Quote from fenn68 on February 2, 2023, 5:33 am

Did listen to a reporter’s speculation on the Padres signing Ohtani … he thinks very possible.

Part of his rationale is that … his belief … the Padres were the finalist for Ohtani with the LAA and lost out since the NL did not have the DH. Arguably Ohtani is comfortable with  SD - Preller - Seidler. Also, Ohtani has said he wants to move to a top contending team … one that will be contending for years forward … SD appears to be operating in a way that will support that desire. Seem that winning is more important than “the big city” given he is a “low key” guy.

Part of his rationale is that Preller - Seidler did (and still do) want Ohtani as part of building a major winner stocked with high profile elite players. Will not lose him twice.

However, he did float the dialogue that it appears Japanese players do not what to be on teams with other Japanese “stars” (or even stars no longer playing). I don’t get it but appears to be a real cultural issue. Enter Darvish a FA. Will Preller have to make a trade-off by letting Darvish walk in FA to get Ohtani to sign? Can Preller somehow bridge the issue and add Ohtani and keep Darvish? Ohtani replacing Darvish will add only about $20-30MM over Darvish … but that has to come from somewhere while still trying to replace Snell-Martinez-Lugo.

One way or the other, guessing signing Ohtani will have a domino effect on the other FA signings and trades.

Possible they add Ohtani ($50MM) and let Darvish ($20MM) and Machado ($30MM) go as FA … get the best player in baseball, younger, better marketability and keep the offense strong (Ohtani vs Machado) and the SP stronger (Ohtani vs Darvish). Use the money from other FA to then build up the SP and 1B?

Quote from MrPadre19 on February 2, 2023, 6:51 am

The disadvantage of a player playing two important roles is if he gets hurt its like two different players going on the il at the same time.

Better because one roster spot covers DH/SP risky because his injury hurts twice.

 

Quote from fenn68 on February 2, 2023, 7:07 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on February 2, 2023, 6:51 am

The disadvantage of a player playing two important roles is if he gets hurt its like two different players going on the il at the same time.

Better because one roster spot covers DH/SP risky because his injury hurts twice.

 

Agree ... sort of depends how they construct a team sound him and the level of risk IF they believe he takes them to the championship level (plus the incremental revenue he generates).

Every major signing carries a risk of injury and under-performance that could be debilitating to the team ... clearly in any particular season ... sometime for an entire contract (see Hayward, Hosmer). So the risk assessment balances the downside of a lost season vs the upside of the other seasons covered in a long team contract. Is a team better off on a 10 year deal if the player delivers elite performance 9 of those years ... 8 ... 7? Basically the risk assessment made singing a 31 year old to a 10 year deal (Machado?) where they are not really expecting current performance levels to hold.

 

Quote from Henry Silvestre on February 2, 2023, 7:45 am

When we win the 2023 WS a lot could change as well...

The whole Othani, Japanese culture thing could be put to rest IF LAA falls out and we acquire him as a rental.. the highish (but not back breaking) package for him could be the best "investment' in selling him on staying a Padres long term Yu or no Yu..

Then again I read an article that suggested that even if LAA falls out of it, they may just keep Othani anyway cause if the $$$ he brings to the team (even for the last months of a non playoff run) that Moreno might prefer to squeeze every $$ from Othani before losing him

Quote from Henry Silvestre on February 2, 2023, 7:51 am

I see our current dilemma as a Good Problem to have... sort of like building a house..

Foundation has been poured and it's strong

Xander + Tatis for 10+ yrs (after 2023)

Joe (4 more after 23)

Next is to erect the walls .. a good contractor (AJP/Siedler) will spend wisely and build a very strong skelton..a bad one (Rockies) will go the reused wood route and pour a foundation that has cracks everywhere... But contractors/builders need to budget wisely or face the possibility of a project not getting "finished" or getting finished with lesser than ideal materials

Quote from fenn68 on February 2, 2023, 8:06 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on February 2, 2023, 7:45 am

When we win the 2023 WS a lot could change as well...

The whole Othani, Japanese culture thing could be put to rest IF LAA falls out and we acquire him as a rental.. the highish (but not back breaking) package for him could be the best "investment' in selling him on staying a Padres long term Yu or no Yu..

Then again I read an article that suggested that even if LAA falls out of it, they may just keep Othani anyway cause if the $$$ he brings to the team (even for the last months of a non playoff run) that Moreno might prefer to squeeze every $$ from Othani before losing him

Ohtani may be one of the few players that "balance" money, making the playoffs, and environment ... and some reports are that he is frustrated with LAA plus if he is impacted by 2023 results a good chance LAA fall behind HOU, TEX, and SEA in the AL West and will have a tough sell on being a future winner. Meanwhile, SD should be in the playoffs and could become the NL West champion ... NL champion ... WS champion based on a clear commitment to sustain. LAA will have a very very difficult time trying to resign him.

Side: not sure where Moreno's head is now ... he tried to sell the LAA (but did not get a bid to his liking) and had a major conflict with Anaheim on the stadium. If he is just circling the wagons prior to another attempt to sell ... will he try to make them more sellable ... that usually means stripping the team down to minimize liabilities going to the buyer and let them rebuild under they philosophy. If that is the plan ... not only not sign Ohtani but at some point trade Trout for a haul of low cost / elite prospects.

Quote from Jeremy Hill on February 2, 2023, 8:56 am

Manny 32/30

Darvish 19/21.5

Snell 16.6/10

Pomeranz 10/8.5

Martinez 10/8.66

Lugo 7.5/7.5

Hader 14.1/14.1

Carpenter 6.5/6

Garcia 3.75/3.5

That's about 120m in actual money and 110m in luxury tax money that could potentially come off the books at the end of the season. Obviously it can change a little bit based on option decisions, but that's a lot of money to spend and also a lot of talent to either try to bring back or replace.

Quote from BoosterSD on February 2, 2023, 8:58 am

Question about Ohtani. I know LAA didnt play him in the OF after the TJ sugery to protect his arm, but does he still want/able to play OF?

If so, that could also factor into the plans for SD. If he is a viable option for the OF, would lessen the need for Soto, right? Even if it is a split time of OF and DH.

Quote from BoosterSD on February 2, 2023, 9:12 am

Quote from Jeremy Hill on February 2, 2023, 8:56 am

That's about 120m in actual money and 110m in luxury tax money that could potentially come off the books at the end of the season. Obviously it can change a little bit based on option decisions, but that's a lot of money to spend and also a lot of talent to either try to bring back or replace.

Found a link to MLBTR list of potential FA after the 2023 season.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/12/2023-24-mlb-free-agents.html

For 1B, after Rhys Hopkins and our buddy Josh Bell, the pickings seem a little slim. So unless SD is interested in Hoskins, not a lot of improvement at 1B. Which could leave SD leaving Crone at 1B, and rearranging the INF to accommodate a possible Machado departure.

For the OF, once again not a lot of great options. Maybe look at Ian Happ or Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Bader could be an option as maybe Bellinger if his bat bounces back. And based on bounce backs as well, Gallo and Conforto could be options FA wise.

SP does have some intriguing options. Of course could resign Darvish or Snell, and the tease of possibly getting Ohtani. Then other possibilities could be (not in any order) Marquez, Giolito, Alex Cobb, Flaherty, Heaney, Mahle, Montas, Montgomery.

So maybe the best bang for the buck is resigning Machado and Snell if he has a healthy and good season, and then fill in behind with a couple of the other FA not named Ohtani.