Quote from WindsorUK on July 18, 2025, 3:25 am

I'd really rather not see any prospects( currently in our system) shipped out for a short term rental.

It is painfully obvious all such past deals haven't really worked( I think it was Mr. P who asked when the last time AJ traded a major league player for a prospect? That would be Sheets for Tatis, which worked out pretty well). I could litter the board with all the names of prospects sent out but you guys already know them all.

WE NEED TO BUILD A LONG TERM CONTENDER FROM WITHIN! Even the Duds have controllable home grown( read: affordable) talent( May, Smith, Pages, Rusching,etc). We have Merrill, Morejon,....am I missing anyone?

Trade guys you know are not going to be here next year- Cease, Suarez, Arraez- otherwise they're just a loss in the asset column. Trade a guy while he still has value. Who knows, maybe they can bring back enough lower minor league talent, to pool together, to then bring in someone who can help this year- a league average bat, a league average catcher, a steady major league arm.

Trading Baez, Bergert, De Vries, Salas couldn't possibly bring in enough talent this year to make a difference( we traded out A LOT more talent last year and that didn't get us anywhere either).

Keep your appreciable assets, move your disposable ones.

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 18, 2025, 6:38 am

Looking at it from the other way AJ has traded probably 75 prospects since 2019 and there are only about 4-5 guys we wish we hadn't traded.

Munoz,Gore,Abrams,Wood...that's about it.There are a few others doing Ok,but not good enough to lament trading.

The deals for Musgrove,Darvish,Hader,Arraez,Cronenworth,Cease(so far),Adam were all huge steals.

I want to keep prospects as well.....BUT,When you have two "glaring" holes on a team that is already a playoff team...and a wide open window with a few aging veterans....you can't just punt on the season.

The difference between a minor upgrade in LF & C and a big upgrade at those positions could be the difference in just making the Playoffs....and making the World Series.

Hopefully AJ "goes for it" but does without trading Leo,Kash,Boston,and Cruz.

I'd actually be OK trading Salas "IF" the return matches his value when healthy....not his value right now.

Also,trading decent prospects would bring back guys controllable beyond this year.Because LF and C aren't fixing themselves in '26 & '27

If you're looking to trade Cease/Arraez/Suarez for prospects....you're telling the team and the fans that you're giving up on 2025.

Ain't gonna happen.

He may trade Cease or Suarez for guys who can play "right now" and make us better...but not guys who won't be in SD for a couple years.

 

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 18, 2025, 6:52 am

The next two weeks are always very fun to watch.

They will clarify who are sellers and who are buyers.

Some are obvious....but there are a lot of teams on the bubble who don't yet know which way they're going to go.

 

Quote from fenn68 on July 18, 2025, 7:21 am

I would guess Salas is not on the board as a trade chip. As a healthy prospect has value but as a catcher with a back issue that has kept him on the IL for months ... not so much ... so for the Padres they are better off seeing if he can return as a legit prospect than take the low current return that likely would not help in 2025. (Side: anyone heard any current updates on Salas ... or his expected return date?)

Also, don't see any blockbuster deal (like Soto's) that could pry DeVries who the Padres seem to put super-star upside projection.

Everyone else maybe but who is a function of the return piece. Since I have not figured out any available MAJOR long term upgrade who may be on the market (and that who it would take pry away the top prospects) ... I can see the prospects in play may be more in the Lowe, Lizzaraga, Pena range for "rentals" and not Mayfield, Bateman, Baez range.

Keeping in focus making the playoffs (with a chance of going deep) in 2025 is the prize but without losing focus on the objective to continue to contend going forward, hard to see trading any of the FA to be since none would yield return that makes (net) the Padres better in 2025. Probably keep them ... make QO ...  take the Comp Pick ... worry about 2026 over the winter.

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 18, 2025, 10:30 am

Yeah I don't expect a superstar trade....but I do think he'll try for someone with at least control through 2026....as just an example a guy "like" Taylor Ward who at least is controlled through next season.

Or,if AJ already has a plan of letting most of the free agents go to save money and to address left field....that might be different.He may then just go for a rental.

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on July 18, 2025, 11:22 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 18, 2025, 10:30 am

Yeah I don't expect a superstar trade....but I do think he'll try for someone with at least control through 2026....as just an example a guy "like" Taylor Ward who at least is controlled through next season.

Or,if AJ already has a plan of letting most of the free agents go to save money and to address left field....that might be different.He may then just go for a rental.

 

 

Ward is a possibility in my mind now that LAA is fading out of the race. Would not be cheap in terms of a prospect(s) but he would (should) be a solid plus for 2025-26. I do like him. That assumes the Angels are willing to deal.

One thing to consider is if the LAA drags its feet (other teams may be interested) ... Preller may shift over to an option he can land and get in sooner (giving some certainty). Since all the apparent targets are not super stars ... maybe the one he can get now becomes better for the 2025 race than risking not landing someone later on (even if that is a thought to be a better player). For now the options are all still in play ... but as some start getting dealt, maybe a move is forced.

I could see two offensive adds ... one clearly as the 9th bat and one on the bench to sub/platoon/PH. So maybe one early add and one later ... although not that long to the deadline. Easy to think Brooks and either Johnson or Wade dropped (depends on the defensive side of who is added).

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 18, 2025, 11:40 am

I'd be OK with Ward but he was just an example of a player that could help us this year and next....cause we don't have a LF or C ready to step in next year either.

So if we go with a rental we will have to still make a trade or spend money we don't have in the offseason to fill those holes.

 

Quote from fenn68 on July 18, 2025, 12:05 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 18, 2025, 11:40 am

I'd be OK with Ward but he was just an example of a player that could help us this year and next....cause we don't have a LF or C ready to step in next year either.

So if we go with a rental we will have to still make a trade or spend money we don't have in the offseason to fill those holes.

 

Yeh, that is the mix and match debate. IF they let Cease, King, Suarez, Hart, Arraez, Diaz, Iglesias ... with Hosmer pay ending ... they should have a starting point for adds that gives them "some" CASH wiggle room ... not going with any big money adds but with a distribution that fills out the roster with at least competence.

Keep in mind that the remaining core (Tatis, Machado, Merrill, Cronenworth, Bogaerts, Sheets) is a plus and SP of Musgrove, Pivetta, Darvish, Vasaquez, Bergert (and Kolek, Baez, Nett, Waldron) is still a decent group potentially.

So, 2026 "minor" trades and mid-range FA signings could build a contender with a more limited payroll. But agree if Preller can land a two year player to fill a hole ... so much the better.

Quote from fenn68 on July 18, 2025, 12:34 pm

Making moves to win now is job #1 ... can't just ignore 2026 ... took a look at the issue of players that potentially will not return:

Cease ... with Boras as his agent he will go FA and clubs seem to still like his potential ... would not expect the Padres to pay what Boras could negotiate with others. Consider him gone.

Suarez ... he will opt out as his pay will drop from $10MM this year to $8MM next. Easily gets more as a FA and over more years. Padres have alternatives and will not chase him. Consider him gone.

Arraez ... currently at $14MM which in my mind is too much for a singles hitting 1B who struggles at PETCO and nets maybe a 1 WAR player. Padres like him but Padres liked Profar and let him go ... expect Arraez moves on to a team / ballpark where he can resume his plus hitting. Probably a 90% odds of him being gone.

King ... he is the hardest of the big names ... think both sides would love a deal but King will have to show he is 100% recovered from injury ... if he is, he is the one they could re-sign and that may be in the form of a back loaded deal (5 years?) to preserve 2026 cash. If they do that early it opens up Preller using some SP as trade chips for position players.

Iglesias ... aging at $3MM likely gone as was Solano before this year.

Maldonado ... FA and said he is retiring

Diaz ... not as clear as it would seem. Mutual option at $7MM vs a $2MM buyout so a net cost of $5MM in 2026 ... Does Diaz think (at his age / performance) think he can do better than $5MM? With Maldonado out of the picture and no clear C in the mix, do the Padres think they can find TWO catchers without spending $5MM? This may just be the rare acceptance of a mutual option.

Hart ... on a club option at $5MM vs a $500K buyout ... so is it worth it to the Padres to spend a net $4.5MM to retain a older pitcher who has ended up a AAA player in 2025? Do they have better options?

Peralta ... player option at $4.450MM (and again after 2026) ... sort of the same as Diaz ... at his age / performance can he do better? Guessing not and he stays.

Wade ... club option at a barely above league minimum ... so $1MM with a $50K buyout net $950K. Toss-up at that price and no clear alternatives yet. However, since he is out of options he becomes a make the 26 man or DFA ... and that would be a wasted cost.

Then consider the "out of options" for 2026 taking up space on the 40 man:

Johnson; Campusano; Waldron; Reynolds; Marinaccio either they will be gone as the season starts or the occupy a 26 slot bumping someone else.

All that MIGHT shape part of Preller's deal making in who he will put into trades and the nature of some of the return parts.