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2B - Use in house options - FA Signing - Trade?
#41 · November 30, 2019, 1:00 pm
Quote from fenn68 on November 30, 2019, 10:43 am
Might want to check but everything I have seen is that Villar is a FA after this season.
In 2020 ... Myers (-20) v Villar (+10) and Cobb (+14) actually reduces the chance of more adds like Dickerson.
Don't want anything to do with Cobb at his price with perpetual injuries and as for Villar rather take the gamble he goes FA and signing him to a multi-year at a lower AAV.
You are right, Villar is a FA after the 2020 season, and since he is close to being non tendered and a FA you could have some bargaining power with him. So I would still want to try and sign him to a two year deal, with maybe an option to provide security until the arrival of Edwards and to reduce the monies due him. Maybe $5.5M this season, $6.5M next season, and an option for 2022 at $8M or $1M buyout. That guarantees him $13M, and right now it seems no team is buying him at $10M per season.
So if I can get Villar to take that deal, the running total that I have going if SD made that trade, and signed Dickerson, along with the dead money for Kinsler, we would be right about $136M on a $140M payroll.
And yes, the big risk is Cobb and what he can do for you. Personally, I would take the chance of SP bouncing back and being worth $14.5M over the next two years, over the roll of the dice that Myers ever figures something out and becomes worth his $22.5M for the next 3!! Plus in 2021, with Richards contract up, Oliveras money gone, and Kinsler off the books, Cobb is paid for plus about $6M extra for additional needs. We would still owe Myers an additional $1.75M over those 3 monies combined and still have a hole in LF and 2B. Whereas in my scenario, I have a new LF that can actually hit, a 2B that can switch hit and steal bases, and a SP that might offer something versus Myers who is a drain on the fan base and probably the clubhouse.
#42 · November 30, 2019, 1:06 pm
Quote from onlypads on November 30, 2019, 11:01 am
There is always an outside chance Myers finally develops into his own. So I generally agree. I would rather keep him for one year, try to sell at a higher price point, and limit the dollars / years another team would require to move him if traded next year.
Let's be honest, there is really not. He is going into what his age 29 season, he has big, fat checks coming, and there is nothing that SD can do about it. There is no simply no reason for him to even try and improve at this point. It is absolutely our best chance now to try and trade him, while we have a surplus of arms that are healthy and full of ML potential and get out of this abomination of a contract.
#43 · November 30, 2019, 1:29 pm
Why would we take Cobb? If we are trying to get rid of Myers that is its own deal. Swapping one bad contract for another doesn't really help a contender. We would be trading one hole on the team for another. The point of trading Myers would be to free up money and a roster spot. Trading his money for other bad money doesn't do anything for us.
As far as Villar is concerned, I don't see why nobody wants him. I believe the new WAR math says that 1 WAR is worth $8 million. Villar will be getting paid $10 million if we claim him. Didn't Villar just have a 3 WAR season or close to it? By my advanced math that works out to be a very good deal. I mean, doesn't JBJ get paid $11.5 million this year? I have seen that several people here would have liked for us to pick him up. How did their numbers stack up? Villar- +50BA(.273), +20OBP(.339), +3HR(24), and +32SB(40) with equal defense or close to it. $10 million per year doesn't get you nearly as much as it used to, but that still looks pretty damn good!
Playing a rookie at 2B is what we did with Urias(kinda). It didn't work out. No 2B on our roster has nearly the pedigree that Urias had except for Kinsler, who is way past his prime and showed he could no longer start last year. We had all the same 2B on the roster last year that we do this year. Why on Earth should we expect better results? We need to improve our offense. There is a player available who can greatly improve it and probably be our 2nd or 3rd best hitter, and he is very cheap for what he brings. What is the downside?
I know we still need OF but where are they going to go? We already have 8 on our 40-man roster. We need to trade someone if we want to add. If we want to trade Myers great! We can use that money for Dickerson. But we have to improve WHERE WE CAN. If that is 2B then that is where the money should go.
#44 · November 30, 2019, 2:03 pm
Agree with the "where we can" sentiment. Offense is offense. Plus, he is a tear on the base baths. If he hits first, Tatis can be pushed back to assist in driving in runs. Villar can be had at one year and will give us a marked "net improvement." That improvement will be hard to match in the OF/SP for a similar cost.
I just really don't know what we have still. I am really excited about Edwards and Abrams, but it is still really early. The OF has potential, but I have more questions than in 2018: Trammel, Grisham, Renfroe, Cordero, Ona, Olivares, and Margot? There could be some legitimate ML talent in there. I can't get myself to give up on Cordero -- what a shame. I just don't want to sell low. Something along the lines of a Dickerson FA signing is reasonable.
Of our larger trade chips, really only comfortable with trading Hedges, Allen, Lucchesi (I think Q has more upside), Morejon, Ivan Castillo (think Arias / Edwards / Abrams have more upside), Bolanos / Lawson (need to keep one), Margevicious, Torrens, and France (blocked). Sure if we get legitimate talent, I could open up a bit and maybe move Arias with other pieces.
#45 · November 30, 2019, 2:05 pm
Quote from JasonE135 on November 30, 2019, 1:29 pmWhy would we take Cobb? If we are trying to get rid of Myers that is its own deal. Swapping one bad contract for another doesn't really help a contender. We would be trading one hole on the team for another. The point of trading Myers would be to free up money and a roster spot. Trading his money for other bad money doesn't do anything for us.
Three reasons, that I explained earlier. One, it will allow you to get Villar, without another team jumping us in line via waiver wire. Two, IMO there is a better chance that Cobb actually performs to his contract versus Myers. And three, if you can get Villar to add a second year; actually a need for SD now, with a more team friendly deal for 2020 and a higher deal for 2021, then you can still pick up Dickerson, and still have about $6M for other items for SD in 2020.
In my scenario, Myers gone....WIN! Villar at 2B for two years.....WIN! And Dickerson in LF.....WIN! And if Cobb can bounce back and be productive in 2020 and 2021......friggin bonus as far as I am concerned.
And yes, I dont know why the industry seams to be sour on Villar, the numbers are there. Mind you, there will be some power reduction because of switching from Camden Yards to Petco, but the speed could play even better, more doubles and triples perhaps in SD. So if I can get BAL to take all of Myers contract, get Villar, by taking Cobbs contract and shipping BAL some prospects that are not in the top 5 of our system, Im gold dude.
#46 · November 30, 2019, 2:13 pm
Quote from onlypads on November 30, 2019, 2:03 pmI just really don't know what we have still. I am really excited about Edwards and Abrams, but it is still really early. The OF has potential, but I have more questions than in 2018: Trammel, Grisham, Renfroe, Cordero, Ona, Olivares, and Margot? There could be some legitimate ML talent in there. I can't get myself to give up on Cordero -- what a shame. I just don't want to sell low. Something along the lines of a Dickerson FA signing is reasonable.
Trammell, Cordero, Ona, and Oliveras do not need to be answered prior to the start of the 2020 season. They all have options and are already on the 40 man or not needed to be protected I believe. And Grisham is new so we know he is not going anywhere. So that only leaves Margot and Renfroe that are not living up to their potential as of yet. Renfroe gave us a wicked good taste in the 1st half and then faded into oblivion. Margot, defense is great, but is a platoon player at this point IMO.
So if Fenn is correct, and we do not have to go playoffs or bust this season. Trade Margot in a package for a corner OF improvement if possible, and let Grisham run wild in 2020 and see what we have. And then Trammell has this year to grow as well. And see if Renfroe is a platoon guy as well or if he can give us a whole year as well.
#47 · November 30, 2019, 2:14 pm
On Villar ... assuming all other 29 teams pass on claiming him for 1 year at $10MM ... have to think there is a valuation parameter we are not considering ... beyond not a lot of teams actually needing (or wanting) a $10MM 2B. Would also add that Villar played about 1/2 of his games last year at SS and played SS more than 2B over his career should, in theory, expand his value.
I get that $10MM is not chump change to dole out for a one and done if a team does not see the player as a difference maker to get them in the playoffs. If there is $10MM to spend ... better place to deploy it maybe as a base year for a longer term deal.
Getting the sense his 2017 and 2018 performance may be weighing down his 2019 performance. Not “bad” years but not $10MM years.
If multiple teams are interested in him ... might be all playing the same game. They have their valuation and target contract (lets say $14MM/2 years) ... let him clear waiver and make that bid. If he gets more elsewhere ... OK the team does not think he is worth that and good for him. If only the Padres are interested, maybe a 2 year deal at a lower AAV is feasible ... and the objective is getting the player at the lowest price so the money differential can be used elsewhere. Basically he is good but valuable at the buyer’s price and not critical path add in 2020.
I will not be surprised if the Padres add Villar ... but on a better deal than 1 year / $10MM. OK with that. Without having to pay Pomeranz’ bonus this year ... more flexibility plus Preller probably has a very good idea the minimum price on other FA .. and if he is playing in their games.
#48 · November 30, 2019, 3:50 pm
All I want for Xmas is JPN to post 2B Tetsudo Tamara.. The "Trout" of JAPAN..
#49 · December 1, 2019, 7:13 am
I don't know that an upgrade at 2B is a necessity France .696 OPS as rookie likely like .740 Soph... Even Villar .736 career (playing in bandboxes) wouldn't be much of an offense upgrade if at all.. I think Quiroz can put similar numbers up to.. Garcia pretty much did in 2019.. Kinsler did not .. So basically unlessnis WHIT or someone like that .. I don't think 2B is where our $$ should go