Forum
Forum Navigation
2025 Padres Season
#71 · October 18, 2024, 12:00 pm
Quote from MrPadre19 on October 18, 2024, 7:41 amMy early guess is that David Peralta starts in LF on Opening Day for the Padres.
Joes injury could be the reason.
Can we afford Profar after a career year and do we need him more than a solid #3 SP?
We don't have much in the minor league system in the way of SP's that could help n '25...maybe not even in '26 for that matter.
Plus we have Cease/King to think about after '25.
I just think adding,or extending, a SP or two is where any "extra" payroll will go.
With Musgrove out I think finding at least 1 starter is the top priority. King, Darvish, Cease is a strong top 3. Beyond that it's a lot more questionable. I don't think they can really rely on the likes of Vasquez, Waldron and Brito. The strength and depth of the bullpen could allow someone like Morejon or Hoeing to transition back to starting. Maybe they feel ok about being able to cover 1 spot internally. I think they'll have to bring in at least 1 starter. 2 would be ideal.
After that I think LF and C are about the same level of priority. I would love to have Profar back. He might have to leave something on the table and/or take a deal that gives the team some protections to return. I think he could reasonably command a similar deal to the 3/42m that AZ gave Lourdes Gurriel. I would be hesitant to commit that much to Profar straight up. If I was AJ I would offer him something like 3/24 with incentives to push it higher. Maybe add an opt out or buyout after next year. I would want to see a deal that gives the team some protection against regression.
I would like to see Higgy back too, but again he might have to leave a little on the table. Gary Sanchez got what was effectively 1/7m coming off a similar season. Higgy is arguably the top C on the market. That could drive his price up. If it gets to high maybe you just bring Diaz back on a cheaper deal and hope for better from Campy.
SS is less of a priority. They could just roll with Bogaerts at SS, Cronenworth at 2B and Arraez at 1B. If they could find a cheap platoon partner for Cronenworth that might not be so bad. I think there's a chance they could bring Kim back if his market doesn't develop as hoped. With Boras as his agent I think it's clear he'll be looking for a big long term deal though. If they want to look for a cheap stopgap the market isn't great. They didn't believe in Ahmed enough to give him a single meaningful inning or AB. Kevin Newman might be the best of a weak group.
In an off-season where money could be tight I think they could look to trade one of Arraez or Cronenworth. Arraez could also possibly be extended and have his AAV drop. MLBTR is projecting him to get 14.6m in arbitration. I think he would probably take a little bit less on a multi-year deal. They could also try to get someone to take Peralta in a deal like they did with Carpenter last year. With the whole bullpen minus Scott coming back and guys like Reynolds, Pena, Rodriguez, Cosgrove and others potentially ready to get in the mix maybe they would consider moving Suarez. The bullpen looks like the one area they might be able to subtract from to facilitate moves.
#72 · October 18, 2024, 1:45 pm
Hard to guess the future of Arraez ... but do expect him to test the FA market after 2025. As I recall, he took MIA to arbitration (and lost) wanting more than the $10MM. He is projected to get $14.6MM. Not sure he (and his agent) will take a lot less to get a long term contract now. Test the market. They have to believe he will get offers ... probably no worse than a low ball from Preller while making the $14.6MM in 2025.
On the other side, the Padres are saying the right things about liking Arraez' hitting skills and would like to keep him. However, like him and paying him at what he wants is different. At what price does Preller value Arraez ... at what price does Arraez value Arraez. My guess too far apart now and a test of FA market will set reality.
I just don't know how to value (and pay) Arraez as he fits into this roster with payroll limits. Internal conflict since I really appreciate his bat to ball skills but also recognize he is a one trick pony with little other value. For me $14.6MM is too much ... if you consider probably could re-sign Profar, Higashioka, Solano for that amount and get a longer , deeper line-up with money still on the table for more upgrades.
To that end, might consider trading him this winter and if not, QO after the season and let him walk. Becoming a 1 year rental will not yield a big return but should allow some teams to bid (and take the contract).
#73 · October 18, 2024, 3:16 pm
Quote from fenn68 on October 18, 2024, 1:45 pmHard to guess the future of Arraez ... but do expect him to test the FA market after 2025. As I recall, he took MIA to arbitration (and lost) wanting more than the $10MM. He is projected to get $14.6MM. Not sure he (and his agent) will take a lot less to get a long term contract now. Test the market. They have to believe he will get offers ... probably no worse than a low ball from Preller while making the $14.6MM in 2025.
On the other side, the Padres are saying the right things about liking Arraez' hitting skills and would like to keep him. However, like him and paying him at what he wants is different. At what price does Preller value Arraez ... at what price does Arraez value Arraez. My guess too far apart now and a test of FA market will set reality.
I just don't know how to value (and pay) Arraez as he fits into this roster with payroll limits. Internal conflict since I really appreciate his bat to ball skills but also recognize he is a one trick pony with little other value. For me $14.6MM is too much ... if you consider probably could re-sign Profar, Higashioka, Solano for that amount and get a longer , deeper line-up with money still on the table for more upgrades.
To that end, might consider trading him this winter and if not, QO after the season and let him walk. Becoming a 1 year rental will not yield a big return but should allow some teams to bid (and take the contract).
Arraez seems like he genuinely wants to stay put and would be open to an extension. He said as much unprompted while answering a question about his thumb. It seemed more like a genuine plea than the standard player response. It's also worth noting that he's repped by the same agent as Manny, Tatis and Profar. It is hard to know how to value him. I would offer him something like 4/50m.
#74 · October 18, 2024, 5:35 pm
Let's not forget we also have Martín Pérez, who is a free agent and should have started instead of Cease in game 4. He has been a solid 5th starter for the most part since he joined the Padres especially at Petco.
In 10 games as a Padres, he has a 3.46 ERA, 44K, 9 HR, 17 BB and .235 BAA. He has given up more than 3 runs only twice-- 3 runs in Tampa Bay and 6 runs in Phoenix.
In 6 games at Petco, he has a 2.01 ERA, 29K, 4 HR, 9 BB, and .222 BAA.
He said the Niebla helped him make changes and be a better pitcher. The Padres need a pitcher that pitches well at Petco and he has been a whole lot better the Waldron and Vasquez.
IMO, He should be kept and re-signed. We only need a top pitcher to replace Musgrove. Two possibilities is a trade for Tarika Skubal or sign FA Corbin Burnes, who will be too expensive.
#75 · October 19, 2024, 10:52 am
Did you know that Campusano was the primary catcher for Dylan Cease in 2024, catching all but 39.1 innings in the regular season. Cease's record during those 160 IP was 11-9 with a 3.26 ERA. When Campy was sent down, Elias Diaz caught 3 of his games (19.1 innings and got Cease 2 wins with an ERA of 1.40! What about Higgy? Higgy caught 4 regular season games and both games in the post season. In the 4 regular season games with Higgy (20 IP), Cease was 1-2 with an ERA of 5.40; it the 2 post season games, Cease was 0-2 (5 IP) with a 14.40 ERA!
Not saying Campusano made Cease better but strange as to how some pitchers/catchers seem to work together better than others and thus get better results. Can't afford FA Diaz, so I say give Campy another chance behind the dish - he's going to be a part-time low cost alternative in arbitration and may not even get 1M in salary in his first of 4 years of arbitration (he was at 754,700 last year); at least Cease seems to like throwing to him having caught his no-hitter!
#76 · October 19, 2024, 11:07 am
Quote from Randy Manese on October 19, 2024, 10:52 amDid you know that Campusano was the primary catcher for Dylan Cease in 2024, catching all but 39.1 innings in the regular season. Cease's record during those 160 IP was 11-9 with a 3.26 ERA. When Campy was sent down, Elias Diaz caught 3 of his games (19.1 innings and got Cease 2 wins with an ERA of 1.40! What about Higgy? Higgy caught 4 regular season games and both games in the post season. In the 4 regular season games with Higgy, Cease was 1-2 with an ERA of 5.40; it the 2 post season games, Cease was 0-2 with a 14.40 ERA!
Not saying Campusano made Cease better but strange as to how some pitchers/catchers seem to work together better than others and thus get better results. Can't afford FA Diaz, so I say give Campy another chance behind the dish - he's going to be a part-time low cost alternative in arbitration and may not even get 1M in salary in his first of 4 years of arbitration (he was at 754,700 last year); at least Cease seems to like throwing to him having caught his no-hitter!
Probably a safe bet that Campusano is back in 2025 … Diaz will get a decent contract (money) probably as a starter somewhere.
Although I do expect Higashioka to re-sign (at a manageable one year deal) … could see the catching split more to 50/50. Higashioka at 35 may not be suited to catch more at this point and the Padres need to get a real read on Campy early in the season.
Salas should be in the mix in 2026 and if he is all he is projected to be … he will take #1 … so not sure what happens to Campy then.
lafnboy13 and Randy Manese have reacted to this post.
lafnboy13Randy Manese
#77 · October 21, 2024, 5:04 am
Signing Sasaki could be the key to 2025 with Musgrove out
Pitching wise and payroll wise.....
#78 · October 21, 2024, 1:38 pm
Listened to part of Preller's press conference today ... as expected nothing reveled at this point.
Essentially he said at this point he and the front office are working on potential options, strategies, player evaluations, etc ... in the context of 1, 3, and 5 year plans. Not yet into any player negotiations but just having "general discussions" with agents about their thinking ... any negotiations may commence around Nov 4 (with the opening of FA).
Asked about being aggressive with the development of prospects ... he basically it depends on the player and how the Padres view their readiness for moving up quickly. So, he said Tatis, Merrill, Paddock looked the part of an aggressive promotion ... others may not be as ready and will move slower. So, that suggest we may see some aggressive (Salas, DeVries) but that may be the exception not the rule.
#79 · October 21, 2024, 6:51 pm
I want AJP to do whatever it takes to get him. I don't want the Dodgers to get him or even the Phillies who are among the teams also interest him him. I am tired of the rich Dodgers taking all the top players. Of course, the Chibe Lotte Marines will need to let him go.
#80 · October 21, 2024, 7:46 pm
Your questions will be answered on or before 15 January 2025 and the answers will be crucial to how the Padres go about constructing a playoff team for 2025.
In the meantime, here are some dates to be aware of:
O/A Nov 4 (immediately after the world series): We will know whether Kim and/or Wandy Peralta have exercised their options. If no and yes, respectively, then both join other Padres Free Agents - Profar, Scott, Higashioka, Solano, D Peralta, Perez, Ahmed, E Diaz
14 Nov: Last day to set 40 man roster prior to 11 Dec Rule 5 draft held during the winter league meetings. AAA roster also set for minor league phase of draft.
17 Nov: Non-tender deadline (might be somewhat anti-climatic since Tyler Wade and Luis Patino likely won't be on the 40 man and become FA vice not offered arbitration)
15 Jan: International signing period opens
Mid-Jan: Arbitration salaries exchanged. AJ typically settles all arb cases without going to hearing, announcing on the last possible day
Late Jan-early Feb: Arbitration hearings begin