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Chris Paddack

Everyone wants a clear Ace / #1 but in reality there are very few in MLB. Hopefully we don't do Paddack (and the Padres) a disservice by expecting / wanting Paddack (or any of the coming arms) to be that Ace and then overly criticize their inability to be that guy ... not an easy role to fill.

Paddack just needs to be the best he can be and if that is upper half of the rotation quality ... good ... and if it is a very strong bottom of the rotation arm ... also good.  Padres need plus pitchers at all 5 starting spots.

Need to avoid the #1 or failure view on any of the coming prospects.

Based on nothing more than various scouting projections ... would not be surprised if Gore and Patino are lined up for #1/#2 in some order if they develop as projected making Paddack (even as he is) a top #3. Plus I know he is a forgotten man but Morejon has the stuff to push Paddack down to #4 ... and that would make him an elite #4.

A lot of projection there but potential for a dominate #1-5 rotation ... with Paddack an important part.

 

Quote from fenn68 on October 7, 2019, 9:25 am

Everyone wants a clear Ace / #1 but in reality there are very few in MLB. Hopefully we don't do Paddack (and the Padres) a disservice by expecting / wanting Paddack (or any of the coming arms) to be that Ace and then overly criticize their inability to be that guy ... not an easy role to fill.

Paddack just needs to be the best he can be and if that is upper half of the rotation quality ... good ... and if it is a very strong bottom of the rotation arm ... also good.  Padres need plus pitchers at all 5 starting spots.

Need to avoid the #1 or failure view on any of the coming prospects.

Based on nothing more than various scouting projections ... would not be surprised if Gore and Patino are lined up for #1/#2 in some order if they develop as projected making Paddack (even as he is) a top #3. Plus I know he is a forgotten man but Morejon has the stuff to push Paddack down to #4 ... and that would make him an elite #4.

A lot of projection there but potential for a dominate #1-5 rotation ... with Paddack an important part.

 

YESSS!  I love Paddack; and the upside potential is obvious b/c of his elite command.  BUT I'm really worried everyone (including him) is projecting more out of him than he is.  If there's one thing the Pads parade of new SP's proved last year, it's that new P's MLB hitters haven't faced before have a big advantage... look at the list of successful early going results in the last 2 years:  besides Paddack; Strahm, Quantrill, Margevicius, Logan Allen's 1st start was fantastic, Jake Nix almost threw a complete game shutout last year, Luis Perdomo did 2-3 years ago....  just looked up Lucchesi's April 2018:  5 starts, 3-1, 2.28 ERA, .196 BAA, 1.05 WHIP.  THEN MLB hitters start to get video of the P & know his stuff, and there tends to be regression.

An extension of this thought is that even if a prospect "projects" to an Ace, as Gore clearly does, you can NOT expect him to walk in and be "that guy" his 1st day & season in MLB!  Having someone that RIGHT NOW you clearly feel confident starting ahead of a rookie debut Gore puts ALL the other SP's in much better positions to succeed.

Soroka is the better pitcher "right now" but I believe its because he's just that...the better "pitcher".

But Paddack has the better "stuff".

There is little doubt in my mind if Paddack continues to work on his CB and/or add another pitch all while becoming a better "pitcher" that he can/will surpass Soroka.
We have to take into account that Paddack had to take a long period of time off and couldn't even throw a ball...let alone work on being a better pitcher.

Then there's the point that not all pitchers advance at the same rate or the same trajectory.

There are guys like Kluber and many others who just needed a few years to become who they ultimately would become.

There's no guarantee Soroka will not come back to earth some or that Paddack won't continue to get better....2019 is not who either of these kids will be.

 

 

I mean Paddacks stats and analytics arent too far off Stras (2019 vs 2019) and Stras is a CY candidate... I think Paddack like Stras is not a clear ACE -- but both are gritty gamers and what i would deem solid #2's... I mean really how many true ACES are there-- DeGroom, Kershaw, Sherzer, Verlander, Cole did I miss anyone?

I think that a lot of what makes an ACE an ACE is that bulldog mentality, the ability to lead others and be an example for them. I think Paddack definitely has that. He had a tough stretch, he worked to correct his mistakes and he got better. He can undoubtedly be an ACE for us. When teams know they are going to play the Padres he is the guy that they don't want to face. When he is on he has shown he can shut anyone down. Yes he still has work to do and changes to make. If he does, he is exactly the kind of pitcher you want as an ACE.

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-rumors-astros-sign-yuli-gurriel-to-new-2020-contract-padres-make-paddack-gore-untouchable/

Padres make Paddack, Gore untouchable

The Padres have made right-hander Chris Paddack and lefty pitching prospect MacKenzie Gore "virtually untouchable" in trade talks, reports Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. Righty pitching prospect Luis Patino is more available than Paddack and Gore. CBS Sports' R.J. Anderson ranked Gore and Patino the 4th and 46th best prospects in baseball, respectively.

San Diego is seeking a top-of-the-rotation starter this offseason -- they're said to have interest in Stephen Strasburg -- and, if they turn to the trade market, Paddack and Gore figure to be among the first players requested. Those two are part of the long-term solution, however. The Padres want to bring in an ace-caliber starter to pair with Paddack this year and also Gore in the future.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/padres/story/2020-02-16/padres-chris-paddack-batting-practice-rotation-opening-day%3f_amp=true

Tighter and harder curve.  Well that is encouraging.

Quote from onlypads on February 17, 2020, 7:15 am

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/padres/story/2020-02-16/padres-chris-paddack-batting-practice-rotation-opening-day%3f_amp=true

Tighter and harder curve.  Well that is encouraging.

It also went from a pure 12-6 curve to having a lot more horizontal movement. It's going to look a lot more like a fastball since he doesn't have to start it so high to land it for a strike.

That is awesome! Have you seen it or where did you get that information? Any indications as to whether it is believed that it could be a plus offering in the future?

Quote from onlypads on February 17, 2020, 1:14 pm

That is awesome! Have you seen it or where did you get that information? Any indications as to whether it is believed that it could be a plus offering in the future?

https://www.mlb.com/padres/news/padres-chris-paddack-working-on-curveball

There's a video in the link above showing Paddack's curve in his 1st, 13th, and 26th start. There is a dramatic difference between the first two curves and the one near the end of the season. Plus I believe he says in that same article that he's changed or adjusted his grip.