Quote from fenn68 on October 4, 2024, 8:36 am

No idea what kind a contract he would command at age 35.
Add him and Sasaki (at league minimum for CBT purposes) might gamble on trading Cease for other needs while lowering payroll for CBT purposes.

Quote from Randy Manese on October 4, 2024, 12:41 pm

MLBTR did a projection of possible arbitration salaries for all arbitration eligibles in 2025.  I found the numbers interesting regarding two Padres players who lost their cases in arbitration last year.

Luis Arraez asked for 12M but had to settle for the Marlins' offer of 10.6M.  Even though Arraez won his 3rd consecutive batting title, in virtually every hitting category his numbers are down from his last two years.  A lot of that probably has to do with his injury but in arbitration, it's really all about the numbers.  MLBTR has Arraez getting 14.6M; I'm thinking he goes in asking for 14M and settles with the Padres for 13.5.  That's still almost 3M than he made last year and he can get what he wants in the open market after the 2025 season.

Jason Adam asked for 3.25M from Tampa Bay but had to settle for 2.7M.  Adam had a much better year in 2024 than he did in 2023.  I can see him asking for the MLBTR number of 5M but settling with the Padres for 4.75M.  Adam, even though he'll be 33 next year, still has another arbitration year and may find himself back in more of a closer role in 2025.  He could be the bridge between losing Suarez and the next great Padres closer, who may or may not be in the Padres minor league system.  If Adam has a good 2025, could see his salary go to 8M+ in 2026.

 

Quote from BoosterSD on October 4, 2024, 2:29 pm

Well we can count out Musgrove for any plans in 2025, he is having TJ surgery according to MLBTR.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/10/joe-musgrove-to-undergo-tommy-john-surgery.html

 

Quote from Randy Manese on October 4, 2024, 8:02 pm

With Musgrove out, we'll still have Cease, King, Darvish, Vasquez and Waldron as our possible 5 man rotation.  They might try Hoeing and/or Morejon into a SP role, although both have not had success in the majors as SP.  It is possible that Niebla can unlock SP success with Hoeing and he just needs to build up his stamina.  The problem with Morejon, before this year, is that he was always hurt.  Since he got through this year with possibly the most time up and throwing in the bullpen and the mound, if he comes back injury free in 2025, I can see where he might finally develop into that SP role.  The only other internal candidate I see may be Bergert.

Preller will be scouring the majors/minors for other options and if we can land one or both of the Japanese pitchers who might be on the market (especially Sasaki!), this will greatly help our rotation.  Should be another interesting winter for Preller.

Quote from fenn68 on October 4, 2024, 11:16 pm

17 months until the start of the 2026 season, ample recovery time, however, Musgrove is 31 now … 33 then and not sure how age impacts full recovery … he is not 18.

Quote from fenn68 on October 4, 2024, 11:33 pm

Given the respective performances over the past 1-2 months … Perez has to be the next up starter for the playoffs.

Not going to rely on Waldron even for 2025 given his 2nd half 2024. Perez will walk as a FA … so Preller will be looking for both a #4 and #5 SP … not easy or cheap.

Up the pursuit of the two Japanese pitchers for sure and pick up some minor rebound arms. Not a lot of trade chips or budget to deal big time.

More payroll may be targeted to SP resulting not  pursuing Kim.

Maybe surprise internally from Baez, Cruz, Berger, or ???????

Quote from ultratvfan on October 4, 2024, 11:51 pm

Here are just a few pitchers that are either FAs or possibly could be acquired in a trade that can replace Musgove in 2025

RHP Corbin Burnes is will be the top free agent this off season. But, he will be too expensive. Wacha maybe a free agent if he doesn't pick up his option. Snell will be a free agent.

Maybe a trade for LHP Skubal is  in the cards.  But, he will probably be expensive and I don't want to give up any Padres for him.  Same with Crochet.

Quote from fenn68 on October 5, 2024, 2:24 am

Quote from fenn68 on October 4, 2024, 8:36 am

No idea what kind a contract he would command at age 35.
Add him and Sasaki (at league minimum for CBT purposes) might gamble on trading Cease for other needs while lowering payroll for CBT purposes.

Amend my comment and cancel the idea of dealing Cease.

As I understand Sasaki is under international FA rules that maxes his bonus to a team’s allocation (that will be spent anyway) … will be league minimum for CBT … 6 years of low cost control … all perfect for the Padres if they can sign him.

Sugaro at 35 is a real question as to both length and AAV. Would Preller push for the money with an extra year to keep the AAV down not only for 2025 but as a 2026 hedge against Musgrove not being ready or King leaving for FA.

Not to panic yet … Padres are in the playoffs even with extensive absences by Darvish and Musgrove … along with Tatis, Bogaerts plus the issue with Machado to start the season.

Quote from Randy Manese on October 5, 2024, 8:42 am

If a player is out for the entire season due to injury, it is likely the team has an insurance policy that would pay all or part of the salary owed that player.  However, does anyone know if Musgrove's CBT number for the year (20M) for 2025 still count against the team's CBT?  It would be nice to have another 20M available to get a decent replacement for Musgrove in 2025 but unfortunately don't think this is how it works.  Anyone know for sure?