Quote from brent wolff on April 4, 2026, 8:56 pm

By May 1, both Canning and Waldron will replace Buehler and Marquez in the rotation.

The new look rotation will be:

#1 = Pivetta; #2 = King; #3 = Vasquez; #4 = Canning; #5 = Waldron.  Near mid-season, Musgrove returns and the Pads go with a 6 man rotation until September.  Go Pads!

Quote from fenn68 on April 5, 2026, 9:32 am

Yesterday Canning, Matsui, and Adam all got rehab appearances in EP. Canning got in 51 pitchers. So IF there are no relapses some decisions on the staff are coming soon ... along with Waldron appearing ready.

Guessing on order:

1. Waldron ... maybe on the next home stand ... should bump Marquez (if Marquez has another bad outing) but a chance they just add him and option Rodriguez.
2. Adam ... appears to be very close and is trying back to back appearances today. He likely forces the move not made by adding Waldron.

So far somewhat "easy" losing only Marquez (but don't rule out a phantom injury).

3.  Matsui is likely next ... but harder choices. Option Hart who has been very effective (both LHRP) or DFA Marinaccio (who also has been effective). Maybe a minor deal otherwise probably opt to option Hart to preserve a good arm for call-up purposes.

4. Canning may be last working him into a full SP condition ... and that may be a call on Waldron vs Buehler ... so a coming battle for survival between them.

Then the unknown about Musgrove ... who given his lack of ST and just starting to throw ... may drag into mid-late May (if at all).

Plus, in the back of my mind, is that if things go really south with all the #5 SP candidates ... don't forget Sears who has the ML history of staying healthy, making his starts, eating innings and a slight below average ERA ... had a good first start in AAA this year. It is for the #5 so don't need much just better than that alternatives.

 

Quote from Randy Manese on April 7, 2026, 6:20 am

Song is eligible to come of the injured list, however, he has not shown much impact with his bat so far in AAA.  With only one double despite a .429 BABIP, he only has a 77 wRC+; he has upped his BA and reduced his K rate from ST, but the latter number is still over 30%.  By the way, his ST wRC+ was 110, which is a figure the Padres would be thrilled to get from Song.  On a more positive note, he has played flawlessly in the field, spending most of his time at shortstop thus giving the Padres a lot of flexibility to rest their older infielders.

Guessing Padres will keep him down in El Paso for the maximum 20 days (essentially through this weekend) and then decide whether they will need to option him until he shows more at the plate.  It could be that his oblique is still bothering his swing, so we'll see what Song does at high altitude El Paso.  Further, they probably want to see more of France and Castellanos since it is likely one of them will need to be released if Song is deemed ready.

Quote from fenn68 on April 7, 2026, 7:59 am

Can see Song being optioned to EP. He sure looks to need the steady playing time to adapt to the US game and sitting on the bench in the ML is likely not all that good for the longer term.

Padres could stick with the status quo with France being the back-up 2B if Croney out or over to SS if Bogaerts out. That does not seem like an option that is workable long run. If not Song the only other option is McCoy who just cannot hit in the ML.

So a lot depends on Preller's near term projection on Song .... but with the potential "excess" of RP that can't be optioned ... might they swing a "minor" deal for a legit veteran bench middle INF for 2026? Hopefully a RHH who might also spell (when needed) Cronenworth vs LHP where he seems to struggle (while giving him a break).

Quote from sportwarrior on April 8, 2026, 8:19 am

I would very much prefer Song stay in AAA for some extra cook time to better adjust him to state-side pitching.

Also, I gotta say that Marquez looked pretty solid the other day vs Pitt. The knuckle curve looked good, the fastball was quite usable, and overall his presence was much better than I expected. The good start obviously helped, but even without it, I think it's an easy choice to jettison Buehler before Marquez when the next man is ready.

Quote from Randy Manese on April 8, 2026, 3:23 pm

With Adam eligible to come off the IL list, barring a trade of a RP, it seems like we are down to optioning out either Rodriguez or Morgan, both of which have two options left.  Marinaccio has performed exceedingly well and deserves more time with the club.  Because his command has been spotty, I'd option Morgan to help him in that area and also try to stretch him out a little because he has a repertoire fitting of a SP.

If we think of Miller, Estrada, Adam and Marinaccio as mostly 4 to 5 out pitchers, then it would help to have someone who is capable of going longer than 2+ innings, from the right side if needed.  Waldron would fit that mold, but he might be the 5th SP if Buehler shows poorly in his next start.  Morgan would likely benefit more by going down than Rodriguez, who eventually will replace Adam in the bullpen whether it is this year or next.  Padres are very fortunate to have so many valid options in their pen compared to the majority of clubs in MLB.

Quote from fenn68 on April 8, 2026, 4:11 pm

Yeh, tough call Morgan vs Rodriguez being optioned as Adam is activated ... agree Marinaccio has been too effective to let go. Leaning towards Morgan going down.

I know the idea of Morgan converting to SP was floated in ST. My hesitation NOW is that he has been in professional ball since 2022 and never was a starter and by year his innings were 3 - 35 - 61 - 61 all in one, sometimes two inning appearances. The conversion to a 5-6 inning arm takes some time (and still just a guess on his ability to covert). For 2026, he has more value as the call-up relief arm during the season (always needed).

Now maybe over the winter ... a change in training routine and then in ST a legit effort to make him a SP makes sense. Pretty sure we hear a lot of speculation on Morgan, Morejon, Miller, Hart being converted to SP ... considering the potential FA and the lack of a compelling SP prospect ready to make the ML (at least at this point).

The Waldron activation may be the more difficult ... not sure what they think of Waldron vs Marquez vs Buehler (usually not the way I see it) ... but with no great SP in reserve ... keeping all three (one in long relief) has some merit meaning the other of Rodriguez or Morgan is down. However, that thins the pen and that could backfire. I guess they could keep Waldron on the rehab for 30 days ... so maybe not an issue until the end of the month and they get to see a couple more starts from everyone to make a clearer /more informed call.

 

 

Quote from Randy Manese on April 8, 2026, 5:27 pm

Not thinking of Morgan joining the rotation this year but rather used like Hart is being used, i.e., when the need arises for a long relief role to eat more innings and preserve the higher leverage RPs.  If we could put Morgan on a 45-50 pitch limit as an "opener", just like we're doing currently to build up Canning, we could see how he does with less than 4 days rest given that he's probably got the "freshest" arm of those in the bullpen.

I think it's worth a try unless Padres do go with a 6 pitcher rotation after Canning and Musgrove come back.  That, however, puts a lot of strain on the remaining 7 members of the pen to be able to go multiple days in a row besides warming up even if not used; an overly heavy workload would be very detrimental to our bullpen's effectiveness.

Since Adam pitched today for El Paso, don't see him coming up until after the Colorado series but certainly before the max 30 days in rehab period is up (likely versus Seattle - 14 to 16 April).  Waldron, if he has another good outing, should be right on his heels could even be starting on 4/19 against the Angels on the road to give King some extra days of rest before the team flies to Colorado.  Even though Waldron hasn't been using his knuckles as often as he has in the past, it does flutter better in less than extreme altitudes so that is my reason for the 4/19 date guess.  The max rehab period for both Adam and Waldron is 4/23 and Padres are not in the position to lose either from their 40-man roster.  Padres have far fewer off-days in May then March/April, so have to take advantage of the time to build up contingencies in their rotation and finding the right sequencing in the bullpen.

 

Quote from fenn68 on April 9, 2026, 7:00 am

Normally don't make any conclusions on players / teams until after about 25 games but still can make some observations after the current 12 games.

6 wins / 6 losses against some "projected" good teams (and quality pitchers) is actually encouraging when you consider the lack of any significant contribution by the 3 major players: Machado; Tatis; Merrill. Looking at 2026 vs their 2024-2025 (2 year) stats and we see the future with MAJOR improvement.

BA: Machado (.206 vs .275); Tatis (.196 vs 271); Merrill (.200 vs .280).

Also "interesting" is the BB rate comparison: Machado (24% vs 8%); Tatis (11% vs 11%); Merrill (6% vs 6%). Clearly not pitching to Machado ... probably given no one on base ahead of him but overall not seeing the players "chasing" more considering the lack of hitting.

Of concern is the K rate: Machado (24% vs 19%); Tatis (28% vs 20%); and Merrill (19% vs 19%). We know both Tatis and Machado go into extreme hot and cold spells so should see a turn around on both but for now frustrating to watch.

Hopefully the homestead ignites the turn-around.