Quote from fenn68 on May 10, 2026, 3:10 am

Baseball is just hard to predict results. As the Padres approach the 25% point of the season (they have played 39) ... they sit with the 6th BEST record in MLB. Somehow that has been achieved with the 25th ranked offense (97 wRC+) and the 17th ranked pitching (4.14 ERA). On the plus side, they are 6th best in defensive WAR.

The who would have predicted the only four players with a greater than 100 wRC+ would be Bogaerts, France, Andujar, and Campusano. Actually after last season who would have predicted the last three would be on the team?

Clearly the core of Machado (98), Merrill (85), and Tatis (78) have under performed "average" and their own history. Worse are the next level players.

I know the refrain that by the end of the season they will be at their "back of the baseball card" stats but at this point that is going to take really hot sustained performance ... and the fact that has to come from all these guys is just hard to project.

However, from an offensive perspective the under performers are not alone among the big names / big money players, consider:

Devers (70), Chapman (79), Adames (57), Story (37), Duran (57), Marte (71), Bregman (90), Bichette (62), Semein (73), Turner (83), Springer (81), Raleigh (67).

Remembering last season the Padres won 90 games and made the playoffs with a terrible offense ... but a plus pitching staff highlighted by an elite bullpen. Bullpen may be better this year but the jury is out on the SP past King and Vasquez. Although ...over the full 2025 the SP was in flux other than Pivetta and Vasquez ... injuries eliminated major parts of the season for the likes of King, Darvish ... so even last year a lot of drama in the SP and the Padres still won.

With 75% of the season to go ... starting off with the 6th best record ... and not unrealistically thinking the offense will preform better (especially the core) based on the veteran pasts and the pen will remain strong ... see a clear path to achieving the playoffs again. SP again remains the swing element ... especially past King and Vasquez. Health (Pivetta, Musgrove) and ability of the others to be at least "average" in the #3-5 slots (going 5-6 innings and yielding less than 4 runs more often than not).

Quote from Randy Manese on May 10, 2026, 2:30 pm

Giolito looked good today, throwing 70% of his pitches for strikes in his San Antonio start.  Seems ready to pitch in the majors very soon!

Quote from fenn68 on May 10, 2026, 2:50 pm

Quote from Randy Manese on May 10, 2026, 2:30 pm

Giolito looked good today, throwing 70% of his pitches for strikes in his San Antonio start.  Seems ready to pitch in the majors very soon!

Roster Resource has him penciled in to start for the Padres next Sunday ... replacing Waldron in the rotation.

They still have Waldron going on Tuesday then ? Waldron could go to the pen or be DFA. If the pen, some one else is on the bubble or another "injury" for the IL.

Quote from Randy Manese on May 10, 2026, 7:13 pm

Unless Waldron looks amazing on Tuesday, it will probably be him since it's unlikely he will be claimed if DFA'd.  This will allow him to go own to EP and become another depth piece either as a SP or RP.   Marinaccio looked like he was on his way out a couple of weeks ago, but since then has basically been lights out.

Padres pitching will continue to get stronger as the season progresses, both in SP and RP, as injuries heal and pitchers' command and mechanics improve down in the minors.  When the offense starts performing to their expectations, including possibly adding another potent bat at the trade deadline (preferably a LH hitter), this is going to be a seriously scary team.

Quote from fenn68 on May 11, 2026, 1:57 am

Don't recall the specific ranking but in the post game wrap by Bob Scanlan he said the Padres had the worst BA/OPS in the league vs SP ... BUT the were the 4th (?) best vs RP.

That is a very large difference ... hard to explain. However, does make for more interesting end of games. That sort of played out in the STL series ... especially vs the SP.

Quote from fenn68 on May 11, 2026, 2:32 am

Almost impossible to accurately project SP for the rest of the season given other than King and Vasquez the rest have a lot of questions as to whether they can be effective long term or be healthy.

I have my doubts we see an effective Musgrove or Pivetta in 2026 ... maybe if needed they get activated late in the season but effectiveness?

Of the rest ... I will give the last three to Buehler, Giolito, and Canning with Marquez staying on the IL for a long time. Don't expect a top of the rotation arms  out of that but ... hopefully ... at least some positive performances and a just below average ERA. At least there is history with those three that suggest they can be effective.

Hard to see Waldron sticking around by bumping someone out of the pen. Given the state of pitching in the ML ... once on waivers I think Waldron has a good chance of being claimed. A team could use him as a stop gap then in turn DFA him later. Small price to make a claim to fill a short term hole.

The real challenge is to make SP calls IF one (or more) of Marquez, Pivetta, or Musgrove are really ready to be activated. No one can be optioned and the bullpen is stacked. That problem is probably months away. Usually the pitchers will make that decision easier by the performances but if all are at last effective hard to justify dropping one to be replaced by he unknown of a returnee from a long injury ... especially in a pennant race.

Going to be a lot of tough calls by Niebla, Stammen, and Preller through out the season. Maybe if things fall right Preller may end up with some trade chips with "excess" SP ... since all could be FA (except Musgrove) not much in return but better than just a release.

Quote from fenn68 on May 11, 2026, 2:50 am

In the past 7 days and being moved to lead-off, Merrill's offense seems to have come alive. However, at the same time Laureano (who was hot) is now cold. Positive that Bogaerts is still producing.

However, for the rest of the season, I put the monkey on Machado and Tatis to start and sustain hitting. Without them, don't see the rest of the line-up carrying the team over the long haul. The last 7 days have not been encouraging ... Machado (037/100/148 ... -32 wRC+) and Tatis (160/250/200 ... 37 wRC+). That is really bad. Note both are in the 29% K range ... high for them. They are the heart of the order and the "stars" ... it is on them.

Overall in the past 7 days ... rank 29th in wRC+ (62). Hopefully this is rock bottom since ... at least on paper ... the past shows this group has the skills to be above average.

Quote from WindsorUK on May 11, 2026, 10:46 am

Also read in the SDUT that the 61 hits they've produced over there last 10 games is the lowest number of base hits in that span of games since 1919!!!!

Our offense is historically terrible.

When you look at the makeup of the roster- one solid home grown player( Merrill), a couple of good trades ( Tatis and Laureano) and FA signings ( Machado and Bogaerts), the rest are bottom of the barrel FA signings or trade throw ins.( And aside from Bogaerts, the other 4 are horrible this year!)

Preller and his bunch need to do a MUCH better job of acquiring talent through the draft and international signings, and actually KEEP them.

Manny and FTJ will improve at some point this year, I just hope it's before the SP issue becomes a bigger problem.

Quote from ultratvfan on May 11, 2026, 1:09 pm

Rumors has it that the Padres are top contenders in a trade for Trout. This would be a really bad move. Trout will be 35 in August and has had health and injury issues. On top of that, I think the Padres OF is solid and should be left alone.