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Around the League...non Padres
#51 · October 9, 2018, 5:22 pm
There's a thread for this already. I share your interest and am concerned AJP/Pads may get caught up in this as collateral damage. No basis other than AJ's track record and the sheer volume of the '16 J2 signings by the team including multiple Cuban players of note (e.g., Morejon).
#52 · December 5, 2018, 3:05 pm
Goldschmidt traded to Cardinals.
#53 · December 5, 2018, 4:59 pm
Quote from David Nevin on December 5, 2018, 3:05 pmGoldschmidt traded to Cardinals.
Taken in the same round (8th) of the 2009 draft as Nate Freiman ...
#54 · December 5, 2018, 5:13 pm
Quote from LynchMob on December 5, 2018, 4:59 pmQuote from David Nevin on December 5, 2018, 3:05 pmGoldschmidt traded to Cardinals.
Taken in the same round (8th) of the 2009 draft as Nate Freiman ...
So I guess that just shows how uncertain the draft is....Freiman is gone and Goldy is and has been a stud
The Cardinals just got better
#55 · December 5, 2018, 5:34 pm
Quote from 3fingersplit on December 5, 2018, 5:13 pmQuote from LynchMob on December 5, 2018, 4:59 pmQuote from David Nevin on December 5, 2018, 3:05 pmGoldschmidt traded to Cardinals.
Taken in the same round (8th) of the 2009 draft as Nate Freiman ...
So I guess that just shows how uncertain the draft is....Freiman is gone and Goldy is and has been a stud
The Cardinals just got better
re: that just shows how uncertain the draft is ... yes, that was my point exactly
re: The Cardinals just got better ... I assume the D-backs think they got better also ... they only gave up 1 year of Goldschmidt ...
#56 · December 5, 2018, 5:56 pm
Given the 1 year of Goldschmidt and apparently no desire / chance to resign him ... plus not a big market for 1B ... the best they could do I guess ... at least they received some good pieces.
AZ is clearly moving to that popular "total rebuild" with Goldschmidt - Corbin - Pollack now gone and working hard on finding a taker for Greinke and his huge contract.
Could be a version of the Seattle logic were they don't see winning near term and don't just want to spend money to be an also ran. Add that they are in heavy dispute with folks in AZ and their desire for a new ballpark and cleaning out the stars, saving money, and alienating the fans could be a precursor to a move out of AZ (think they can void their lease in 2022). Why is that an opportune year ... Portland has just approved a partially city funded new baseball park that could be ready in ... wait for it ... 2022.
Of course, expect a major "fight" with Seattle who claims territorial right but apparently Seattle is also having some stadium issues ... could be interesting in a few years.
#57 · December 6, 2018, 10:30 am
Quote from fenn68 on December 5, 2018, 5:56 pmGiven the 1 year of Goldschmidt and apparently no desire / chance to resign him ... plus not a big market for 1B ... the best they could do I guess ... at least they received some good pieces.
AZ is clearly moving to that popular "total rebuild" with Goldschmidt - Corbin - Pollack now gone and working hard on finding a taker for Greinke and his huge contract.
Could be a version of the Seattle logic were they don't see winning near term and don't just want to spend money to be an also ran. Add that they are in heavy dispute with folks in AZ and their desire for a new ballpark and cleaning out the stars, saving money, and alienating the fans could be a precursor to a move out of AZ (think they can void their lease in 2022). Why is that an opportune year ... Portland has just approved a partially city funded new baseball park that could be ready in ... wait for it ... 2022.
Of course, expect a major "fight" with Seattle who claims territorial right but apparently Seattle is also having some stadium issues ... could be interesting in a few years.
"1 down, 3 to go" (NL West). Dbacks made the right decision here, like Seattle in AL. Had Baseball America bottom 5 Farm system entering 2018 BEFORE trading their #2 prospect LHP Anthony Banda (to Rays for OF Souza)--for comparison sake his prospect grade = BA grade for Joey Lucchesi who they had #9 for Pads. Also traded a bunch of their #15-30 prospects for failed playoff push last year. Now #29 & 30 (Royals, Mariners) systems have improved a lot.
But rock bottom system will turn around quickly; with likely 2 Comp picks after 1st round for Corbin & Pollack (if > 50MM contract). I always thought the Greinke contract AAV was bonkers; hopefully (likely) they get stuck eating a ton of it. Even if they don't, they're paying 10 MM in deferred salary 2022-2026... Unbelievable! Speculatively, I would think Greinke would allow trades to the contending teams on list since Dbacks no longer are.
Roughly comparable to completely traded out Farm Pads of mid-2016 when they switched course & started trading out the vets. D-backs about 2 1/2 years behind Padres on curve now, with no massive International spend to skyrocket Farm
Would LOVE it if Portland gets MLB team! Stadium location has spectacular potential. Hard to imagine Phoenix/AZ with no MLB team?
#58 · December 6, 2018, 1:03 pm
With all that is going on with the D-Backs ... could see them as a non-factor until 2022 or later. Then also. look at SF with a old, underperforming roster tied to some very expensive long term deals and a very poor / shallow farm system ... could see them with their new GM fade out of contention for years. Some think Colorado was a mirage last season but not built for contending in the long run.
3 teams on a trajectory that is good for the Padres and their positive trajectory. LAD ... that is a different story.
#59 · December 6, 2018, 1:27 pm
It is setting up that it could be a two team race for a few years just about the time we are ready to compete.
SF looking to trade their best player(Bumgarner) and just about everyone else on the wrong side of 30.
Az. just starting a rebuild.
Co. is about to either lose their best player or have to pony up a huge contract to keep him and even with Gray and Freeland they still only have an average pitching staff.
Arenado,Story,Blackmon and Dahl can sure hit though.
I see them as the Dodgers only real competition the next couple years and then we should take the Rockies place in the pecking order.
You just can never know if we can compete with a $250 mil payroll no matter how good our prospects are.
#60 · December 10, 2018, 3:16 pm
Given the 1 year of Goldschmidt and apparently no desire / chance to resign him ... plus not a big market for 1B ... the best they could do I guess ... at least they received some good pieces.
Yes. I looked back in the old BA prospect handbooks & here's how those guys graded:
In 2018 C Carson Kelly was St. Louis' (#13 system) #3 prospect with a "50-Low Risk" grade. No Pads prospect had that exact grade, but in 2017 our #9 prospect (and system) Dinelson Lamet did. Kelly has a terrible BA <.200 but in just 150 or so PA in MLB; Top tier defensive C 70-Field, 60-Arm, 50-Hit/Power.
In 2017 SP Luke Weaver was St. Louis' (#12 system) #2 prospect with a "60-High Risk" grade. No 2017 Pads prospect had that grade, but entering 2018 our #4 Quantrill & #5 Morejon did. His 2018 stats look a lot like Eric Lauer's, and were a step back from a much better 1/3-1/2 season in MLB in 2017.
AND they save 14MM.... The Cards will recoup a comp pick/s assuming they don't re-sign Goldschmidt, but that guy will be 4-5 years away from contributing.
I guess the bigger point I'm making is that in addition to tending to over-value our own guys, there's an overall tendency in baseball to just instantly stop thinking of a guy as a prospect the day he makes his 100th AB or 50th IP or whatever, and maybe under-rate them a little once they're no longer technically prospects?
Hard to compare to Pads since we are between Cards win now & Dbacks rebuild, but wouldn't we all be screaming in a bad way if Preller traded say Morejon & Austin Allen for 1 year of Goldschmidt?