Quote from Alex Tamayo on October 12, 2024, 5:47 pm

Quote from ultratvfan on October 12, 2024, 5:42 pm

Quote from fenn68 on October 12, 2024, 5:37 pm

Quote from ultratvfan on October 12, 2024, 4:10 pm

Should AJP try to sign FA SS Willy Adames?

No … the 29 year old will command at least a 5 year / $100MM deal … maybe more. Padres need to sign SP, LF, C, DH right now under what should be a limited budget. Need lower cost options.

I hear you. We have Profar in LF with Peralta and Lockridge as back up. But, if we lose Kim the Padres will need a SS. Also, AJP will need to find way to keep Scott and  I would like to believe that he will re-sign Peralta and Donovan.

I wonder If its easier to find a CF or a SS? If there Is a CF then how about moving Merrill to the SS position?

Quote from BoosterSD on October 12, 2024, 5:49 pm

Quote from ultratvfan on October 12, 2024, 5:42 pm

Quote from fenn68 on October 12, 2024, 5:37 pm

Quote from ultratvfan on October 12, 2024, 4:10 pm

Should AJP try to sign FA SS Willy Adames?

No … the 29 year old will command at least a 5 year / $100MM deal … maybe more. Padres need to sign SP, LF, C, DH right now under what should be a limited budget. Need lower cost options.

I hear you. We have Profar in LF with Peralta and Lockridge as back up. But, if we lose Kim the Padres will need a SS. Also, AJP will need to find way to keep Scott and  I would like to believe that he will re-sign Peralta and Donovan.

Dont forget that Profar is a FA. Peralta another year older and also a FA. Lockridge is a 4th OFer at best.

Quote from BoosterSD on October 12, 2024, 5:51 pm

Quote from Alex Tamayo on October 12, 2024, 5:47 pm

 

I wonder If its easier to find a CF or a SS? If there Is a CF then how about moving Merrill to the SS position?

Honestly at this point a CFer; especially one that can hit and LHH, is like a freaking unicorn. Dont move Merrill or Tatis. Even though the offense blanked in the last two games, there is more than enough offense on this team. We can live we a glove first SS on this team next season.

Quote from fenn68 on October 13, 2024, 3:51 am

Last I heard on Kim was he had the surgery and may not be ready at the start of 2025 … and even then don’t know if his arm fully regains strength to play quality SS … and that is his prime value position. Add that Boras is now his agent and Boras will take as long as needed to get the best contract … so would not expect Kim making a deal until near ST after teams see how his arm progresses. Probalby a “reasonable” year 1 with a heafty player option for 2026 … doubt any team will want a risk of a longer deal given the injury.

Padres will likely have deployed all their money by the time Kim signs somewhere and since other reports suggest the Padres want to move Bogaerts back to 2B … look to a signing /trade for a low cost, glove first legit SS … agree that the rest of the offense is strong enough to carry a weak bat if they sign their #1 priority Profar.

Side … if they really believe in DeVries … and see him on a fast track like Merrill … will not want to addd anyone on a long term deal for SS if they see DeVries their in 2-3 years.

Quote from fenn68 on October 13, 2024, 4:15 am

Hopefully they get a Profar deal done quickly so Preller knows he has the offense basically set and can focus on SP and filling out the bench (likely with low cost / one year deals). Don’t forget they will be spending in tier one penalty zone for the first $20-25MM … so actually are committing more than the contract AAV. Breach tier two makes the overage worse.

Add that even though the FA after 2025 will make a lot of payroll space … may want to resign someone (likely King at a hefty deal) and replace the others (who will get major deals) with some sense of quality that will still cost. Then add the attempt to create a long term extension for Merrill (that will generate a major AAV jump). Then balance that with not wanting to exceed the CBT for a second year (greater penalties and just the plain money drag) will shape Preller away from any major long term contracts.

Quite a challenge for Preller in setting priorities and actually finding players (and signing them) to build a roster that may be the best shot for the  playoffs for the next few years.

 

Quote from fenn68 on October 13, 2024, 4:41 am

Padres want Profar back, his teammates want Profar back, Profar wants to come back … but that does not translate into a “cheap” contract … this is the deal gives Profar long term security and therefore so tricky negotiation.

Had a career year on the field (so a bit of a risk of repeating) but no denying his value to the team off the field and that is the hook in sizing the deal. No idea how other teams will value him on the open market since his work outside the Padres runs is less impressive.

So, I am guessing a 3-4 year deal (security keeps the AAV down) at age 32 and even if his offense starts to slide he still contributes to the team motivation. Maybe in the $10-12MM range? Remember he spent most of the year as the #1 LF per WAR in the NL and that is a selling point for Profar.

Then maybe re-sign Higashioka to pair with Campusano for about $3-4MM … a catching duo is critical given injury potential (especially Campy). After that SP … hopefully Sasaki (AAV will count as league minimum … not the bonus) and Suguaro (at 35 maybe not a big AAV deal) … add both and that cushions the loss of Musgrove in 2025 and Cease / King in 2026 at what would be a cheaper cost than any established current ML options.

After that scrabble for lower cost options (as they did in 2024) to fill the roster. That may include Solano and Peralta who at their ages (and the 2024 where they had to sign MiL contracts) may be returned in the $2MM/1 year range each.

Just looking at those options … and that puts them already in tier two for penalties. Money is always an issue … so this may be a challenge for the Padres and Preller.

Quote from fenn68 on October 14, 2024, 10:15 am

Looked at Spotrac's projection on a FA contract for Kim (without adjusting for the impact of his injury) and they saw him as a $12.3MM AAV and a 4 year contract. Given the risk of Kim not being ready for 2025 (or just not to his ML SS standards) would seem Padres will just pass on him and pretty sure Boras will want that to happen too.

So, with the returning Padres offense, especially if they re-sign Profar, and a limited budget ... could that low cost, defense first SS be Nick Ahmed? He can't hit (low .200 BA / no power) but in 2024 with LAD/SF/SD still defensively ranked in the top 10 (dWAR) while being hampered by a wrist injury. He was relegated to signing deals with LAD ($760K annualized), SF ($860K annualized), and SD. So, ended up with a lot of minor league time and earned less than ML league minimum of the year. At age 34, maybe be able to get him at $1MM / 1 year as he tries to rebound on a contender. Keep in mind that 2025 league minimum will be $760K and that will be spent on whomever makes the 26 man ... so very little $ at risk over that.

Since with a limited budget ... and it will take the bulk of the money to re-sign Profar and some legit SP for the #4 and #5 slots ... have to go low cost on the supporting offensive pieces.

Along those lines Solano (36) and D.Peralta (37) were minor league signings in 2024 and produced ... should be able to resign each in that same $1-1.5MM range to fill out the bench. Higashioka make take a bit more at $2.5MMish.

If they can sign Ahmed, Solano, Peralta, and Higashioka for a total of $6-7MM that fills out a veteran bench and leaves money on the table for Profar and SP.

Quote from fenn68 on October 14, 2024, 10:28 am

Spotrac projects Profar's FA value at $12.9MM AAV for 2 years ... seems about right. Padres could try to lower that AAV by:

1. offer a 3 year deal (more guaranteed money) at maybe $10MM AAV for 3 years.
2. offer a 1 year deal at a low 2025 but give player options at a much higher salary for each 2026 and 2027. Since they would be player options they do not impact the 2025 CBT calculation and hit 2026 when the payroll should take a dip give the pending FA. Profar would be in control.

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Spotrac has Scott getting $16.4 AAV / 4 years ... out of Padres range. Diaz $13.1MM AAV / 3 years ... hard to believe. Perez $9.3MM / 1 year ... might appeal IF Preller can land Sasaki / Sugano.

W. Peralta may actually be a candidate to opt out even though he did not impress in 2024. He has 3 more option years at $4.1 MM per year. Spotrac has his getting a FA deal at 5.6 AAV/ 2 years. So he gets just less than his current deal but in one less year ... so a chance to get more as a FA after 2 years. This will be an interesting call by Peralta's camp.

Quote from BoosterSD on October 14, 2024, 12:15 pm

Quote from fenn68 on October 14, 2024, 10:28 am

Spotrac projects Profar's FA value at $12.9MM AAV for 2 years ... seems about right. Padres could try to lower that AAV by:

1. offer a 3 year deal (more guaranteed money) at maybe $10MM AAV for 3 years.
2. offer a 1 year deal at a low 2025 but give player options at a much higher salary for each 2026 and 2027. Since they would be player options they do not impact the 2025 CBT calculation and hit 2026 when the payroll should take a dip give the pending FA. Profar would be in control.

I can understand why Spotrac is estimating Profar so high as he just had a career year; however, I dont think the market will pay that for him based on history.

1. Profar has vastly under performed when not in SD. Look at how long it took for him to sign in 2023, only got $7M from COL, and was cut.
2. He is turning 32, and history says that he will start aging soon.

I see an AAV less than $9M for Profar, and then Profar wanting to stay in SD takes a discount. I see something around 3 for $24-26M. Maybe SD and Preller reward him for being who he is for SD, and they go 4 years for $33M.