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2025 Padres Season
#1 · September 30, 2024, 10:44 am
With the hope of the Padres going deep into the 2024 post-season, a lot of posters are already thinking ahead to how competitive the Padres can be next year. The bodies are in place for an encore but is the money? Cot's contracts has us 54.6M under he 2025 CBT, which includes the last year of paying off Hosmer. Most of this amount will go into the arbitration salaries of Cease, Arraez, King and Adam and the free agency contract of Profar.
Higgy and Campusano won't cost us much in free agency/arbitration so our catching tandem should return. Morejon will get a little boost in salary in arbitration and will round out a bullpen that will be missing Tanner Scott but probably has everyone coming back plus a few intriguing arms to join the competition. Bench pieces Solano and Peralta also will not be costly adds. All these pieces might just fit under the current cap - we may have to go a little bit over to take care of all of them.
The big question is whether we can keep Kim. I've seen various mutual option amounts from 7M to 8M to 10M and in almost all cases, the prediction is that Kim will opt out. How can we come up with more money to do that other than to go over the 2025 CBT? With the bad contracts of Bogaerts and Cronenworth not going elsewhere in trade and Wandy Peralta likely to not opt out of his contract, it seems the only 2 larger contracts on the Padres roster that could be traded are Matsui and Suarez. Would we get any offers for either? Probably limited interest for both, since Matsui's contract is likely more than most teams would want to pay for someone who is not a closer. Suarez can opt out of his current contract after the 2025 season and faded at the end of the regular season. If he rebounds in the post-season, then we may have some takers. But would you trade your closer, especially after losing Scott?
I believe we have until 19 November to set our 40 man roster. Enjoy the playoffs and we'll see what happens between the end of the World Series and the November date.
#2 · September 30, 2024, 1:47 pm
Kim opting out could "save" us money.
We could sign him for a 3yr/$18 mil deal and only 6 would count against the CBT instead of $7.
While he would get less per season $18 mil is a lot more than $7.
IF we want to keep him that is.
My guess is that someone else (SF?) will offer more though.
#3 · October 3, 2024, 1:20 pm
Spotrac.com did a very thorough market value analysis of Kim's potential free agency annual salary and came up with 4 year contract of 12.3M/year. Seems like a very fair number and the signing team will probably get more in return on investment than we're going to get from Croney for about that same salary over the next 6 years.
Kim is the second best free agent shortstop available and plays gold glove defense at any of 3 infield positions. While his batting average is not typically high, he gets on base, can steal bases and does not strike out that often besides his excellent defense - this is a winning piece to any ball club. Adding 4.3 million to Kim's current salary is not that much more (baseball money-wise) than he is making now - I just hope we have the budget to get him to sign - for at least one more year, if nothing else.
#4 · October 3, 2024, 1:36 pm
I'd love to have him back but only "after" we're able to keep Profar/Higgy/Solano/Peralta....and maybe extend King.
Don't think there's any way we can keep King "and" Cease unfortunately.
I think we let Scott go......gonna be to expensive.
#5 · October 3, 2024, 9:35 pm
I saw on MLB Trade Rumors that Kim hired Scott Boras. Preller has a better relationship than most with Boras. That's probably not what you want to see if you're hoping to resign him though.
#6 · October 3, 2024, 9:36 pm
HSK changing agents to Boras means bye Kim.
#7 · October 3, 2024, 11:09 pm
Hard to guess how Boras and teams handle the risk coming from the surgery.
Boras has no issue pushing for max money and waiting a long time to sign. Teams will want to see Kim able to throw at SS level. Kim’s peak value is SS defense. So signing may take awhile.
Padres will likely have made their other signings well before and know if they really need pursue Kim and have the money.
#8 · October 3, 2024, 11:56 pm
Quote from lafnboy13 on October 3, 2024, 9:36 pmHSK changing agents to Boras means bye Kim.
Brewers SS Willy Adames is going to be a free agent. I don't if his defense is as good or better than Kim's, but he is better offensively than Kim. He will prbably command a lot of money. I can see him being one of the top free agents this winter.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/10/2024-25-mlb-free-agents.html
https://www.mlb.com/news/2024-25-mlb-free-agents-by-position
#9 · October 4, 2024, 12:35 am
Padres 2024 Free Agents
C Elías Díaz (34, 0.5 War)
C Kyle Higashioka (35 years old, 2.9 WAR) Highest war of the free agent catchers - AJP should keep him.
SS Ha-Seong Kim (29, 6.9 War) - $8MM mutual option with a $2MM buyout
SS Nick Ahmed (35, 0.5)
IF Donavan Solano (37) - AJP needs to hang on to him. Hopefully inexpensive.
OF Jurickson Profar (32, 2.7 War) - He wants to stay with the Padres and should be affordable.
OF David Peralta (37, 0.2 War) - AJP needs to keep him. Hopefully inexpensive.
SP LHP Martín Pérez (34, 0.9) - he was a sold 5th starter and AJP should seriously consider keeping him.
RP LHP Tanner Scott (30 years old, 4.5 WAR) AJP needs to find a way to keep him
RP LHP Wandy Peralta (33, -0.9) can opt out of remaining three years, $13.15MM (contract also contains opt-outs after 2025 and 2026 seasons)
RP Carl "C.J." Edwards Jr. (33, 0.4)
The biggest ones are Kim, Scott, and Profar, who most likely will remain a Padre.
The rest of the rotation should remain intact.
#10 · October 4, 2024, 4:40 am
Money is key … my guess that after arbitration decisions Padres are just under the CBT. Profar by himself should put them over (and on multi-year deal). So probably about another $10MM max to avoid the 2nd tier penalty and not long term deals to keep room after 2025 to deal with extension of King, Arraez, and locking down Merrill long term while returning under the penalty level.
Profar multi-year, Higashioka, Solano, Peralta one year should be fine. Preller then hunts down the 2025 versions of Solano, Estrada to fill-in the blanks or waits for the trade deadline.