Quote from fenn68 on October 14, 2024, 1:46 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on October 14, 2024, 12:36 pm

Best case scenario Kims' injury/down season prompts him to accept the mutual option for one year and stays in SD for one more season to rebuild his value.

SD does this to keep him and to give DeVries one more year to progress.

Kim does it to get a much better 3-4 year deal after '25.

Not likely with Boras....but considering his desire to stay and the other factors I'm guessing there is a 20-30% chance it could happen.

 

That could be a a decent strategy on Boras' side ... $7MM in hand and a FA after 2025.

Not sure the Padres ... given the payroll limits ... want to commit $7MM to a player who may not be ready for Apr/May and may not be back to his defensive prowess at SS well into 2025 (if at all) only to let him walk after 2025. Padres decline the option unless the "know" he will fully recover ... but then so does Boras and they decline.

Maybe there is a mid-zone for both sides where Kim's 2025 contract is voided and a new deal is put in place with a low 2025 coupled with a player option for 2026 at a much higher salary (or a series of player options). The low 2025 goes into the CBT (and cash draw) benefiting the Padres in the short run. Padres risks sit on Kim's full recovery ... if he does not he will take the higher 2026 option (but Padres have more CBT flexibility then). If he does recover the advantage to Kim is an opt out to get a max contract long term. That may be the Boras strategy with whichever team is in play for Kim. Just can't determine which teams in play for Kim ... and their willingness to take risk at what cost.

I will throw in one long shot ... depends on how Preller sees 2026 and beyond along with Kim's projected health. He could take the gamble on Kim on a 4 year deal in the $12MM AAV range (pay the premium in CBT penalty in 2025 but OK beyond) once Cease, Arraez, probably Suarez, and maybe King depart via FA. When DeVries arrives (maybe in 2026) he takes SS or 2B, Kim at SS or 2B, Bogaerts / Cronenwoth share 1B/DH.

This could go a lot of ways but would like Kim back as a Padre.

Quote from ultratvfan on October 14, 2024, 2:14 pm

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/10/luis-arraez-interested-in-extension-with-padres.html

Quote from fenn68 on October 15, 2024, 4:33 am

Quote from ultratvfan on October 14, 2024, 2:14 pm

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/10/luis-arraez-interested-in-extension-with-padres.html

Sort of the standard comment by all FA ... keep all future alternatives open with positive relationships. Padres also have said they would like a long term relationship with Arraez ... same logic.

In the end ... it is the money. In the Padres - Arraez case can't see an extension financially working for either the Padres or Arraez. Padres offer a QO after 2025 ... declined ... Padres get Comp Pick. Padres will have higher priority draws on their payroll ... e.g. resign a SP (King), extend Merrill.

Understand I really like Arraez' ability to hit, work the count to wear down the pitcher and give the other players more view of the pitcher's stuff. However, he is projected to get $14.6MM in ARB ... is young ... so expect a demand for a long term deal at greater than $15MM AAV. With no power, no ability to take a BB, zero defense, and limited base running ability he is a one trick pony and not worth that contract level.

Padres will let him go FA (with the QO) BUT not sure any team will meet his demands ... his limited skill set is not valued (at that price) by many teams (if any). Once he understands he does not have a market at his demands, MIGHT circle back to the Padres and a more acceptable deal ... no idea what Preller sees as fair value. I could see a decent multi-year deal but AAV? $10MM?

Side: not impossible that the Padres do make an extension over the winter with Arraez not going to ARB (moving his 2025 from $10MM 2024to $14.6MM) ... with a long term (5 years) at $10MM AAV or so. That really depends on how Arraez sees his future FA market and the value of a stable guarantee.

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on October 15, 2024, 5:09 am

Arraez's "defects" will be the only way we would be able to keep him.

All teams know of his defense/speed issues so it will be interesting to see how much other teams would offer.

Another Batting title wouldn't change any of this but it sure wouldn't hurt his chances of getting multiple offers.

 

Quote from fenn68 on October 15, 2024, 12:19 pm

As most of us observed ... Padres' offense struggled vs LHP. So that (at least on the margin) is where Preller may seek some upgrade. In 2024 26% of the AB by the Padres were against LHP ... so would not over compensate considering overall they finish #4 in the NL in OPS.

Vs RHP ... .764 OPS, 3rd in NL

Vs LHP ... .690 OPS, 10th in NL, that is not good but not ugly. Weak links were Cronenworth (.513) and Campusano (.500) but also under .700 were Tatis, Merrill, Arraez, and Bogaerts ... and they will not be platooned so have to hope for self improvement.

That might lead Preller to insure he has at least one (if not two) bench pieces that handle LHP better to platoon (pinch hit) for Croney and Campy.

Note: Padres were 5th in the NL with a 3.86 ERA ... and with Musgrove out, Perez FA ... that maybe become a more serious issue.

Quote from Randy Manese on October 15, 2024, 5:43 pm

Cronenworth has been in a steady decline against LHP since he hit .270/770 BA/OPS in 2021.  It was 232/714 in 2022, 229/665 in 2023 and 203/531 in 2024; that 270/770 is not coming back.

Campusano, on the other hand, hit 405/1114 against LHP in the majors in 2023 and 283/1072 vs LHP at El Paso in 2023.  In 2022, he hit 278/594 against lefties in the majors and 290/880 against lefties at El Paso.  Based on this, it seems this was a small sample size in 2024 (42 AB's) where Campusano just didn't hit any pitcher, left or right, after his first injury, so I'm not that worried about him against LHP.

Extension of Cronenworth looking worse and worse even though he rebounded a little bit this year.  Wonder if there  any contenders who could use a platoon bat, who drives in runs and plays a great defense at 2b?  Seems like our only way out of this bad contract.

Quote from fenn68 on October 16, 2024, 4:03 am

Quote from Randy Manese on October 15, 2024, 5:43 pm

Cronenworth has been in a steady decline against LHP since he hit .270/770 BA/OPS in 2021.  It was 232/714 in 2022, 229/665 in 2023 and 203/531 in 2024; that 270/770 is not coming back.

Campusano, on the other hand, hit 405/1114 against LHP in the majors in 2023 and 283/1072 vs LHP at El Paso in 2023.  In 2022, he hit 278/594 against lefties in the majors and 290/880 against lefties at El Paso.  Based on this, it seems this was a small sample size in 2024 (42 AB's) where Campusano just didn't hit any pitcher, left or right, after his first injury, so I'm not that worried about him against LHP.

Extension of Cronenworth looking worse and worse even though he rebounded a little bit this year.  Wonder if there  any contenders who could use a platoon bat, who drives in runs and plays a great defense at 2b?  Seems like our only way out of this bad contract.

Admittedly not a fan of Cronenworth’s contract but stepping back it is not that bad … just avoid getting overly influenced by his poor hitting v LHP.

At $11-12MM per year a bit high yet he delivered in 2024 a 105 wRC+ (so above average) and a 2.1 WAR (usually valued greater than $11-12MM). Every year with inflation that locked in salary looks cheaper (albeit Croney has to continue at a 2.1 WAR level). Have to look at the entirety of the contract vs the moment …and who really knows the future.

Could trade him (but would not expect a quality return) … he does have a limited no trade to 8 teams annually … but the contract through 2030 is a problem which probably would require the Padres to eat some of the contract or actually add a decent prospect in the deal.

Biggest problem would be finding (and acquiring) equal quality at a lower cost … 2.1 WAR players don’t come cheap … and for now no help coming internally. Also, he provides defense at 1B and 2B with emergency use as a SS … over a full season (given little depth on the roster) that has value.

Again, don’t love the contract but until they have a legit alternative in hand (they don’t) he has more value to the Padres than the alternatives. He stays.

Side note … and this may be impacted by shifting back and forth on positions … defensively Bogaerts was better than Cronenwoth at 2B (reputation aside) in 2024 stat-wise with both pretty close in 2B innings.

Quote from BoosterSD on October 16, 2024, 6:25 am

As we assess the team needs for 2025, we can start by looking at the positives. These positions are locked with very good players. RF with Tatis, CF with Merrill, 3B with Machado, and 2B with either Bogaerts or Crone. We have Campusano for C, but that probably needs an upgrade. Currently we have have holes at SS, LF, and to a point 1B.

LF, this should (in theory) be the easy one to fill. As Profar wants to return, SD should want him to return, just need to work out reasonable money. IF Profar does not return, at least LF is the easiest OF position to fill.

1B, while not typical, we can pencil in Arraez at 1B. While typically a power position, SD has enough power in other spots that SD can handle the lack of RBI/HRs that the 1B position normally produces.

SS; is the elephant in the room, especially considering how many SS SD actually has on its roster. Kim, even with his injury and Boras as his agent, probably declines his option. SD needs to find a SS. Budget will be limited, so probably cant/shouldnt spend big on a FA acquisition. Option 1, move Bogaerts back to SS. Its possible that this would only need to be a two year solution and then DeVries is probably ready for the 2027 season. He could be ready half way through 2026. Option 2, sign a glove first, inexpensive SS such as a Ahmed. Once again, holding the spot for DeVries. I know that Bogaerts had one really bad game at SS, but I think (especially with the money invested in him) I would have Bogaerts go back to SS for two years, and then in 2027, transition to 1B.

Quote from BoosterSD on October 16, 2024, 12:34 pm

Its known on this website that I am not a big fan of the Bogaerts contract, thinks its worse than the Crone extension. So question, would you make the following trade?

BOS gets Bogaerts back and SD gets Masataka Yoshida? BOS OF is getting crowded according to a MLBTR blog I just read.

SD gets a LHH LFer or DH, BOS gets hometown player back, and SD saves about $7.45M in CBT room.

SD might have to add some money and/or a prospect or two.