Quote from fenn68 on October 17, 2024, 7:19 pm

Quote from Jeremy Hill on October 17, 2024, 4:59 pm

Quote from fenn68 on October 17, 2024, 12:03 pm

Although Yoshida is a much better hitter than Cronenworth ... he is a terrible LF defensively. In 2023 he was ranked 18th out of 19 in MLB LF defensively (-18.6 dWAR with only Schwarber worse). In 2024 he was relegated to DH and just had surgery on his shoulder ... if ready for 2025 he is a DH.

Take out Cronenworth ... Kim departs ... Bogaerts goes to SS ... 2B is ? (Arraez) ... 1B is ?. Padres just don't need the extra offense at the expense of destroying the INF to load up on two DH (Arraez, Yoshida). I will (for 2025) stick with Cronenworth in the INF and to fill the offense / field just round up the usual suspects: Solano, Peralta, and similar.

Now if you want to move Arraez for Yoshida ...

Yoshida didn't really get much of a chance to prove he could play the outfield in the big leagues. They didn't give him consistent playing time in 2023 and he was buried behind an elite defensive group this year. Fenway is also not an easy ballpark for a left fielder making the transition from Japan to get there start in. I don't think he'll be a great defensive outfielder by any means. I do think with regular work he could be similar to Profar. By that I mean someone with somewhat limited range, but who makes all the routine plays and has a solid arm.

To be clear I would not make the trade straight up. Getting a useful secondary piece would be the key. Hamilton could be the stopgap SS we're looking for. He might steal 50 bags in a full season, has a solid glove and held his own against right handed pitching. He was also very good outside of Boston. Gonzalez can play all over the field and hit lefties very well this season. Working on what could be a tight budget AJ may have to come up with creative ways to stretch his funds. I think a 2 for 1 deal like that would be worth considering.

If you were doing Arraez for Yoshida I would think you would want a lot more added from the Sox. I don't really see that as a fit.

The real issue is why would Boston want Cronenworth when they have Story / Rafaela in the middle INF with as you say Hamilton backing him up and a top prospect Campbell already up to AAA and Vaughn Grissom who they traded for from ATL last year. INF is not their problem ... Yoshida as the DH (they have a good OF) adds much more incremental value than would Cronenworth to BOST.

Pretty sure BOST would not want Arraez either ... at least not over Yoshida. Yoshida is locked down for 3 more years at $18MM per year but does provide a lot more SLG / OBP than Arraez ... who only has one year control at about $15MM. Don't think BOST is looking to do a salary dump of Yoshida's contract but if they did ... not for an offsetting big contract.

I see no compelling reason (or Padre offer) that would get Yoshida over to SD.

Quote from BoosterSD on October 17, 2024, 8:34 pm

I wasnt all that excited about Yoshida, more of getting out of Bogaerts bad contract.

Anyway, although LF is similar to 1B in being a traditional bat 1st position, SD could really look at a cheaper glove/defense guy in LF. There is enough offense (as long as they dont all go cold at the same time again) for this team to keep making playoff runs.

So maybe a platoon in LF of Peralta for some bat, and then a late inning defensive replacement....maybe even Lockridge.

Then maybe SS falls onto an Ahmed or Newman. Or maybe Eguy Rosario can handle SS?

Quote from fenn68 on October 18, 2024, 3:33 am

Never know about future injuries but offensively the Padres appear to be in good shape for 2025 and can carry a low cost defensive first SS. On paper Ahmed seems to fit ... still very good defensive stats in 2024 and released by both LAD and SF should set him up as a cheap sign. Consider:

1. Kim only played in 121 games and very little in the last two months ... covered by McCoy, Wade, then Bogaerts with other player shuffles ... and the Padres had one of the best records in those last two months with the offense clicking. When playing had a 101 wRC+ ... not likely to match that with a defensive first SS but
2. Key members of the offense were missing due to injury:
   1. Tatis was in only 102 games (135 wRC+)
   2. Bogaerts was in only 111 games (95 wRC+) BUT when healthy in the last two months played 62 games (115 wRC+) ... plus a very positive dWAR and a 1.7 WAR (annualize to between 4-5)
   3. Arraez was in only 117 games with the Padres (111 wRC+) ... 118 wRC+ in the last two months
   4. Machado did play in 152 games BUT due to injury early had a slow start ... overall a 122 wRC+ but in the last two months rebounded to 142.
   5. Merrill did play in a 152 games and had a bit of a learning curve ... overall a 130 wRC+ but in the last two months that jumped to 159.
3. Bottom line that is 5 members of the offense who have the potential of playing full seasons and deliver more offense than they did in 2024 ... takes some pressure off focusing on adding offense.
4. IF they do not resign Profar (think they will) ... he was a key cog in 2024 ... played 158 games with a 139 wRC+ ... 126 in the last two months. Can the Padres cover his departure with the improvement in the others and a low cost decent LF add ... probably (if they can land such a player). I don't see that in any of internal options ... signing Peralta as part of a platoon might work.

I would work the fringe on filling the non-pitching needs (but would go the extra yard for Profar) ... and set SP as my focus. Darvish, Cease, and King then ????? then injuries.

Re-sign Profar ... have the others play a full season ... replace Kim with Ahmed (or similar) and the Padres offense would be pushing for being the best in the NL. RP is still solid. So, SP, SP, SP, SP .......

Quote from fenn68 on October 18, 2024, 4:07 am

Profar's re-signing will be all about the money ... and he does come with some risk of 2024 being a career year but looking at his 2024 as a LF he ranked 3rd in ML with a 4.3 WAR and 5th in wRC+ with a 139. Even a 10-20% retracement would still leave him above average. I do think his non-stats to the team is worth a lot ... just hard to quantify.

His weak link is defense where he sat 80th out of 89 most used LF. He does not make errors ... he actually has one of the best LF arms (his throwing is excellent) ... BUT his downfall is one of the worst range factors. Basically he makes all the plays he can get to ... just does not cover enough ground. Can question how important that is if in the end he was 3rd in LF WAR.

Never know how dominoes fall but IF the Padres land a decent LF (offensively/defensively) cheap ... MIGHT the Padres actually enhance Profar's WAR by shifting him to 1B (he was there before and looked fine as an ex INF). Bogaerts to SS, Croney to 2B, and Arraez kept off the field as the DH.

Might be a question of whether the Padres can find the defensive first SS or a LF (maybe more offense) for similar costs. Just guessing more options may come in the OF than at SS.

Quote from MrPadre19 on October 18, 2024, 7:41 am

My early guess is that David Peralta starts in LF on Opening Day for the Padres.

Joes injury could be the reason.

Can we afford Profar after a career year and do we need him more than a solid #3 SP?

We don't have much in the minor league system in the way of SP's that could help n '25...maybe not even in '26 for that matter.

Plus we have Cease/King to think about after '25.

I just think adding,or extending, a SP or two is where any "extra" payroll will go.

 

Quote from Jeremy Hill on October 18, 2024, 7:56 am

Quote from fenn68 on October 17, 2024, 7:19 pm

Quote from Jeremy Hill on October 17, 2024, 4:59 pm

Quote from fenn68 on October 17, 2024, 12:03 pm

Although Yoshida is a much better hitter than Cronenworth ... he is a terrible LF defensively. In 2023 he was ranked 18th out of 19 in MLB LF defensively (-18.6 dWAR with only Schwarber worse). In 2024 he was relegated to DH and just had surgery on his shoulder ... if ready for 2025 he is a DH.

Take out Cronenworth ... Kim departs ... Bogaerts goes to SS ... 2B is ? (Arraez) ... 1B is ?. Padres just don't need the extra offense at the expense of destroying the INF to load up on two DH (Arraez, Yoshida). I will (for 2025) stick with Cronenworth in the INF and to fill the offense / field just round up the usual suspects: Solano, Peralta, and similar.

Now if you want to move Arraez for Yoshida ...

Yoshida didn't really get much of a chance to prove he could play the outfield in the big leagues. They didn't give him consistent playing time in 2023 and he was buried behind an elite defensive group this year. Fenway is also not an easy ballpark for a left fielder making the transition from Japan to get there start in. I don't think he'll be a great defensive outfielder by any means. I do think with regular work he could be similar to Profar. By that I mean someone with somewhat limited range, but who makes all the routine plays and has a solid arm.

To be clear I would not make the trade straight up. Getting a useful secondary piece would be the key. Hamilton could be the stopgap SS we're looking for. He might steal 50 bags in a full season, has a solid glove and held his own against right handed pitching. He was also very good outside of Boston. Gonzalez can play all over the field and hit lefties very well this season. Working on what could be a tight budget AJ may have to come up with creative ways to stretch his funds. I think a 2 for 1 deal like that would be worth considering.

If you were doing Arraez for Yoshida I would think you would want a lot more added from the Sox. I don't really see that as a fit.

The real issue is why would Boston want Cronenworth when they have Story / Rafaela in the middle INF with as you say Hamilton backing him up and a top prospect Campbell already up to AAA and Vaughn Grissom who they traded for from ATL last year. INF is not their problem ... Yoshida as the DH (they have a good OF) adds much more incremental value than would Cronenworth to BOST.

Pretty sure BOST would not want Arraez either ... at least not over Yoshida. Yoshida is locked down for 3 more years at $18MM per year but does provide a lot more SLG / OBP than Arraez ... who only has one year control at about $15MM. Don't think BOST is looking to do a salary dump of Yoshida's contract but if they did ... not for an offsetting big contract.

I see no compelling reason (or Padre offer) that would get Yoshida over to SD.

Yoshida has expressed frustration over them not letting him play the field more. There was also a difference of opinion over the diagnosis and treatment plan for a thumb injury. Breslow and Cora have also made it clear they prefer to have the flexibility to rotate guys through at DH. I think both parties would welcome a change of scenery.

Rafaela played more CF than SS. He's elite defensively in CF. He was pretty bad at SS. He played SS out of necessity. CF is where he belongs and where he'll play if Story is healthy. With Duran, Abreu and Refsnyder in the corners there's not going to be much room for Yoshida to see the field. There's also some talk that Campbell is more likely to end up in the OF and Roman Anthony should be in the mix soon too.

Grissom was awful for them when he was healthy this year. Cronenworth makes Hamilton expendable to come over in the trade and would immediately become their primary guy at 2B. If and when Mayer and Campbell are ready he can rotate around the IF to keep guys fresh and let poor fielders like Casas and Devers spend more time at DH. He would also provide some insurance against another Story injury. He fits their roster and philosophy better than Yoshida. Yoshida is a part time DH for them. Cronenworth brings more to the table while saving them a significant amount of money during the overlapping years.

Quote from fenn68 on October 18, 2024, 8:17 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on October 18, 2024, 7:41 am

My early guess is that David Peralta starts in LF on Opening Day for the Padres.

Joes injury could be the reason.

Can we afford Profar after a career year and do we need him more than a solid #3 SP?

We don't have much in the minor league system in the way of SP's that could help n '25...maybe not even in '26 for that matter.

Plus we have Cease/King to think about after '25.

I just think adding,or extending, a SP or two is where any "extra" payroll will go.

 

Decent chance we see Peralta in LF ... but at his age Padres will need to also get a platoon partner of ML quality ... I don't have any faith that Lockridge, Johnson, Ornelas, or Wade can be a legit LF on a contender.

I would guess that Preller has multiple scenarios that shift when players start getting signed (either by SD or targets that go with other teams) ... or just have his targets' demands just way out of range. Think we be watching a winter of shifting priorities based on player availability to the Padres.

If they could sign Sasaki ... that alone changes priorities as he take a SP slot with Darvish, Cease, and King at a league minimum cost ... money on the table for a potentially bigger sign of another SP or a new offensive piece. With Musgrove back in 2026 with Darvish and if they have Sasaki ... expect they hold money to make a max push to re-sign King then wing it for the #5 SP. Cease (with Boras as his agent) will just price himself out of SD market. So, maybe another SP is more a one year #5 type.

Following that flow, if Profar is in the 3 year / $30MM range ($10MM AAV) benefits 2026-27 with no clear prospects for the OF on the horizon (so going to cost to replace him near his level) ... so pushing to sign Profar might create some more roster / payroll flexibility for the next three years. Plus from a different view based on roster flexibility and maximizing benefit / cost relationship assuming Kim is gone Bogaerts can play SS/2B, Cronenworth (2B/1B), Profar (LF/1B) ... and keep Arraez at DH:

1. sign a SS: Bogaerts (2B), Cronenworth (1B), Profar (LF)
2. sign a 2B: Bogaerts (SS), Cronenworth (1B), Profar (LF)
3. sign a 1B: Bogaerts (SS), Cronenworth (2B), Profar (LF)
4. sign a LF: Bogaerts (SS), Cronenworth (2B), Profar (1B)

So, given the flexibility over those three players ... Preller has the freedom to sort through the best player / lowest cost option be it a SS or a 2B or a 1B or LF as his add. That would be a big advantage for Preller in negotiation with FA or making a trade ... can't pigeon hole him. Actually that would be somewhat consistent with Preller collection of every SS available ... he can deploy them anywhere not just SS ... so maybe look at adds that have positional flexibility keeping in mind the bench and the minors are currently short of ML quality players that could step in on a contender in 2025-6.

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on October 18, 2024, 10:13 am

How about Andrew McCutchen for a RH platoon partner in LF?

Grichuk?

Edt:McCutchen actually hit better against RH pitching so......?

Quote from Randy Manese on October 18, 2024, 10:29 am

What can we expect from Jackson Merrill in 2025 - increased production or a sophomore slump?  If you look at his hit spray chart, he really used the whole field both for average and power.  What can he improve on offensively?  Padres undoubtedly are happy with his 23.9/35.9/40.3 LD/GB/FB but would like to see him increase his barrel and hard hit rates to closer to what Tatis does (around 15+%/50+%) because he has better bat to ball skills than Taty; this will likely come with getting a little bit stronger as he matures.  They probably would like to see him increase his OBP to somewhere around the 350 mark, which would come with drawing more walks (only 4.9% in 2024).  This is one of the problems with great bat to ball skills guys is they think they can hit everything and that takes down their OBP, however, Merrill does not chase often so he negates that to some degree (unlike CJ Abrams).  Merrill improved against LHP during the last 2 months of the season, so that should not be a concern.  What I'd like to see him do is steal more bases and while he does not have exceptional speed, he should be able to easily get 25-30 in a season; he is an exceptional base runner when underway.  Merrill mostly hit in the 6 hole, but his best spot in 2024 was the #5 slot behind Machado, where he had both his highest OBP and SA.   No slump just a terrific work ethic that will see him get better and better.

On defense, Baseball Savant knocked him down for his route taking (1.1% below average) and ranked him low on coming in on balls.  They rated him slightly above average in getting a jump on a batted ball. Since this was Merrill's first year in CF, I think all of these will be improved in 2025 and he was getting better at both as the 2024 season wore on.  Merrill goes back on balls very well so he might be able to play a little shallower in CF in 2025 and his improved route taking will probably mean less diving catches, spectacular as they are.  His arm was rated as solid, so maybe just sharpening up hitting the cut-off man could make him the total package (GG) n CF.

With likely a very challenging budget, don't think Padres can afford to extend Merrill in 2025 but that would be at the top of the list of things to do for the 2026 season.  Merrill does not seem to be a guy who is worried about the money; he knows he'll get paid and San Diego seems like where he wants to be - hopefully, it will be a very good match for the Padres and us fans for many years to come.