Quote from fenn68 on September 6, 2020, 10:32 am

I guess we are entering the Chris Paddack watch era trying to see if he can return to his 2019 form. Too soon to bail on him given his 2019 and minor league career.

Clearly command has deserted him but some of the reports have him losing the "late life" on his FB.

Given all the video on his 2019 form ... the coaching staff should be able to detect any variation in his delivery. That likely addresses command more than the loss of "late life" but don't know.

If he recaptures his command, that will go a long way to return him to near his 2019 form and he could survive with only two prime pitches as a starter. No command ... big issue.

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Video will tell a lot but I guess there is an outside chance that in the minors, even though did not walk many, he may NOT have had good command but just baffled minor league batters with the FB/Change combo and in his ML debut a similar approach BUT ML batters adapted forcing Paddack pitch more over the plate and the hitters are sitting on FB? That would be a problem.

In 2019 his pre-All Star (15 starts) at 2.84 ERA ... his post-All Star (11 starts) at 4.01 ERA. Most suggest that he wore down BUT were opponents figuring him out?

Quote from Brian Connelly on September 6, 2020, 11:37 am

With only 2 pitches, below elite FB command with less late life is a big big issue.  Could argue Lamet "only" has 2 pitches, but they're both overwhelmingly good on a scouting scale even though his command isn't, maybe 65 FB, 70-75 Slider.  I'm sure there are some, but can't off top of my head think of a SP who induces worse swings at utterly unhittable pitches than Lamet does.

I feel like Paddack & his C should force himself to work more curveball in.  It's getting better, and if you up the usage a little, decreases the FB predictability.  Another big difference last year was his strict 90 pitch counts in games.  Maybe Paddack should pour it all into going 5 innings on a "pitch count limit" vs trying to go 7?

 

Quote from Randy Manese on September 6, 2020, 11:48 am

A's hit him hard but his 12-6 curve was the best it has looked all year.  Also, what happened to the "cutter - semi-slider" he had in his last start - that worked very well for him.  If Paddack can't put it all together as a starting pitcher, then it could be that his two pitches are enough to make him a successful closer, ala Hoffman.  I can see him storming in from the bullpen with the music blaring!

Quote from hoffy51 on September 6, 2020, 11:56 am

Quote from Randy Manese on September 6, 2020, 11:48 am

A's hit him hard but his 12-6 curve was the best it has looked all year.  Also, what happened to the "cutter - semi-slider" he had in his last start - that worked very well for him.  If Paddack can't put it all together as a starting pitcher, then it could be that his two pitches are enough to make him a successful closer, ala Hoffman.  I can see him storming in from the bullpen with the music blaring!

That was my thought as well. Good call.

Quote from JasonE135 on September 6, 2020, 2:30 pm

Quote from fenn68 on September 6, 2020, 10:32 am

I guess we are entering the Chris Paddack watch era trying to see if he can return to his 2019 form. Too soon to bail on him given his 2019 and minor league career.

Clearly command has deserted him but some of the reports have him losing the "late life" on his FB.

Given all the video on his 2019 form ... the coaching staff should be able to detect any variation in his delivery. That likely addresses command more than the loss of "late life" but don't know.

If he recaptures his command, that will go a long way to return him to near his 2019 form and he could survive with only two prime pitches as a starter. No command ... big issue.

=======

Video will tell a lot but I guess there is an outside chance that in the minors, even though did not walk many, he may NOT have had good command but just baffled minor league batters with the FB/Change combo and in his ML debut a similar approach BUT ML batters adapted forcing Paddack pitch more over the plate and the hitters are sitting on FB? That would be a problem.

In 2019 his pre-All Star (15 starts) at 2.84 ERA ... his post-All Star (11 starts) at 4.01 ERA. Most suggest that he wore down BUT were opponents figuring him out?

His command was graded as a 70 in the 2019 Baseball America Prospect Handbook. That was before he ever got to the majors. That was what made him special. If he doesn't have it right now he is not special.

He is off right now. The same thing happened last year. The Padres sent him down to the minors to work on himself without the pressure of needing to win at the ml level. Perhaps he needs to do so again?

Quote from fenn68 on September 8, 2020, 1:14 pm

Maybe more than Paddack’s “stuff” is in play for his struggles.

On his zoom press conference recently ... he referred to people being against him (assume he meant fans) and, maybe most telling (as I interpreted), was his firm commitment to how he pitches now .... implying he does not need to change since his stuff will work.

Tack that on to an earlier interview when he “implied” that he did not need all those scouting reports ... his stuff and how he pitches will be fine.

Now today, on the DSmith show they had a discussion about the commentary from his brother (on twitter I guess) is continually criticizing the team (not scoring enough in Paddack’s starts) and Tingler for taking him out of games too soon. A suggestion that is influencing Paddack .... although both brothers may have the same mindset from the get to.

Could we have in Paddack in pitcher that is so self confident in his pitching skills that no input for improvement will be accepted and the player (family) blames others for poor performance?

This year (and the 2nd half of last year) suggests he may not be the hype player we expected,

Quote from Brian Connelly on September 8, 2020, 2:09 pm

This is going to sound like armchair QB'ing, but I've ALWAYS thought Paddack was over-rated both on this board, but maybe more by the media /general public.  He got all the limelight attention this offseason/ST after phenomenal debut last year.  His personality is "larger than life", with Sheriff/ Mr. Intensity "image"... the cowboy hat, the hair, the scowl...  That stuff works when you're rolling, but it can wear thin really fast when you come back down to earth.  So it's VERY interesting to consider if his obviously "prickly" personality could be hindering his own improvement.  2 guys pop into my head re that:  Derek Norris & Austin Hedges.  Norris was pretty notoriously NOT open to suggestions, and Hedges was defensive (like CP is being) multiple times about his approach & value.    I've always thought THE hardest thing in MLB has to be recognizing when you actually need to make an adjustment vs just having some bad luck & sticking with your approach.   But maybe bulldog guys' stubbornness can hold them back when they actually need to get & apply some constructive feedback?

I posted, (but Mr. P was the REAL advocate) that Lamet was ascending and might be the #1 on this team > CP & Richards (at time).  If I remember right, Mr P correctly called him "potential Cy Young candidate".  Lamet's very intense when pitching, but a "quieter" personality.  Paddack made no bones about wanting to be O.D. SP.  Didn't hear a word from Lamet.  CP gets it.  Not saying undeserved based on last season, but... something about it just kind of turned me off; that it seemed like it was a foregone conclusion.  Maybe at the time he earned it, but right now it looks more like a rookie Manager gave in to some lobbying from a strong vocal personality.

Some of the more in depth talent evaluators raised serious questions about if he could make it & sustain as basically a 2 pitch RHSP in MLB... VERY few successes there.  In summary, I feel like Paddack's (considerable; don't get me wrong) talent always profiled more as a #3 - #4 SP, not a #1-2.  I really hope I'm wrong & Paddack gets back on track & finds a way to continue exceeding expectations, but think he does have to make some adjustments, so fascinating to see if he's willing to.  I'm betting he does.  Might need the time/distance of the offseason to reflect; hard to do it in a 60-game intense season.

Quote from MrPadre19 on September 8, 2020, 2:49 pm

Paddack is still very young and even more.......inexperienced.

There is no doubt he has plenty of “major league” stuff and if anything his early success may have just gone to his head.

Its quite possible his recent struggles could end up being a good thing for his career.

He is plenty good enough to pitch for many years near the top of a rotation....He also has the desire and intensity to do whatever is necessary to get back to the “Ace” he was becoming.

As Padre fans we are just very fortunate right now to have Lamet/Davies/Clevinger to give us the starts we need while Paddack works on getting it back.

If you think about it this way....He only has to be our #4 or even #5 starter for him to still hold value for this team until he regains his success.

I don’t have much issue with him going up against our opponents 4th or 5th guys until  then.........do you?

 

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on September 8, 2020, 5:57 pm

Nope.  I agree with almost everything you said, but I just question the characterization as an "Ace" (quotation marks noted).  If in Summer Camp Lamet / Paddack were both pitching ANYWHERE close to what they are now, even I with my 5 yrs baseball coaching experience (single digit age kids in T-ball, Little League) could have evaluated that Lamet should have been the O.D. starter, regardless of Paddack's "desire & intensity".   Lamet's a stud with just as much "desire & intensity".  He just doesn't wear it on his sleeve as much.  Obviously those traits make Paddack (& Lamet) great, but I think CP being so vocal about it influenced Tingler.  It's a moot point, but on day 1 of only a 60 game season, it could've made a difference.

But he is 110% dedicated to his craft.  Great writeup somewhere about how he TOOK GOOD ADVICE & re-worked his curveball in the offseason working closely with a specialist he reached out to, into the much better offering we see in 2020 vs 2019.  This season is so compressed, everything is magnified with less time to adjust. We were all ready to run Richards out of town 2 starts ago, now he's a conquering hero.  Paddack's an intense, confident, emotional guy.  Think he'll really benefit from the offseason, make adjustments, and keep improving.

I predict Paddack will crush it as a #3 - #5 SP.  The continued emergence of Lamet & especially the trade for Clevinger finally solved what I thought was one of THE biggest issues for Pads; that they were not putting SP's coming up into a position to succeed.  Even if Gore is the best SP prospect in all of MLB, it's not fair to "expect" him to walk in the door & be a #1 SP in MLB his first start.  Now he, Patino, etc don't have to... they can grow into their potential without ridiculous pressure.

Padres future is incredibly bright!