payroll space … I might focus first on adding 1 SP (maybe 2) with the focus on re-signing Clevinger … then go for a veteran lower cost option (Davies name keeps popping up and he may work as #5). Not going to rely on Morejon or Weathers … even Martinez from what I have seen would be a gamble as a starter.

After that, target some mid-range bats … could be for a number positions given some positional flexibility with Tatis, Kim, Cronenworth. Just my bias, no pure DH type … so LF or 1B types. I would push for Profar who is a positive for the club … is productive … and can cover LF/1B/DH easily and probably CF/2B if pushed.

Hard to project the internal prospect as rookies in a playoff push … but Rosario and Campusano are position to be contributors … if want to gamble on them v spending on a FA would save some dollars to put on the FA they are trying to sign.

So for me have 4 needs (2 SP / 2 position players) so re-sign Profar, re-sign Clevinger both would positive moves to keep the team cohesive then address the 5th SP and the last position need with what is left money wise. Those two don’t have to be world beaters.

As I suggested before with a deep bullpen moving one of Hader or Pomeranz may be a good plan to free up more money. The non-traded plus a mix of Castillo - Hill - Cosgrove  - Morejon (if not starting) should adequately cover LHRP.

Quote from Randy Manese on August 4, 2022, 12:33 pm

Totally agree - this team, when everyone is healthy and on the field, is a juggernaut.  Might not see the quality of bats/arms for a couple of years into the future.  Let's enjoy the remainder of the season.

Also agree that there will always be players available, for whatever reason, who can't wait to be on a team like San Diego  with a manager like Melvin - may even take a discount.  Let's hope that extends to Clevinger, Profar and beyond; I'm looking at more than a one-year contract for Clevinger.  Profar is already signed, but can ask for more by hinting that he will opt out- we'll see what kind of team player he is.  SP in 23 will be the key but I wouldn't be surprised if we can extend Darvish for his last productive year before he retires.  That would give time for Lesko and others to develop.

Quote from Personal Fable on August 4, 2022, 12:58 pm

Soto will be resigned. No doubt about it. Padres looked into the future and saw the opportunity additional revenue streams provide before anyone else. New money will pay the entirety of his contract. 35-38-40m. 3 players earning 100m will not be challenging to team budgets. A 370m revenue team today is a 440+ revenue team in a few years and if ownership wants to win that's a .6*Revenue payroll.

Understating the prospects we included in the Soto/Bell deal. Yes it's 2.5 years of Soto, but that deals not worth it without the inclusion of Bell. Bell's the best 1B FA in an old class. He's not Freeman or Olson he can still get 16m on the open market. Outlier 2020 Bell's last 3 would be 3bWAR, 3bWAR, 5bWAR pace (fWAR hates him though). Throw out 16m/5 and hope he bites.

Quote from fenn68 on August 4, 2022, 2:00 pm

Quote from Randy Manese on August 4, 2022, 9:29 am

A little confusing on whether Johnson is. a free agent in 2023 or 2026.  Spotrac, which is usually pretty accurate on these things, has him arbitration eligible beginning in 2023 and then a free agent in 2026 - same with Baseball Reference, which is less reliable.  Cot's contracts does not list a status for Johnson - usually indicates upcoming arbitration eligible or free agent.  Either way, I believe Johnson will re-sign for much the same amount as he makes now.  We need his mix of pitches from the right side to offset other RHP relievers we have or will have on the staff in 2023.

At almost 30, Drury may want to find a home for the next year or so.  If he can keep his wRC+ above 115 for the rest of the year, I think he's worth a one year with a club option for 2024 somewhere in the range of 3-5M.  Petco typically depresses incoming player's batting and slugging averages, so key will be keeping his OBP up around 330, hitting well on the road and continuing to hit LHP hard.  He can plug a lot of holes and give key players a rest although it could be argued that Eguy potentially could do the same thing, however, putting a rookie in that kind of scenario is dicey.

In this scenario, Kim either remains at SS (Tatis moves to the OF) or is traded (Tatis or Cronenworth to SS) to get under the luxury tax level.

 

 

 

Roster Resource and MLBTR has Johnson a FA after 2022. I think the confusion may be the fact that going into 2022 he only had 2 years ML service time (implying that there was control until he hit six years BUT I think his signing a FA contract from Japan might override and that was through this year.

Interesting to see how that plays out … great if he is controlled via arbitration … with the crowd potential in the pen … either he or another arm would be a good trade chip. Might now want him back at something over $3MM via ARB when he will be 32 and coming off injury

Quote from fenn68 on August 4, 2022, 2:37 pm

How to manipulate the roster to re-sign Profar ($12MM) .. re-sign Bell ($16MM) … re-sign Clevinger ($12MM)?

First how willing is Siedler to go over the CBT threshold for a 3rd straight year?

Second did Martinez and Suarez opt out? Assuming Profar did. If they do … opens about $17 MM opens … enough to sign Bell. Then still need about $25MM to re-sign Profar and Clevinger. IF the CBT is important … need to move Hader and either Kim or Pomeranz and maybe a smaller piece like Alfaro or Garcia. All should have trade value for prospects or league minimum ML players.

If Martinez and Suarez opt in … probably need to trade them of save the payroll space … they too should have trade value.

No easy to pull off but COULD end up with depending on the trades:

Alfaro / Campusano, Bell, Cronenworth, Tatis, Machado, Profar, Grisham, Soto and a variable DH with Rosario and some combo a league minimum types.

SP of Musgrove, Darvish, Snell, Clevinger, and Morejon … pen would be still deep but closer would Pomeranz or ?

That should be good enough to be one of the best teams in the NL while staying under the CBT threshold … and get it re-set for 2024 and re-signing Soto plus SP to replace (re-sign) Darvish and Snell.

IT COULD WORK!

Quote from MrPadre19 on August 4, 2022, 5:26 pm

I think AJ learned the value of having a dominant Closer.

Doubt he trades Hader……possible of course,but.

Quote from fenn68 on August 4, 2022, 6:11 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on August 4, 2022, 5:26 pm

I think AJ learned the value of having a dominant Closer.

Doubt he trades Hader……possible of course,but.

Pretty sure he already knew … the strategic question do you want to pay $15MM (est in arb) for Hader AND $8MM AAV for Pomeranz … while Castillo is waiting in the wings.

Both are FA after 2023. That est $8MM difference could be used to sweeten the pot for SP … or signing Bell, Profar. The alternative is trading Pomeranz … still clears about $8MM AAV and that helps … but probably not enough to address SP / LF / and still sign Bell … even with trading Kim.

I picked on Hader because he consumes a BIG AAV and has some “adequate” replacements in Pomeranz and Castillo. Plus signing a Bell level 1B/DH was big part of a strong offense … to cover some weak #4 - 5 SP.

Keep Hader … trade Pomeranz … maybe get Profar - Clevinger - and Myers (at $8MM) and still need a couple of “minor” deletes.

So from a team perspective is Hader / Myers > Bell / Pomeranz?

Quote from Randy Manese on August 5, 2022, 12:39 pm

I think Suarez opts in - injured, missed a good chunk of the season,  doesn't have a track record and will be 32 years old next year t-- to demand more than $5M.  If he has a very good year in 2023, then likely he's a free agent anyway.

With regard to the trade of either Hader or Pomeranz, not sure there will be a very big market for Pomeranz given his injury history and his contract.  While it is true there are a lot of high profile teams that will be looking to pay top dollars to obtain or retain a closer, I'm not sure they would consider Pomeranz among that group.  So, if we have to trade one or the other, Hader would bring the most back in both players/prospects and financial relief.  From the left side, we would still have Pomeranz, Morejon, Castillo, Hill and maybe Cosgrove to support the bullpen.

What I'm looking at down the stretch is whether I want to retain Bell or Drury vice Myers.  I love Myers' attitude and all-out hustle but I am afraid those knees will not allow him to be even be an every day DH much less contribute in the field in the OF or even at 1b.  If Drury continues to hit, I'd prefer signing him and for a lot less than either Bell or Myers.   In a perfect world, i.e., Dodger kind of revenue, Bell would be a slam dunk sign.

Quote from MrPadre19 on August 5, 2022, 12:48 pm

Quote from fenn68 on August 4, 2022, 6:11 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on August 4, 2022, 5:26 pm

I think AJ learned the value of having a dominant Closer.

Doubt he trades Hader……possible of course,but.

Pretty sure he already knew … the strategic question do you want to pay $15MM (est in arb) for Hader AND $8MM AAV for Pomeranz … while Castillo is waiting in the wings.

Both are FA after 2023. That est $8MM difference could be used to sweeten the pot for SP … or signing Bell, Profar. The alternative is trading Pomeranz … still clears about $8MM AAV and that helps … but probably not enough to address SP / LF / and still sign Bell … even with trading Kim.

I picked on Hader because he consumes a BIG AAV and has some “adequate” replacements in Pomeranz and Castillo. Plus signing a Bell level 1B/DH was big part of a strong offense … to cover some weak #4 - 5 SP.

Keep Hader … trade Pomeranz … maybe get Profar - Clevinger - and Myers (at $8MM) and still need a couple of “minor” deletes.

So from a team perspective is Hader / Myers > Bell / Pomeranz?

Good reason to get Pomeranz back and pitching.We need to see him stay healthy and be effective for us.....and for other GM's.

He won't hold much trade value if he doesn't pitch well after missing a full season worth of games.His performance the rest of this year is critical for this year...and for the decision to be made for next year.