Quote from MrPadre19 on July 6, 2025, 8:54 am

BTW…..Laureano doesn’t hit lefties either.

But we also don’t have a LF who can hit righties right now.

70%+ of ML pitchers are RH…..personally I’d start with getting a guy that can hit those.

The fact guys like Tatis & Merrill haven’t been hitting the last month is another reason getting rentals that only help in 2025 isn’t the answer.
We have no Catcher or Left fielder coming from the system.…..if we’re going to improve those positions getting guys that don’t help the next two seasons seems very short sighted.

Do we really want the same problem next year too?

My thoughts are all based on Prellers history…he doesn’t do things in a small way.

We can’t waste 2-3 years of Machado and others by “waiting” for prospects that may not come….not now….not after all he’s done the last 6 years to get us where we are…..plus it just isn’t who he is.

I sgree it’s all moot if Tatis & Merrill don’t start hitting….I believe they will.So just putting a 2 month band aid on a wound that won’t heal by itself seems short sighted and not his style.Would be different if we had prospects a year away at both positions…..we don’t.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Quote from Ryan OShea on July 6, 2025, 9:42 am

There is positive regression in this team. I’m confident that if Tatis ever agreed to a 10 day IL stint he’d come back much improved.

Im exceedingly confident that Cease is going to figure it out and have a dominant 2H.

Manny is hitting at or above his expectation albeit with better average and less slug than you you’d prefer.

Merrill didn’t start to show his star until August last year.

Sheets has been amazing, and maybe he turns back into a pumpkin but no reason to believe that’s the case yet.

Xander has started to show he can still hit at replacement level which is a welcome surprise. That Langford kid stole 2 hits from last night otherwise we win.

I think King comes back around August time frame as well. Bergert won’t continue at his current level but I think either he or Randy can definitely be a 4th starter in a playoff run.

This bullpen is the best in baseball.

I’d argue we’re a a LF/C away from being a legit WS contender. As long as we get some positive regression and a healthy King. Keep the faith

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 6, 2025, 9:47 am

Quote from fenn68 on July 6, 2025, 8:36 am

Preller has nothing to trade (and out bid others) to get any elite player who is performing well at this point ... assuming there is any elite player out there to get.

If Tatis does not start to hit ... at his upper potential ... combined with inconsistent play by Machado, Bogaerts, and Merrill ... the Padres are never going to beat top opponent pitching. To that end ... neither upgraded SP nor upgraded LF/C will help the Padres make (or go deep in) the playoffs.

Half a season in and the core 6 ... who the Padres were relying on ... have not delivered to expectations ...

This is why you don’t make small moves that only help in 2025.

Which is why I shifted from short term rentals to filling two glaring holes for 2-3 years.

Again it also allows to save the $ on keeping Cease and/or King and reallocate it to C or 1B/DH or another SP

How much do we save letting Cease/King/Arraez/Suarez leave?

 

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 6, 2025, 9:51 am

Quote from Ryan OShea on July 6, 2025, 9:42 am

There is positive regression in this team. I’m confident that if Tatis ever agreed to a 10 day IL stint he’d come back much improved.

Im exceedingly confident that Cease is going to figure it out and have a dominant 2H.

Manny is hitting at or above his expectation albeit with better average and less slug than you you’d prefer.

Merrill didn’t start to show his star until August last year.

Sheets has been amazing, and maybe he turns back into a pumpkin but no reason to believe that’s the case yet.

Xander has started to show he can still hit at replacement level which is a welcome surprise. That Langford kid stole 2 hits from last night otherwise we win.

I think King comes back around August time frame as well. Bergert won’t continue at his current level but I think either he or Randy can definitely be a 4th starter in a playoff run.

This bullpen is the best in baseball.

I’d argue we’re a a LF/C away from being a legit WS contender. As long as we get some positive regression and a healthy King. Keep the faith

That’s a LOT of assumptions and hoping.

And who’s our Catcher and LF for 2026 and 2027?

Like I said…there’s no one coming.

Pushing the problem down the rod isn’t Prellers style and I for one don’t want to see this lineup with the same two glaring holes again on opening day 2026

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on July 6, 2025, 10:13 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 6, 2025, 9:47 am

Quote from fenn68 on July 6, 2025, 8:36 am

Preller has nothing to trade (and out bid others) to get any elite player who is performing well at this point ... assuming there is any elite player out there to get.

If Tatis does not start to hit ... at his upper potential ... combined with inconsistent play by Machado, Bogaerts, and Merrill ... the Padres are never going to beat top opponent pitching. To that end ... neither upgraded SP nor upgraded LF/C will help the Padres make (or go deep in) the playoffs.

Half a season in and the core 6 ... who the Padres were relying on ... have not delivered to expectations ...

This is why you don’t make small moves that only help in 2025.

Which is why I shifted from short term rentals to filling two glaring holes for 2-3 years.

Again it also allows to save the $ on keeping Cease and/or King and reallocate it to C or 1B/DH or another SP

How much do we save letting Cease/King/Arraez/Suarez leave?

 

 

"Save vs Avoid in 2026" ... currently the four cost in CASH $42MM but just guessing at a the resigning costs of all four would be $75MM+/- AAV and on longer term deals for at least King and Cease.

Have to consider the Padres are over the current luxury tax by $22MM (incurring cash penalty) ... probably don't want to exceed again in 2026 and start getting their draft picks impacted as multi-year violators.

One reason they have the issues in LF/C ... my guess ... is that they did not have the remaining budget to go after higher profile FA (higher salary) and had to settle on the cheap Gurriel, Heyward, Maldonado, Iglesisas, Diaz, and Sheets. Has that really changed to allow for a big 2025 salary to be added?

If in 2026 they let the FA go ... does anything really change if they did add a big player now ... just swaying deck chairs on the Titanic?

Beyond the money ... who does Preller trade to get that unnamed impact SP / LF / C ... or multiple upgrades of that quality?

Preller is in a bind ... short on trade chips ... short on payroll space ... a 2026 issue with FA to be ... and not clear set of available impact upgrades that a number of teams could out bid him to get.

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on July 6, 2025, 10:27 am

On the offense ... I think we are seeing the disconnect between season stats and game by game impact.

While the core 6 have basically good season stats ... they are a product of extreme highs and extreme lows (and some issues with RISP) ... and net have yielded a lack of consistent run production for the team. Padres are 23rd in runs scored in MLB (27th in HR) and given that Sheets has be better than advertised ... can't blame that all on LF and C at the bottom of the order.

It is all down to Machado, Tatis, Bogaerts, and Merrill being consistent hitters to their contract expectations and in the clutch with the games on the line.

Quote from fenn68 on July 6, 2025, 11:35 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 6, 2025, 9:51 am

Quote from Ryan OShea on July 6, 2025, 9:42 am

There is positive regression in this team. I’m confident that if Tatis ever agreed to a 10 day IL stint he’d come back much improved.

Im exceedingly confident that Cease is going to figure it out and have a dominant 2H.

Manny is hitting at or above his expectation albeit with better average and less slug than you you’d prefer.

Merrill didn’t start to show his star until August last year.

Sheets has been amazing, and maybe he turns back into a pumpkin but no reason to believe that’s the case yet.

Xander has started to show he can still hit at replacement level which is a welcome surprise. That Langford kid stole 2 hits from last night otherwise we win.

I think King comes back around August time frame as well. Bergert won’t continue at his current level but I think either he or Randy can definitely be a 4th starter in a playoff run.

This bullpen is the best in baseball.

I’d argue we’re a a LF/C away from being a legit WS contender. As long as we get some positive regression and a healthy King. Keep the faith

That’s a LOT of assumptions and hoping.

And who’s our Catcher and LF for 2026 and 2027?

Like I said…there’s no one coming.

Pushing the problem down the rod isn’t Prellers style and I for one don’t want to see this lineup with the same two glaring holes again on opening day 2026

 

 

The one Catching target for Preller (now or even this winter) that meets the status of a "quality catcher" for the next few years is Sean Murphy with ATL. He really is now the #2 catcher behind their blue chip prospect Baldwin.

He is "only" 30 and is controlled for 4 more years at a "modest" $15MM/yr ... good for a catcher of his quality. Last year is a club option so risk of decline is only 3 years (ages 31-32-33). Plus defense (Shildt likes that) and still an "average" hitter.

Now ATL is saying they are not going to trade him ... but they are falling out of WC contention and paying $15MM for the #2 catcher is a bit steep if they want (need) to deploy payroll to other needs. So who knows in 3 weeks (or in the winter).

No idea what the Padres have that ATL would want ... but not a small haul of players. Plus ATL will think they want to contend again in 2026 so probably looking for players that help in 2026. Best guess is that the Padres offer pitching ... SP (one out of Kolek, Bergert, Vasquez) and maybe sweeten it with a RP. PS I would throw-in Georgia native Campusano just because.

Side ... no idea on a LF / DH impact multi-year target at this point. Does suggest to me the need for offense makes re-signing Arraez the priority among the FA to be rather than creating another hole to fill.

2026: Musgrove, Pivetta, Darvish, and the remaining two of Kolek, Bergert, and Vasquez ... backed by Nett and Baez could work for the season.

Bigger package for Murphy AND Profar?

Quote from fenn68 on July 6, 2025, 12:04 pm

Interesting MLBTradeRumors article on the trade possibility of Bryan Reynolds (PITT).

He has a limited no trade clause to 6 teams: those teams are the Yankees, Mets, Blue Jays, Dodgers, Giants, and Padres.

All contenders suggesting that his strategy was to get extra leverage for any deal. He is have one of his poorest seasons, age 30, and comes with 5 more control years at about $15MM per year. Add the limited no trade and that puts PITT in a bit of a bind trying to deal him. PITT is always short on money and will not contend near term so might be forced to make a deal for less than you would expect just to clear the 5 year liability.

Gamble for Preller on the future production at that contract level ... but if he could land him without giving up any major prospects ... worth it?

Re-sign Arraez, trade for Murphy, trade for Reynolds ... offense set for quite a few years ... some question is being set on long term deals is good or bad depending on future production. Money being money those three would cost about $45MM annually ... so likely SP will have to move to internal options.

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 6, 2025, 1:36 pm

“If in 2026 they let the FA go ... does anything really change if they did add a big player now ... just swaying deck chairs on the Titanic?”

Not expecting them to add a big player now.

This is why my suggestion was Sanchez & Cabrera.

Combined they will be less than $10 mil in ‘26 and then their performance will determine the next 3

The days of signing $200+ mil free agents is over….another reason this type of deal makes sense.

Find a platoon LF who does hit RH pitching…..an inexpensive Catcher who hits better than what we have (shouldn’t be hard) and a 1B/DH next off season.

Every other position is pretty much locked in