Quote from Henry Silvestre on February 1, 2023, 7:55 am

Going to be fun and probably a bit of heartbreak watching AJP and Siedler navigate the MLB waters for the next few seasons.. we are in the eye of the storm atm..a few breakout guys from Campusano/Honeywell/Groome/etc.. could go a long way in answering questions beyond 2023

One thing is sure Having a base of 3 All Stars locked up for 5+ yrs in Xander/Tatis/Joe gives the team an enviable position.. something we don't talk about much to be honest..(Phillie has 2/LAD has 2)

Quote from fenn68 on February 1, 2023, 10:35 am

Next winter, sign Machado ... trade Soto ... pass on Ohtani.

Spend on signing SP to back-up Musgrove (that will be expensive for upper rotation pitchers).

Machado - Tatis - Bogaerts - Cronenworth - Kim is already a base for a plus offense that can be supported by some  mid-range (lower cost) position players a lot easier than back-filling four SP behind Musgrove two of which need to be upper rotation arms and at least one a middle of the rotation type.

Of course, how 2023 plays will be an influence ...

Quote from BoosterSD on February 1, 2023, 11:01 am

Quote from fenn68 on February 1, 2023, 10:35 am

Next winter, sign Machado ... trade Soto ... pass on Ohtani.

Of course, how 2023 plays will be an influence ...

I agree with a lot of your thoughts here, and resigning Machado could be a good idea based on cost. Although let me play Devil's Advocate for a moment.

Soto's career line of .287 BA, .424 OBP, .526 SLG and OPS+ of 157. Age 24 this season. Averages 25 HRs per season.

Machado career line of .282 BA, .341 OBP, .493 SLG and OPS+ of 126. Age 30 this season. Averages 26 HRs per season.

Bogaerts career line of .292 BA, .356 OBP, .458 SLG and OPS+ of 117. Age 30 this season. Averages 16 HRs per season.

Soto bounces back to his typical season, and Machado has his typical season, Soto has a slightly better OBP and SLG, and is 6 years younger than Machado. So if you are going to invest $36-40M per season, would it not be prudent to invest that in the younger player, Soto?

Bogaerts is the same age as Machado, cost controlled at $25.45M per season versus potentially $35M+ for Machado, and minus the HR power, a similar bat. Would give the defensive edge to Machado; however, probably not a huge drop from Machado to Bogaerts to the point 3B defense would become a liability.

Based on what COFers are available via FA, it might be harder to replace the production in the OF of Soto than that of Machado. Bogaerts was the team leader in BOS, so Bogaerts or Soto could take the clubhouse lead that Machado currently holds.

So it might be prudent to let Machado walk, slide Bogaerts to 3B, return Kim to SS and extend Kim's contract, return Crone to 2B and extend Crone's contract, and the savings from Machado could then be used towards a 1B and/or SP. And of course the progression and time frame of Merrill could also ease the INF situation as well.

Quote from fenn68 on February 1, 2023, 12:24 pm

That is why 2023 will be important to address a number of the "IF" conditions.

As you can probably tell, I am not sold on Soto being a $50MM player ... certainly not on his SD performance or his 2022 in WASH. Nice 2022 stats but down from his history and not $50MM worth of stats. Not a major factor but a bad fielder (despite the laughable Gold Glove nomination). With Scott Boras as his agent ... might not be a quick signing and that could get in the way of other major signings. Don't be surprised if Boras starts out at $50MM AAV on a 15 year (lifetime) deal. That is a lot of coin on a player who could be the next Justin Upton.

A bit of quandary with the Machado decision happening after this season but Soto after 2024 (Boras will certainly take him to FA) and no guarantee he will sign with the Padres.

I do agree that paying Machado in the mid-30s into his 40s is not ideal either (another Cabrera/DET or Pujols/LAA at the end) and on paper replacing Machado with Bogaerts and shifting Kim / Cronenworth while redeploying Machado's money to other needs (SP) is logical ... opens the IF on who they can sign as a FA. That might make them keep Soto in his final control year at about $30MM. Then in 2025 not have either Machado or Soto.

I wonder how the Padres finish is 2023 impacts Preller moves ... if they win the World Series vs if they get bumped from the playoffs early vs (perish the thought) don't make the playoffs (probably due to a couple of major SP injuries and Tatis being injured again).

Success should bring euphoria (and continued aggressive spending) but failure (and why they failed) may bring a period of reevaluation and a revised roster strategy.

Quote from BoosterSD on February 1, 2023, 12:48 pm

Quote from fenn68 on February 1, 2023, 12:24 pm

That is why 2023 will be important to address a number of the "IF" conditions.

Success should bring euphoria (and continued aggressive spending) but failure (and why they failed) may bring a period of reevaluation and a revised roster strategy.

I agree with a lot you say here again, a lot of IFs. Although I dont think that Soto will make it to $50M per season, a lot of that will depend on what Ohtani gets in FA after this season. I cant see Soto getting more per season AAV than Ohtani, even with Soto being 4 years younger. Ohtani with being able to pitch and hit at the upper levels of MLB in both, will get a higher AAV than Soto, Soto will get the longer contract. I could see Ohtani get to that $50M AAV, but Soto getting around $40-42.5M AAV, and yes I think it will be close to the 15 year long term. I can see Ohtani getting $50m for 11 years for a $550M contract, and Soto getting $40m for 15 years for a $600M contract.

And I will offer a different mindset based on the Padres success level of 2023. When SD wins it all 😉 this season, I could see SD going through a small downsize and dropping below the first level of the CBT for 2024, and basking in their glory. Then, reloading in 2025. And then if they fall short and by how much in 2023, making an aggressive push to cross the finish line for 2024.

However, like you have said, a lot of IFs following this season.

Quote from WindsorUK on February 1, 2023, 3:07 pm

My prediction for this year is that if BoMel keeps Soto in the 2 hole, expect the same dismal numbers he showed last year after coming over from DC.

If we want to get true value from this kid, he bats 4th( after Tatis, Machado and whoever else you want to slot in at the top of the order)

A sub .240 batting average with little power most certainly will NOT earn him anything close to what he turned down in Washington.

Soto becomes a trade chip after the 2023 season.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on February 1, 2023, 6:49 pm

The one thing to consider is Machado seems to love San Diego and Siedler and AJ both love him too.. Does Soto Love San Diego? I know AJ and Siedler do.. But Bird in hand >2 in bush... meaning Manny can opt out and if he leaves and we don't resign him we are putting all of our faith on Soto resigning and if he tests amd leaves.. then we lost Machado and Soto in back to back seasons.. I say if we can extend Machado we do so..

I have a feeling that Soto could deteriorate in his early 30's (like Stanton ) 24 yr Olds usually don't have back issues and that has been in my mind since it happened.. Manny is an offseason workout beast who is driven by Historical milestones 3000 500 etc..and if he stays is all but guaranteed "immortality" (aka Bronze statue)..

Quote from BoosterSD on February 1, 2023, 7:49 pm

Quote from WindsorUK on February 1, 2023, 3:07 pm

My prediction for this year is that if BoMel keeps Soto in the 2 hole, expect the same dismal numbers he showed last year after coming over from DC.

If we want to get true value from this kid, he bats 4th

Yes. Soto needs to bat 4th this season. It's historically his best numbers.

Machado 3rd, Soto 4th, Bogaerts 5th.

After the return of Tatis.

Tatis, Grisham, Machado, Soto, Bogaerts, Crone, Cruz/ Carpenter, Kim, Nola.

 

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on February 2, 2023, 2:55 am

Despite his workout routine I see Manny and his “body type” not aging particularly well…like Cabrera.

No doubt he becomes a 1b/DH in just a few years.

Losing his GG defense at 3b factors into his value.

I hope we extend him…but closer to the $30 mil/per he’s already signed for.

So if we have Tatis/Xander/Manny signed long term it becomes Soto vs. Ohtani.

There will be bidding wars with both from every significant team.

AJ/Seidler will already have some idea which one they prefer and which one they have the better chance at.

If the answer to both is Ohtani then the answer is to trade Soto next offseason for prospects and to use the $ for Ohtani.Good news is Ohtani is a FA after this year and Soto not till after 24’.

So we will know what happens with Ohtani before we have to make a decision on Soto.

So 3 options…..sign Ohtani/trade Soto next offseason.

Sign Ohtani keep Soto for 24’ and “go for it” and lose him end of season.

Don’t sign Ohtani(lose out to another team) and extend Soto/sign after 24’.

I guess the 4th option is to not sign Ohtani and lose Soto after 24’ and use the “saved” 70+ mil to get pitching if our fringe guys and closer prospects never emerge as TOR starters.

Bottom line…..if your Owner is selling to spend $250 mil every year there will always be ways to stay competitive and keep the excitement level high for the fans and the WS a possibility.