Quote from Randy Manese on October 16, 2024, 3:03 pm

A lot to talk about as we head into the 2025 season and we'll get more clarity when the November 40 man rosters are set and the owners set the spending limits under which Preller must construct a team.  We do know some facts that will not change and these will undoubtedly be the parameters for 2025.

1. The first threshold for the 2025 CBT is 241M, with 20M added on for the next consecutive levels, i.e.,  up to 261, 281 and 301.  This is only 4M more than the first level of the 2024 CBT.
2. To be included in that 241M is 17,240,000 which is the final salary payment due Hosmer; 17,500,00 which is the league amount for player benefits; and 1,667,000 for league amount for 0-3 year player bonuses.  You could also include the 20M for Musgrove's 2025 salary here since he is unlikely to pitch this year so this is likewise "dead money".
3. Preller will want a 5-7M buffer for possible trades/late player additions(or even salary incentives) at the trade deadline if the Padres look like they will compete for the playoffs in 2025.
4. Given the above, we already have from 61,407,000 to 63,407,000 deducted from the potential 2025 payroll before even subtracting CBT impact for committed salaries in 2025 (Bogaerts, Darvish, Machado, Tatis, Cronenworth, Suarez, Matsui and probably W. Peralta).  We are at approximately 177,593,000 without the salaries
5. From the the 177,593,000M CBT number, we subtract 129,913,000 for the 8 aforementioned committed salaries plus 760,000 as the league minimum for Merrill.  This leaves around 46,920,000 to divvy up between arbitration eligibles, free agents and other internal salary adjustments.  Not a lot for a potential playoff team.

Quote from MrPadre19 on October 17, 2024, 7:21 am

We knew about the Hosmer thing but the Musgrove issue really hurts.

$25 mil to someone who now won't pitch and needs to be replaced when we already were up against the CBT going in to '25.

Will be very interesting to see how much ownership,after Peter,is willing to spend to win next season.

Everyone knows 2025 is our best chance to win considering the expiring contracts of Cease,Arraez,King etc..

It won't help that the dodgers will be getting Ohtani,Glasnow and May back in their rotation without spending another dollar.

 

Quote from fenn68 on October 17, 2024, 8:08 am

Preller has to look both 2025 and a strategy beyond 2025 when approaching adds (or deletes).

On one hand they don't really have much trade collateral to secure any player of high value / long control ... that does cut off one improvement route.

On the other hand, after 2025 Cease, Arraez, King, Suarez (likely to opt out), and Hosmer opening a lot of payroll space (in theory) in 2026 and that could open a someone long term expensive FA sighing UNLESS they are targeting extending any of those FA to be and / or making a long term (big AAV) extension with Merrill.

On the third hand, Preller could focus on one year FA (likely veteran marginal players) or trading for costly decent players with one year control using second tier prospects (other team trying to drop payroll and get at least something). Probably the most likely approach. Avoids any more long term commitments and retains max payroll flexibility  in 2026 to reshape the roster based on FA at that time.

On the fourth hand, Preller is creative and maybe to "balance" a total roster he may choose to trade an Arraez to both clear some payroll (for a more needed FA signing) and a useful support piece (maybe C, maybe OF, maybe #4-5 SP). Can he deploy Arraez' $14.6 arb est more productively and long with a useful piece in return? Would he consider trading Suarez (who will opt out after 2025) ... saves $9MM plus as a top closer should yield a decent return piece. Can Preller pull a new closer out of the woodwork?

If they sign Sasaki (league minimum for the next three years) and the international bonus pool is likely fully budgeted, so not a incremental issue, can change priorities ... especially SP.

With Tatis, Merrill, Machado, Bogaerts, Cronenwoth securing the offense and Darvish, King, Cease securing the SP ... that is a core that should keep the Padres in the playoff race with only "minor" adds ... and don't forget the team Preller assembles on Opening Day is likely to be "enhance" during the season and at the trade deadline ... at a lower cost than making the adds this winter.

Should be a fun ride.

Quote from Jeremy Hill on October 17, 2024, 10:20 am

We could potentially be getting 15m to make up for lost TV revenue from the new CBA agreement earlier this year. Even with the loss of a home game to the Korean series attendance was up 60,000 thanks to the park in the park expansion. It should increase a little bit more after the season we had. Sheel Seidler also seems like she's opening herself up to the fanbase more. She seems to be dedicated to carrying on Peter's legacy. Just some reasons I think there could be a bit more wiggle room than we think from a payroll standpoint. AJ is certainly going to have his hands full though.

Quote from Jeremy Hill on October 17, 2024, 11:16 am

Quote from BoosterSD on October 16, 2024, 12:34 pm

Its known on this website that I am not a big fan of the Bogaerts contract, thinks its worse than the Crone extension. So question, would you make the following trade?

BOS gets Bogaerts back and SD gets Masataka Yoshida? BOS OF is getting crowded according to a MLBTR blog I just read.

SD gets a LHH LFer or DH, BOS gets hometown player back, and SD saves about $7.45M in CBT room.

SD might have to add some money and/or a prospect or two.

I threw out the idea of a Cronenworth for Yoshida trade before the year. If AJ and company thought Yoshida could handle LF and Profar's market goes beyond their comfort level I still think it could make sense. I would offer up something like Cronenworth for Yoshida and David Hamilton or Romy Gonzalez.

I don't see a match with Bogaerts. There's a big difference between the 3/54 owed to Yoshida and the 6/73 owed to Cronenworth in comparison to the 9/230 owed to Bogaerts. The Sox already have one middle infielder on a bad contract in Trevor Story. They also have 2 top 10 overall prospects in Marcelo Mayer and Kristian Campbell who could be in the infield mix next season. They aren't going to want to block them with someone on such a massive contract even if it is a fan favorite like Bogaerts.

Quote from fenn68 on October 17, 2024, 11:34 am

Quote from Jeremy Hill on October 17, 2024, 11:16 am

Quote from BoosterSD on October 16, 2024, 12:34 pm

Its known on this website that I am not a big fan of the Bogaerts contract, thinks its worse than the Crone extension. So question, would you make the following trade?

BOS gets Bogaerts back and SD gets Masataka Yoshida? BOS OF is getting crowded according to a MLBTR blog I just read.

SD gets a LHH LFer or DH, BOS gets hometown player back, and SD saves about $7.45M in CBT room.

SD might have to add some money and/or a prospect or two.

I threw out the idea of a Cronenworth for Yoshida trade before the year. If AJ and company thought Yoshida could handle LF and Profar's market goes beyond their comfort level I still think it could make sense. I would offer up something like Cronenworth for Yoshida and David Hamilton or Romy Gonzalez.

I don't see a match with Bogaerts. There's a big difference between the 3/54 owed to Yoshida and the 6/73 owed to Cronenworth in comparison to the 9/230 owed to Bogaerts. The Sox already have one middle infielder on a bad contract in Trevor Story. They also have 2 top 10 overall prospects in Marcelo Mayer and Kristian Campbell who could be in the infield mix next season. They aren't going to want to block them with someone on such a massive contract even if it is a fan favorite like Bogaerts.

Remember when Bogaerts hit FA Boston made little attempt to resign ... offer nowhere near the contract he got. Now after two years ... injury plagued / lackluster ... no chance the want any part of him. Need to bury any thoughts about dumping Bogaerts back to Boston (or realistically anyone) with that contact. Time to move on.

Quote from fenn68 on October 17, 2024, 12:03 pm

Although Yoshida is a much better hitter than Cronenworth ... he is a terrible LF defensively. In 2023 he was ranked 18th out of 19 in MLB LF defensively (-18.6 dWAR with only Schwarber worse). In 2024 he was relegated to DH and just had surgery on his shoulder ... if ready for 2025 he is a DH.

Take out Cronenworth ... Kim departs ... Bogaerts goes to SS ... 2B is ? (Arraez) ... 1B is ?. Padres just don't need the extra offense at the expense of destroying the INF to load up on two DH (Arraez, Yoshida). I will (for 2025) stick with Cronenworth in the INF and to fill the offense / field just round up the usual suspects: Solano, Peralta, and similar.

Now if you want to move Arraez for Yoshida ...

Quote from ultratvfan on October 17, 2024, 2:25 pm

Guaranteed Contracts

• Manny Machado, 3B: $314MM through 2033 (including $35MM in remaining signing bonus payments)
• Fernando Tatis Jr., RF: $306MM through 2034
• Xander Bogaerts, 2B: $225MM through 2033
• Jake Cronenworth, 1B: $71MM through 2030
• Yu Darvish, RHP: $63MM through 2028
• Joe Musgrove, RHP: $60MM through 2027
• Robert Suarez, RHP: $26MM through 2027 (can opt out after '25)
• Yuki Matsui, LHP: $24.75MM through 2028 (can opt out after '26 barring intervening Tommy John surgery)
• Wandy Peralta, LHP: $13.15MM through 2027 (can opt out after '24, '25 and '26)

Quote from fenn68 on October 17, 2024, 2:44 pm

Quote from ultratvfan on October 17, 2024, 2:25 pm

Guaranteed Contracts

• Manny Machado, 3B: $314MM through 2033 (including $35MM in remaining signing bonus payments)
• Fernando Tatis Jr., RF: $306MM through 2034
• Xander Bogaerts, 2B: $225MM through 2033
• Jake Cronenworth, 1B: $71MM through 2030
• Yu Darvish, RHP: $63MM through 2028
• Joe Musgrove, RHP: $60MM through 2027
• Robert Suarez, RHP: $26MM through 2027 (can opt out after '25)
• Yuki Matsui, LHP: $24.75MM through 2028 (can opt out after '26 barring intervening Tommy John surgery)
• Wandy Peralta, LHP: $13.15MM through 2027 (can opt out after '24, '25 and '26)

and a lot of no trade clauses in the biggest contracts (not that teams would take those contacts while giving any talent in return).

Suarez, Matsui, and Peralta could be interesting cases on the opt outs (or trade chips).

Suarez is a clear opt out after 2025 when his $10MM salary drops to $8MM in each of the next two years. He will be 34 and probably a last chance for a longer, larger deal ... especially after seeing what the likes of Scott gets this winter.

Peralta might just opt out this winter. Nothing great in 2024 and can opt out again and again but at 33 and making "only" $4.3MM next year could see his agent try to sell his previous work ... get a bigger deal (probably not worse deal).

Matsui is also interesting considering he really did have a decent 2nd half of the season (maybe not what we expected but still decent in the concept of poor ML RP) and "only" a $5.5MM contract. A truly needy team wanting RP may find him a decent add and Padres could use him as a trade chip.

Three RP ... Preller seems to find them at low cost with upside ... so their early exits may not hurt the Padres (saves some money).