Quote from fenn68 on November 30, 2019, 10:16 am

Quote from TatisJr on November 30, 2019, 9:23 am

I imagine there are quite a few middle to lower tier  prospects in the Padres system that a team would eat 4 mil of Kinslers deal to acquire. I just think Kinsler is a Padre in 2020 due to his relationship with Tatis, Machado, Hosmer, Tingler and Preller.

My guess is that to take Kinsler and his contract the quality of prospects that would have to be added is more robust than a few middle / lower tier prospects. Probably a very good prospect considering in the draft $4MM gets you a team a pretty high first round pick and internationally one of the top prospects.

Then at some point the value to the Padres of shedding Kinsler's contract is less than the value of who they have to attach ... especially if they can use that same prospect in a deal to get an upgrade in a different deal.

Long shot on Kinsler being moved ... and he is gone after the season so no real need to over react to his $4MM.

Quote from BoosterSD on November 30, 2019, 10:16 am

Actually, maybe there is a way that we can shed Myers salary, get Villar, and still have some room to sign either Dickerson or Akiyama or both. And I know that many on here will slaughter me for this suggestion, and NO, I dont have any family ties with this pitcher.

BAL gets Myers, Lawson, Nix, and either Quantrill or Morejon and SD gets Cobb and Villar. Cobb is due $14M in 2020 and $15M in 2021, while Villar is estimated to get $10.4M in arbitration, plus is still arb eligible in 2021. After arb for 2021, that is about $55M if SD keeps Villar for both years. So for about $13M BAL is buying 3 SP prospects that are either ready for 2020 or 2021 depending on when BAL wants to start the upswing of their rebuild and a CF that go get the ball and whose pop will play very easily in the AL East. SD saves that same $13M, and gets the 2B many on here want. And then we hope that Cobb can rebound from his off season surgery. And with Villar in house, maybe you can negotiate a 2 year deal with maybe a 3rd option year to get him off the $10.4M and maybe guarantee something like 2 for 12 with an option to provide security for the development of Edwards and Abrahms.

Quote from fenn68 on November 30, 2019, 10:30 am

Agree also on Myers not being moved (or more specifically his contract).

After a year of trying ... no traction. Probably no team even wants him and maybe valuing him more of a $5MM/yr player even if they had a need for a corner OF/1B ... in part because there are a few other cheap options around.

So, Myers carrying a 3 year / $61MM contract. If he is at best worth to another team $15MM ...Padres would have to supplement to cover $46MM. No point in dealing if the Padres are eating most of that shortfall. $46MM worth of "prospects" (in the view of the buyer) is astronomical. Other teams would be better served just signing some known FA and skip the prospect risk.

Myers is your 2020 LF.

Quote from fenn68 on November 30, 2019, 10:43 am

Quote from BoosterSD on November 30, 2019, 10:16 am

Actually, maybe there is a way that we can shed Myers salary, get Villar, and still have some room to sign either Dickerson or Akiyama or both. And I know that many on here will slaughter me for this suggestion, and NO, I dont have any family ties with this pitcher.

BAL gets Myers, Lawson, Nix, and either Quantrill or Morejon and SD gets Cobb and Villar. Cobb is due $14M in 2020 and $15M in 2021, while Villar is estimated to get $10.4M in arbitration, plus is still arb eligible in 2021. After arb for 2021, that is about $55M if SD keeps Villar for both years. So for about $13M BAL is buying 3 SP prospects that are either ready for 2020 or 2021 depending on when BAL wants to start the upswing of their rebuild and a CF that go get the ball and whose pop will play very easily in the AL East. SD saves that same $13M, and gets the 2B many on here want. And then we hope that Cobb can rebound from his off season surgery. And with Villar in house, maybe you can negotiate a 2 year deal with maybe a 3rd option year to get him off the $10.4M and maybe guarantee something like 2 for 12 with an option to provide security for the development of Edwards and Abrahms.

Might want to check but everything I have seen is that Villar is a FA after this season.

In 2020 ... Myers (-20) v Villar (+10) and Cobb (+14) actually reduces the chance of more adds like Dickerson.

Don't want anything to do with Cobb at his price with perpetual injuries and as for Villar rather take the gamble he goes FA and signing him to a multi-year at a lower AAV.

Rather keep Myers if he costs the future value of Lawson and either Quantrill / Morejon which I believe can be used in other deals for greater advantage. As for Nix ... if he was available to every other team via waivers ($5oK?) and everyone passed ... he has zero trade value. More of the 5th player in a 4 player deal.

Quote from onlypads on November 30, 2019, 11:01 am

Quote from fenn68 on November 30, 2019, 10:43 am

Quote from BoosterSD on November 30, 2019, 10:16 am

Actually, maybe there is a way that we can shed Myers salary, get Villar, and still have some room to sign either Dickerson or Akiyama or both. And I know that many on here will slaughter me for this suggestion, and NO, I dont have any family ties with this pitcher.

BAL gets Myers, Lawson, Nix, and either Quantrill or Morejon and SD gets Cobb and Villar. Cobb is due $14M in 2020 and $15M in 2021, while Villar is estimated to get $10.4M in arbitration, plus is still arb eligible in 2021. After arb for 2021, that is about $55M if SD keeps Villar for both years. So for about $13M BAL is buying 3 SP prospects that are either ready for 2020 or 2021 depending on when BAL wants to start the upswing of their rebuild and a CF that go get the ball and whose pop will play very easily in the AL East. SD saves that same $13M, and gets the 2B many on here want. And then we hope that Cobb can rebound from his off season surgery. And with Villar in house, maybe you can negotiate a 2 year deal with maybe a 3rd option year to get him off the $10.4M and maybe guarantee something like 2 for 12 with an option to provide security for the development of Edwards and Abrahms.

Might want to check but everything I have seen is that Villar is a FA after this season.

In 2020 ... Myers (-20) v Villar (+10) and Cobb (+14) actually reduces the chance of more adds like Dickerson.

Don't want anything to do with Cobb at his price with perpetual injuries and as for Villar rather take the gamble he goes FA and signing him to a multi-year at a lower AAV.

Rather keep Myers if he costs the future value of Lawson and either Quantrill / Morejon which I believe can be used in other deals for greater advantage. As for Nix ... if he was available to every other team via waivers ($5oK?) and everyone passed ... he has zero trade value. More of the 5th player in a 4 player deal.

There is always an outside chance Myers finally develops into his own.  So I generally agree.  I would rather keep him for one year, try to sell at a higher price point, and limit the dollars / years another team would require to move him if traded next year.

Quote from Cptjack on November 30, 2019, 11:06 am

Quote from fenn68 on November 30, 2019, 10:16 am

My guess is that to take Kinsler and his contract the quality of prospects that would have to be added is more robust than a few middle / lower tier prospects. Probably a very good prospect considering in the draft $4MM gets you a team a pretty high first round pick and internationally one of the top prospects.

You're taking information from a dissimilar source to draw that conclusion. Those players are allotted to the team outright. The closest comparable and most active is the IFA pool $. Which places 1WAR (Jankowski) or 10m (Hughes) on a <1m prospect. Which drastically reduces the cost to ship Kinsler from your assertion.

Quote from onlypads on November 30, 2019, 11:20 am

Quote from Cptjack on November 30, 2019, 11:06 am

Quote from fenn68 on November 30, 2019, 10:16 am

My guess is that to take Kinsler and his contract the quality of prospects that would have to be added is more robust than a few middle / lower tier prospects. Probably a very good prospect considering in the draft $4MM gets you a team a pretty high first round pick and internationally one of the top prospects.

You're taking information from a dissimilar source to draw that conclusion. Those players are allotted to the team outright. The closest comparable and most active is the IFA pool $. Which places 1WAR (Jankowski) or 10m (Hughes) on a <1m prospect. Which drastically reduces the cost to ship Kinsler from your assertion.

Agree that a draft comp is inappropriate and that Kinsler could be moved for relatively cheap.  I also believe Kinsler fills 2B for a non-contender and is just the kind of one-year deal a rebuilding team targets (albeit a bit costly).  That being said, what do you think the prospect price is to move him? For me, it isn't worth it if the price exceeds excess four (4) depth prospects (lower tier Top 30 and Triple AAA depth with consolidation in mind).  Turning bronze / silver into gold payroll relief...

Quote from WindsorUK on November 30, 2019, 11:58 am

Definitely believe we stay in house for our 2nd baseman. No need to throw money at someone for a season ( or perhaps half season?) to keep the bag warm for Edwards.

Short of the club shifting dollars( read: Myers, Kinsler, Hedges), I'd rather spend money on a OF bat.

Quote from fenn68 on November 30, 2019, 12:25 pm

Quote from Cptjack on November 30, 2019, 11:06 am

Quote from fenn68 on November 30, 2019, 10:16 am

My guess is that to take Kinsler and his contract the quality of prospects that would have to be added is more robust than a few middle / lower tier prospects. Probably a very good prospect considering in the draft $4MM gets you a team a pretty high first round pick and internationally one of the top prospects.

You're taking information from a dissimilar source to draw that conclusion. Those players are allotted to the team outright. The closest comparable and most active is the IFA pool $. Which places 1WAR (Jankowski) or 10m (Hughes) on a <1m prospect. Which drastically reduces the cost to ship Kinsler from your assertion.

Agree that the comparison are not perfectly comparable but illustrates the issue.

For note: The International money given for Jankowski was just a right for the Padres to spend $800K ... sleeves out of the vest if the team did not plan to spend it anyway. As for Hughes the net pick-up by the Padres was $7.4MM for the 74th pick in the up-coming draft (a Padre gamble on the unknown that did not turn out well ... basically a bad deal from the get go).

Still boils down to a buyer deciding which Padres prospect is worth $4MM since Kinsler is worth zero (or close to zero) to any team out there and do they have better uses for that $4MM. We know it is not Nix since he cleared waivers ... project other Padres prospects at the same prospect level and probably not them. So, my point is that to move Kinsler one of the better (not blue chip) prospects have to be the price ... at this point is moving Kinsler worth it v the loss of that prospect. Have to see the specific prospect and what they would do with the $4MM space to make that call.

Then extrapolate that out to the Myers value gap ... whew.

I need to see a real buyer come out of the woodwork and make an acceptable offer before I am convinced he can be moved without damaging the future. The buyer is in control of this one.