Forum
Forum Navigation
Bolanos & Lawson Fit?
#41 · December 1, 2019, 8:45 pm
Strahm is a relief pitcher and needs to realize it. His velocity goes up a few ticks and he throws his slider more as reliever. I think Strahm pitched decently last year. His numbers were inflated from his last 5 starts and a few UGLY relief outings. For the most part he was good when he went back to the BP. I expect him to be dominant reliever in 2020. In 2018 there were times when he reminded me of Hader.
#42 · December 1, 2019, 9:27 pm
Agree Strahm is a RP. He benefits from the uptick in FB. I agree he pitched decently in 2019. I am with you there.
Dominance in 2020 though? What peripherals lead you to think he will be dominant in 2020? Where I really can't follow you is the Hader comp (even in 2018; but I am thinking in terms of arsenal not results). I think he is solid / slightly above average and can benefit some teams with less RP depth making him a decent trade chip. If we didn't have our depth I would advocate keeping him. Between Cal/Luc, Morejon, Baez, and Bolanos (maybe even Gore and Patino second half) I am not sure he is needed. In a decent amount of instances, Pom / Munoz / Castillo (Yates in a save opp) are all that will be needed where a SP goes deep.
Edit: LOL I don't even know what his money situation is, so I really can't say he is a decent trade chip. Just appeared that way to me on the surface.
#43 · December 2, 2019, 6:25 am
Career stats AS A RP only:
Strahm: 126 innings ... 1.14 WHIP
Pomeranz: 115 innings ... 1.09 WHIP
Castillo: 39 innings ... 0.92 WHIP
That is probably the best (one of the best) set of 3 LHRP on one team heading into 2020. Plus they are not LH specialist and at least Pomeranz and Strahm can go more than one inning if needed. Padres are in great shape with them to maximize match-ups at critical points in games and still have a LHRP option for later.
From the right side Yates the some major upside with Munoz, Guerra, and Baez creates a core 7 that from top to bottom has the potential to be elite. The eighth arm has a lot of options with Perdomo, Bednar, Reyes, Wingenter, and maybe Quantrill as the long man if not bumping a starter.
Given the way SP are being used ... if they can be effective through 5-6 innings the Padres are in a good position to lock the game down with the pen.
#44 · December 2, 2019, 6:36 am
With Quantrill,Baez,Morejon and Strahm all able to go 2+ innings I like the Pen this year.
Of course they may not all be in the Pen or even Padres on Opening day but.....
#45 · December 2, 2019, 8:24 am
Quote from onlypads on December 1, 2019, 9:27 pmAgree Strahm is a RP. He benefits from the uptick in FB. I agree he pitched decently in 2019. I am with you there.
Dominance in 2020 though? What peripherals lead you to think he will be dominant in 2020? Where I really can't follow you is the Hader comp (even in 2018; but I am thinking in terms of arsenal not results). I think he is solid / slightly above average and can benefit some teams with less RP depth making him a decent trade chip. If we didn't have our depth I would advocate keeping him. Between Cal/Luc, Morejon, Baez, and Bolanos (maybe even Gore and Patino second half) I am not sure he is needed. In a decent amount of instances, Pom / Munoz / Castillo (Yates in a save opp) are all that will be needed where a SP goes deep.
Edit: LOL I don't even know what his money situation is, so I really can't say he is a decent trade chip. Just appeared that way to me on the surface.
Did you watch Strahm pitch in 2018? He was dominant. 2.05 ERA in 2018 in just over 60 innings. That was actually better than Hader who had a 2.43 ERA. Of course the underlying numbers there’s a gap because Hader has a preposterous K rate. I didn’t say he was Hader. I said there WERE TIMES he reminded me of Hader. Both guys use a fastball/slider combo and both are deadly against RHH. I think Strahm being in the BP from the get go and knowing his role he will be closer to his 2018 numbers in 2020.
#46 · December 2, 2019, 1:42 pm
So if I understand you, your reasoning is that you think if he starts in BP he will become Strahm of 2018? Continually pointing at 2018 doesn't do anything for me, then I'll point right back to 2019. I posit that his 2019 numbers are the best evidence of future performance. Again lol he was decent but very prone to HRs in 2019.
I asked whether there was a metric that could make it such that his 2019 was deceptive, and in actuality he would likely track 2018. It was just a question.
#47 · December 2, 2019, 2:49 pm
Quote from onlypads on December 2, 2019, 1:42 pmSo if I understand you, your reasoning is that you think if he starts in BP he will become Strahm of 2018? Continually pointing at 2018 doesn't do anything for me, then I'll point right back to 2019. I posit that his 2019 numbers are the best evidence of future performance. Again lol he was decent but very prone to HRs in 2019.
I asked whether there was a metric that could make it such that his 2019 was deceptive, and in actuality he would likely track 2018. It was just a question.
I notice you mentioned Strahms propensity to give up HRs as a concern for you. Well his HR per 9 is actually slightly better than Haders the last two seasons. If you are struggling to understand my post, that’s on you. My position on Strahm and posts are pretty clear. This is a fan site where people give their opinions. My opinion on Strahm is that a return to the BP will make his numbers look more like the 2018 Strahm than 2019 Strahm. There are other examples of lefties who didn’t succeed as starters, but became ACE relievers. Brad Hand or Drew Pomeranz ring a bell?
If you base all your projections solely on the numbers of the previous season, I’d say that’s a flawed system you have to judge players. LOL I guess AJP shouldn’t have acquired Kirby Yates because he was awful the year before AJP acquired him. I take it you don’t like the Profar acquisition because he was bad last year? GMs sometimes disregard the previous seasons numbers in their projections for a multitude of reasons, injuries, ballpark, role etc.
#48 · December 2, 2019, 3:04 pm
Well I just spent A LOT of time developing a post that didn't go through because of a server error...very frustrating to say the least...but do this...look at baseball reference or just take my word for it regarding Strahm: 1, He gave up 2 of his 22 homeruns in 30 appearances (30.5 innings) from his second bullpen appearance and on to finish the year...also, his ERA ballooned in 7 appearances (6 starts and 1 relief appearance) from a 3.06 ERA to 5.47...something wasn't right. He had 41 ks in the above mentioned 30 appearances and a 3.24 ERA in that time with one terrible outing mixed in that saw him give up 5 ER in 1.2 innings against the Orioles. Also, to note he gave up 16 of his 22 home runs in his last 7 starts and first relief appearance. So...I absolutely have little doubt that Strahm will be huge for the Padres bullpen going forward
MrPadre19 has reacted to this post.
MrPadre19
#49 · December 2, 2019, 3:06 pm
That is why I asked if there was something that supported your opinion that a return to 2018 is more likely and that 2019 was the anomaly. Yes acquisitions can have value if you see potential on down year and can identify some reason why the downward trend is unlikely to continue. I really don't know how to be more clear, it was an initially a question and a response that psychology was insufficient to convince me. As a fan, I can have an opinion too. I really didn't mean to hurt your feelings.
#50 · December 2, 2019, 3:07 pm
Quote from dusty on December 2, 2019, 3:04 pmWell I just spent A LOT of time developing a post that didn't go through because of a server error...very frustrating to say the least...but do this...look at baseball reference or just take my word for it regarding Strahm: 1, He gave up 2 of his 22 homeruns in 30 appearances (30.5 innings) from his second bullpen appearance and on to finish the year...also, his ERA ballooned in 7 appearances (6 starts and 1 relief appearance) from a 3.06 ERA to 5.47...something wasn't right. He had 41 ks in the above mentioned 30 appearances and a 3.24 ERA in that time with one terrible outing mixed in that saw him give up 5 ER in 1.2 innings against the Orioles. Also, to note he gave up 16 of his 22 home runs in his last 7 starts and first relief appearance. So...I absolutely have little doubt that Strahm will be huge for the Padres bullpen going forward
Hate when that happens. Seems interesting.