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2025 Padres Season
Quote from fenn68 on October 5, 2024, 11:19 amQuote from Randy Manese on October 5, 2024, 8:42 amIf a player is out for the entire season due to injury, it is likely the team has an insurance policy that would pay all or part of the salary owed that player. However, does anyone know if Musgrove's CBT number for the year (20M) for 2025 still count against the team's CBT? It would be nice to have another 20M available to get a decent replacement for Musgrove in 2025 but unfortunately don't think this is how it works. Anyone know for sure?
Pretty sure Musgrove will count against the CBT. Also would not bet on insurance … expensive and not as common as believed.
Quote from Randy Manese on October 5, 2024, 8:42 amIf a player is out for the entire season due to injury, it is likely the team has an insurance policy that would pay all or part of the salary owed that player. However, does anyone know if Musgrove's CBT number for the year (20M) for 2025 still count against the team's CBT? It would be nice to have another 20M available to get a decent replacement for Musgrove in 2025 but unfortunately don't think this is how it works. Anyone know for sure?
Pretty sure Musgrove will count against the CBT. Also would not bet on insurance … expensive and not as common as believed.
Quote from Randy Manese on October 5, 2024, 2:59 pmI was hoping I was wrong, but when I Cot's Contracts for the Padres showing we paid Patino his full 749,000 salary in 2024, it seemed unlikely. This situation may be one where the players weigh in during the next Contract Negotiations to get a more competitive salary for free agents late in the signing period when someone get hurt for the entire season in spring training. It also give the owners more flexibility under the CBT to possibly trade or sign a free agent.
I thought insurance was a given but I guess it's all about the premiums so basically I can see the point of clubs self-insuring and hope the injuries aren't severe.
I was hoping I was wrong, but when I Cot's Contracts for the Padres showing we paid Patino his full 749,000 salary in 2024, it seemed unlikely. This situation may be one where the players weigh in during the next Contract Negotiations to get a more competitive salary for free agents late in the signing period when someone get hurt for the entire season in spring training. It also give the owners more flexibility under the CBT to possibly trade or sign a free agent.
I thought insurance was a given but I guess it's all about the premiums so basically I can see the point of clubs self-insuring and hope the injuries aren't severe.
Quote from 84padres on October 12, 2024, 5:12 amThis was one of the most enjoyable seasons in a long time . I am only disappointed that we will not get a chance to avenge the 84 or 98 world series opponents.
The season's improvement was due to the complete turnaround in extra innings. from 2-12 to 10-2, that's an 18 game improvement . From 82-80 to 93-69 , that's a 22 game improvement . I can't believe there has been a 2 season swing like that ever . Hard to guess what next years team will do .
This was one of the most enjoyable seasons in a long time . I am only disappointed that we will not get a chance to avenge the 84 or 98 world series opponents.
The season's improvement was due to the complete turnaround in extra innings. from 2-12 to 10-2, that's an 18 game improvement . From 82-80 to 93-69 , that's a 22 game improvement . I can't believe there has been a 2 season swing like that ever . Hard to guess what next years team will do .
Quote from fenn68 on October 12, 2024, 6:45 amYeh, the hitting did not show up in game 5 but that should not obscure one of the best overall offenses for the Padres for the complete season. Good pitching stops good hitting and on that day Yamamoto was was good pitcher.
Actually, of the eight Division Playoff teams the Padres were 4th in OPS (.678). Seven of the eight teams were below the regular season average OPS (just over .700). The only team better than average was the NYM (.822). Good playoff pitching stops hitting as usual. The bottom two for the Padres were Arraez (.364) and Machado (.523).
As for pitching, the Padres were overall #6 in the Division series with an ugly 4.19 ERA (Mets #1 (2.50 ERA) but most of the pitching was great EXCEPT Cease and Hoeing. Cease started two games ... 5 inning with 10 hits leading to a 14.30 ERA / 2.60 WHIP (and two losses). Hoeing entered two games ... 1.1 innings a 3.75 WHIP. The rest of the staff did their jobs. The loss of Musgrove was huge.
I choose to celebrate the quality of the total season ... one of the best offensively / pitching in Padre history and the entertainment they provided for the past six months. Thank you Padres.
Yeh, the hitting did not show up in game 5 but that should not obscure one of the best overall offenses for the Padres for the complete season. Good pitching stops good hitting and on that day Yamamoto was was good pitcher.
Actually, of the eight Division Playoff teams the Padres were 4th in OPS (.678). Seven of the eight teams were below the regular season average OPS (just over .700). The only team better than average was the NYM (.822). Good playoff pitching stops hitting as usual. The bottom two for the Padres were Arraez (.364) and Machado (.523).
As for pitching, the Padres were overall #6 in the Division series with an ugly 4.19 ERA (Mets #1 (2.50 ERA) but most of the pitching was great EXCEPT Cease and Hoeing. Cease started two games ... 5 inning with 10 hits leading to a 14.30 ERA / 2.60 WHIP (and two losses). Hoeing entered two games ... 1.1 innings a 3.75 WHIP. The rest of the staff did their jobs. The loss of Musgrove was huge.
I choose to celebrate the quality of the total season ... one of the best offensively / pitching in Padre history and the entertainment they provided for the past six months. Thank you Padres.
Quote from fenn68 on October 12, 2024, 7:38 amSo, on to the offseason to try to maintain the quality of this team in 2025. Just as a baseline based on letting all the keyFA depart (Profar, Kim, Higashioka, Solano, Peralta, Scott), using MLBTradeRumors estimate of Arb decisions (8), and filling out the remaining 26 man roster with league minimum players ... I have the Padres only $4MM under the CBT threshold. I expect the Padres to go over the threshold in 2025 (but probably not by a lot).
Preller will have a challenge ... money availability will do a lot to shape his moves. On a positive strategic side ... 2026 sets up much better with Arraez, King, and Cease being FA and Hosmer dropping off ... so Preller does not have to focus on one year deals if he does not plan to try to sign them beyond 2025. My guess is that even if they exceed the CBT in 2025 (a last shot to win with this core) would expect them to shoot to drop back under for 2026.
Let the offseason games begin.
So, on to the offseason to try to maintain the quality of this team in 2025. Just as a baseline based on letting all the keyFA depart (Profar, Kim, Higashioka, Solano, Peralta, Scott), using MLBTradeRumors estimate of Arb decisions (8), and filling out the remaining 26 man roster with league minimum players ... I have the Padres only $4MM under the CBT threshold. I expect the Padres to go over the threshold in 2025 (but probably not by a lot).
Preller will have a challenge ... money availability will do a lot to shape his moves. On a positive strategic side ... 2026 sets up much better with Arraez, King, and Cease being FA and Hosmer dropping off ... so Preller does not have to focus on one year deals if he does not plan to try to sign them beyond 2025. My guess is that even if they exceed the CBT in 2025 (a last shot to win with this core) would expect them to shoot to drop back under for 2026.
Let the offseason games begin.
Quote from Alex Tamayo on October 12, 2024, 11:02 amJust wondering, if available, what would it take to get Skubal, I guess everything we have and then some, right?
Just wondering, if available, what would it take to get Skubal, I guess everything we have and then some, right?
Quote from ultratvfan on October 12, 2024, 4:10 pmShould AJP try to sign FA SS Willy Adames?
Should AJP try to sign FA SS Willy Adames?
Quote from fenn68 on October 12, 2024, 5:37 pmQuote from ultratvfan on October 12, 2024, 4:10 pmShould AJP try to sign FA SS Willy Adames?
No … the 29 year old will command at least a 5 year / $100MM deal … maybe more. Padres need to sign SP, LF, C, DH right now under what should be a limited budget. Need lower cost options.
Quote from ultratvfan on October 12, 2024, 4:10 pmShould AJP try to sign FA SS Willy Adames?
No … the 29 year old will command at least a 5 year / $100MM deal … maybe more. Padres need to sign SP, LF, C, DH right now under what should be a limited budget. Need lower cost options.
Quote from fenn68 on October 12, 2024, 5:39 pmQuote from Alex Tamayo on October 12, 2024, 11:02 amJust wondering, if available, what would it take to get Skubal, I guess everything we have and then some, right?
More than the Padres have (or are willing to trade) … if available could easily be outbid by a number of teams with better prospects.
Quote from Alex Tamayo on October 12, 2024, 11:02 amJust wondering, if available, what would it take to get Skubal, I guess everything we have and then some, right?
More than the Padres have (or are willing to trade) … if available could easily be outbid by a number of teams with better prospects.
Quote from ultratvfan on October 12, 2024, 5:42 pmQuote from fenn68 on October 12, 2024, 5:37 pmQuote from ultratvfan on October 12, 2024, 4:10 pmShould AJP try to sign FA SS Willy Adames?
No … the 29 year old will command at least a 5 year / $100MM deal … maybe more. Padres need to sign SP, LF, C, DH right now under what should be a limited budget. Need lower cost options.
I hear you. We have Profar in LF with Peralta and Lockridge as back up. But, if we lose Kim the Padres will need a SS. Also, AJP will need to find way to keep Scott and I would like to believe that he will re-sign Peralta and Donovan.
Quote from fenn68 on October 12, 2024, 5:37 pmQuote from ultratvfan on October 12, 2024, 4:10 pmShould AJP try to sign FA SS Willy Adames?
No … the 29 year old will command at least a 5 year / $100MM deal … maybe more. Padres need to sign SP, LF, C, DH right now under what should be a limited budget. Need lower cost options.
I hear you. We have Profar in LF with Peralta and Lockridge as back up. But, if we lose Kim the Padres will need a SS. Also, AJP will need to find way to keep Scott and I would like to believe that he will re-sign Peralta and Donovan.




