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2B - Use in house options - FA Signing - Trade?
#11 · November 29, 2019, 3:31 pm
$10 million for the kind of offensive improvement that Villar would provide is an exceptional value. If Fowler wants to improve he cannot cry poor with THAT kind of value available. Even if he gives us his lifetime averages, that is still .261/.328 15-HR and 40-SB per 500AB. That would be the second best offensive production on the team outside of Tatis. If you cannot pay a cheap $10 million for that then you do not really care about improving. If Fowler is unwilling to add that little bit, then our only chance for real improvement will be to gut the farm system. We got a Grisham and Davies type POSSIBLE upgrade and it cost us Urias and Lauer. To make a BIG upgrade, it will cost us $10 million OR multiple top prospects like Patino and Campusano. Even then, we have to pay whoever we trade for. Unless they are pre-arb they will be making close to $10 million if they are any good. Villar is cheap, highly productive, fills an area of need and relatively cheap. He is the best improvement we can realistically hope for.
#12 · November 29, 2019, 3:38 pm
Quote from David Nevin on November 29, 2019, 3:27 pm$10 mil....no prospects..... for a 3.0+ WAR 2b for one year with heads on the chopping block and an obvious need?
I could see it happening.
... but then something else won't at another position of need. This move alone would put "real" (counting cash flow i.e. Pomeranz' entire Signing bonus + 4 MM base salary in 2020 unless I see somewhere it's split differently) payroll at $145 MM.
Would need to presumably trade Myers just to get down below 140 MM, let alone have anything else to spend!
#13 · November 29, 2019, 3:57 pm
I don’t see the Padres going the Villar route. I like him as a player. I just don’t see it happening though. 10 mill for Villar and a little over 4 on Kinsler means almost 15 million tied up to second base for 2020. I doubt the Padres will use their funds that way. Villar on a cheaper multi year contract doesn’t make much sense to me either due to the organization having Quiroz, Miller, Edwards, Abrams and Arias waiting in the wings. Kipnis or Sogard on a one year deal makes more sense. I expect the Padres to go with a cheaper vet like Sogard/Kip or stay in house with a Quiroz, Miller, Kinsler, Garcia group battling in ST. Not exciting just what I expect.
#14 · November 29, 2019, 4:19 pm
Quote from Brian Connelly on November 29, 2019, 3:38 pmQuote from David Nevin on November 29, 2019, 3:27 pm$10 mil....no prospects..... for a 3.0+ WAR 2b for one year with heads on the chopping block and an obvious need?
I could see it happening.
... but then something else won't at another position of need. This move alone would put "real" (counting cash flow i.e. Pomeranz' entire Signing bonus + 4 MM base salary in 2020 unless I see somewhere it's split differently) payroll at $145 MM.
Would need to presumably trade Myers just to get down below 140 MM, let alone have anything else to spend!
Forgot about Pomeranz ... so the $145MM is about right either the "listed" payroll with amortized bonuses or the cash flow .... looks as though Pomeranz' bonus payment now offsets the earlier bonuses paid to Machado, Hosmer, and Myers.
Another $10MM for Villar (only for 1 year) moves them to $155MM. Write off getting a TOR arm (or TOR pretender) who will be $20MM+. Would be difficult to add an upgrade to the OF who is not getting a decent paycheck. Doubt in 2020 Villar would get them to the playoffs if he is the only other upgrade. Better choice is to spend that $10MM on an asset that also has two or three years control.
Maybe that is why letting him clear waivers and negotiate a multi-year deal with a lower 2020 could work out better.
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On clearing more payroll space .. been trying to do that with Myers for a year and either no team will take much of his contract and / or demand elite prospects. Easy to say give them A, B, C to take his contract but apparently the other teams are not seeing the transaction in the same light. Not much other big money to move Yates? Renfroe? Hedges? Margot? Yates would make no sense if the objective is winning in 2020. Renfroe - Hedges - Margot will cost about the same as Villar ... so deal all three the a bigger need to backfill in the OF ... at a cost.
#15 · November 29, 2019, 4:31 pm
you guys are acting like we need to replace Babe Ruth at 2B....
Our 2B (COMBINED) for 2019 .226/.323/.361 .684 OPS TWO SB, 16 HRs 61 RBIs 23 doubles,,,, 2nd worst OPS behind C .627, worst Hr's and 2B's per position on the club... Those numbers (as a unit) are very easy to replace and improved on... By the way CF was exactly .684 OPS as a unit as well... the other 6 positions were all > 1B .734/3B .748/SS .873/LF .747/RF .786/DH .749... Hopefully Grisham and Margot bring CF up to the .730+ range for 2020... and I am hopeful that wether we go internal or external at 2B our boys can put up an OPS over .700 there... C is the other position that really needs to go +.080 OPS to the low .700 as well .627 is a serious anchor weighing us down...
Just for fun LAD 2B .239/.327 pretty close really...... BUT SLG .440 OPS .767... HUGE DIFFERENCE
#16 · November 29, 2019, 4:49 pm
By the way mlbtraderumors potential non-tenders -- 2B Phillies Cesar Hernandez could be an interesting one for us... ( When I first saw Urias at LE I said to myself, Luis looks like Hernandez, maybe we over hyped Luis, but he would be lucky to have a Hernandez type career from what I,ve seen so far)..
#17 · November 29, 2019, 5:24 pm
However we do it, improvement will cost money. It's almost impossible to improve by spending league minimum to $3 million per year. The players who make that kind of money are rookie prospects to players with less than 3 years in. The rookies cannot be counted on to produce offense. The players with 1-2 years in and have proven they can be relied upon to produce well offensively are the most expensive guys in all of baseball to acquire. Guys like Tatis or Acuna. I would imagine guys like Kipnis or Hernandez will require around $10 million or more per year. If not there must be a reason for it. If we want to rely on a rookie fine, didn't we do that last year? Do we have anybody for 2B with more promise than Urias? If we don't then how can we realistically hope for better production? It will just be another hit-or-miss.
#18 · November 29, 2019, 6:14 pm
Quote from JasonE135 on November 29, 2019, 5:24 pmHowever we do it, improvement will cost money. It's almost impossible to improve by spending league minimum to $3 million per year. The players who make that kind of money are rookie prospects to players with less than 3 years in. The rookies cannot be counted on to produce offense. The players with 1-2 years in and have proven they can be relied upon to produce well offensively are the most expensive guys in all of baseball to acquire. Guys like Tatis or Acuna. I would imagine guys like Kipnis or Hernandez will require around $10 million or more per year. If not there must be a reason for it. If we want to rely on a rookie fine, didn't we do that last year? Do we have anybody for 2B with more promise than Urias? If we don't then how can we realistically hope for better production? It will just be another hit-or-miss.
How we view improvement will be different depending on the rest of the moves the Padres make this offseason. If they get a TOR arm and an impact bat I’ll be less concerned about who mans 2nd. It’s not like we got even decent production from 2nd base last year. Another huge aspect to the 2bagger spot is based on who the catcher is for the bulk of 2020. If the Padres have Hedges getting a ton of starts and batting 8th, a better offense second baseman will be crucial IMO. Another Hedges/Kinsler 7,8 in the lineup isn’t doable again. You can live with one glove first guy in the lineup not 2. If the Padres have Mejias bat in for the bulk of 2o20 and have a good 1-7 lineup an in house guy like Kinsler, Garcia, Quiroz or Miller hitting 8th would be easier to tolerate. If the club has an improved bullpen, starting rotation and improved offensive production from C and OF spots the 2020 Padres will be much improved.
#19 · November 29, 2019, 6:49 pm
I was just talking about money. A TOR arm or an impact bat will cost a ton. Money for a FA signing or prospects in trade. We cannot upgrade for free. Villar is a pretty good deal for $10 million for the production he brings. A $10 million starter would be worse than the pitchers we have. We could get Dickerson for the OF for around $10 million and that would be a good deal too. We can get Villar and Dickerson for $20 million. We can get Strasburg for $30 million. I personally think the first option gives us more wins. All I am saying is no improvements will be free unless we gut the farm. Patino for Gray? We would be trading 2 year of okay, maybe plus starter but definitely not a TOR for 6 years of likely good, possibly TOR or possible bust in Patino. We only rip other teams off when WE are the ones trading for prospects. Usually far away prospects. Trading for mlb talent will mean WE will be getting the short end of the stick.
#20 · November 29, 2019, 7:21 pm
“Trading for mlb talent will mean WE will be getting the short end of the stick.“
Not necessarily. Sometimes trades pan out for both teams. Sometimes the buyer wins because the prospects don’t pan out. Sometimes the seller wins because the prospects turn into stars. It varies and there are all kinds of different outcomes to trades. That’s what makes them fun to talk about.