Quote from fenn68 on February 4, 2023, 6:20 am

Since I always have a bias towards keeping you “stars” (and even just regulars) at one position so they can perfect their defensive role and reduce any subtle impact on their hitting from moving around … I would lock Tatis in RF (speed / arm).

Part of that logic is that Bogaerts is here for the long run … very good chance Machado is extended … Merrill is on the fast track for an INF slot (until then Kim / Cronenworth) … that creates an elite INF already. Not out of the question extension for Kim or Cronenworth.

Part of that logic is the lack of certainty in the OF with only Grisham (3 years) and Soto (2 years) and no near term major prospects to step in …. Zavala maybe in 2-3 years.

Tatis in a corner OF slot would be best for the team now and in the long run.

Quote from fenn68 on February 4, 2023, 7:51 am

Preller and Seidler have been saying they want to build a winner now and one that remains a winner every year. I wonder how that may influence some of the coming roster decisions considering money is always an issue.

1. After this season, SP becomes a major issue that will not be addressed internally for 3-4 years (thinking a 5 man staff) … need some upper rotation stability beyond Musgrove and that will take a lot of payroll space immediately.

2. Position player internal impact options … except for Merrill … are also 3+ years out while after 23 Machado / Cruz / Carpenter can be FA … after 24 Kim / Soto … after 25 Nola / Cronenworth / Grisham. Will need money to extend or replace in kind.

Looking that after the season, priority 1 has to be at least two upper rotation SP to replace Darvish / Snell (or resign). At the same time re-signing Machado should be a major push to keep the offense basically in tact while no assurance a Soto resigning is possible. Note: not expecting Ohtani but addressing Machado first would be prudent since the Ohtani thing could drag on in a way that Machado goes elsewhere and not wait as the second choice.

While deploying money next winter … should they secure more of the future payroll level by addressing extensions for Kim, Cronenworth, Grisham? Tied to that is the future of Nola / Campusano as the catchers for the next 3 years … do they need to spend on an upgrade?

1 Extending Kim who would be 29 in his first year of an extension may not be the best move with Merrill coming and in 2025 Cronenworth could cover 2B

2. Extending Cronenworth who would be 32 in his first year of an extension would be pushing aging skill diminishment while he is not a model 1B/DH

3. Extending Grisham who would be 29 in his first year of an extension would not be popular but would depend on his performace going forward.

Can they be replaced with equivalent production for the same cost? Not expecting extension with Soto with the money going to Machado and SP adds. Better odds they sign Ohtani than extend Soto.

While we may focus on the big ticket players (Machado, Soto, Ohtani) we my be under valuing to the team the lower cost / quality production who can be replaced at that same bargain cost. Kim - Cronenworth - Grisham - Nola would all cost more if signed as FA. Need some payroll expansion to preserve that production until the internal prospects arrive (if they arrive).

Padres likely have their own version of a 5 year plan that includes a payroll level along with projecting players on the ML roster … so, making current decision with the 5 year plan in mind.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on February 4, 2023, 11:00 am

Quote from fenn68 on February 4, 2023, 7:51 am

Preller and Seidler have been saying they want to build a winner now and one that remains a winner every year. I wonder how that may influence some of the coming roster decisions considering money is always an issue.

1. After this season, SP becomes a major issue that will not be addressed internally for 3-4 years (thinking a 5 man staff) … need some upper rotation stability beyond Musgrove and that will take a lot of payroll space immediately.

2. Position player internal impact options … except for Merrill … are also 3+ years out while after 23 Machado / Cruz / Carpenter can be FA … after 24 Kim / Soto … after 25 Nola / Cronenworth / Grisham. Will need money to extend or replace in kind.

Looking that after the season, priority 1 has to be at least two upper rotation SP to replace Darvish / Snell (or resign). At the same time re-signing Machado should be a major push to keep the offense basically in tact while no assurance a Soto resigning is possible. Note: not expecting Ohtani but addressing Machado first would be prudent since the Ohtani thing could drag on in a way that Machado goes elsewhere and not wait as the second choice.

While deploying money next winter … should they secure more of the future payroll level by addressing extensions for Kim, Cronenworth, Grisham? Tied to that is the future of Nola / Campusano as the catchers for the next 3 years … do they need to spend on an upgrade?

1 Extending Kim who would be 29 in his first year of an extension may not be the best move with Merrill coming and in 2025 Cronenworth could cover 2B

2. Extending Cronenworth who would be 32 in his first year of an extension would be pushing aging skill diminishment while he is not a model 1B/DH

3. Extending Grisham who would be 29 in his first year of an extension would not be popular but would depend on his performace going forward.

Can they be replaced with equivalent production for the same cost? Not expecting extension with Soto with the money going to Machado and SP adds. Better odds they sign Ohtani than extend Soto.

While we may focus on the big ticket players (Machado, Soto, Ohtani) we my be under valuing to the team the lower cost / quality production who can be replaced at that same bargain cost. Kim - Cronenworth - Grisham - Nola would all cost more if signed as FA. Need some payroll expansion to preserve that production until the internal prospects arrive (if they arrive).

Padres likely have their own version of a 5 year plan that includes a payroll level along with projecting players on the ML roster … so, making current decision with the 5 year plan in mind.

I think some of our prospects could answer a lot of these ? In 2023 (at mlb or milb level)

1. Do we have ONE mid rotation arm from Groome/Honeywell/Avila/Wethers/ or other in our system to contribute in 2023 and be 💯 1 of 6 SP in 2024?

2. Can Ornelas or Howell take the next step/s in development and have Estury Ruiz type seasons?

3. Can Campusano be the #1 C or at least a 50/50 type from both sides?

4. Are Merrill/Zavala/Doersching/Mortarella/ and other A+ able to get to AA and perform by mid 2023?

5. Are Mazur and Wolf (maybe others) ready to compete for 2024 SP spots?

6. Is Nick Martinez a 2/32 SP? Is he a 2/17 hybrid? Or is his option not being picked up and he is opting out as well at seasons end? This will be up to Nick 💯..if he performs as expected he will be a Padre for 2024 and 25..

From a budget perspective the more +positive+ answers we get from these 6 questions the easier it will be to field a post season worthy 2024 team while keeping payroll from either going haywire or from not allowing us to maximize it ..

Lastly is Ethan Salas a prodigy who can be ready by 2025.. a la Benito Santiago but 2 yrs younger?