Quote from fenn68 on October 26, 2024, 7:35 am

Basically the players who will be under contract for 2025 will cost about the same as the end 2024 payroll. No idea if or how much the Padres will go up in payroll (don't think too much BUT almost have to go up to roll out another contender) given the BIG holes the FA will leave (primarily on offense) and the weak #4 and #5 SP slots.

Now, expect the top 6 position players to be better with the probability of full seasons (injury free) for Machado, Tatis, Bogaerts, and Arraez boost the efforts of Merrill and Crnenworth. That 6 can carry the team a long way during the regular season. However, the last three (C, LF, DH) are not ML quality ... clearly not playoff quality ... so how much will the Padres allocate for those holes vs #4 - #5 SP (where Vasquez, Waldron are the incumbents ...and that is not good). Consider:

C: Campusano (one of the worst defensive catchers who stopped hitting in the 2nd half) and Sullivan (old AAAA reserve)

LF and/or DH: Lockridge; Johnson; Ornelas; Wade; Rosario (four of five)

Would bet that if three of these players were "regulars", the Padres would have three slots in the batting order hitting near or under .200.

Even if the Padres go up $20MM (near top of the first level over the CBT) ... how may of these holes can be upgraded since even mediocre FA are not "cheap" ... going to be a lot of gambles by Preller.

Given that landscape of holes ... can the Padres even consider re-signing Profar ($10-14MM) or Kim ($8MM ... and not available to play to start the season).

So, to make more money available for adds ... seems trading from strength (Suarez) in inevitable. Beyond that ... Arraez at $14MM seems too costly for his production so he should be a trade chip (if anyone wants his salary). Without assuming the Padres would get a piece in return that would be a regular in 2025 the value is an additional $23MM to deploy and if assuming a basic over CBT of $20MM ... $43 MM to spend to cover the holes (plus the additional hole for Arraez) might elevate the entire roster to contender quality.

Might even put Profar back into the mix ... sort of a trade of Arraez ($14MM, 1 year) for Profar (< $14MM, maybe 3 years) but arguably more value for defense, power, OBP. Plus with no LF on the near term horizon ... fill a hole for the next few years.

Preller has work to do.

Quote from 3fingersplit on October 27, 2024, 10:07 am

I don't understand the whole "Arraez has no value" mentality...this team changed for the good when he arrived and was the lead off hitter that every team always seems to be looking for. His defense is certainly passable, he is average on the basepaths and he is a wizard at the plate because his bat to ball ability to hit to all fields has become a lost art.

How nice it must be as a manager to be able to plug in a batting champion at the top of the order every game and he is a good guy to boot...he wants to stay here, and AJ should do everything he can to make that happen...3 yrs. / 40-45 million?  Profar is a different problem...was this year a one-off type of season? Will he revert back to a 10-12 HR guy with a .230 BA that is an adequate left fielder?, he wants to stay here but how do you value him...3 yrs. / 35-40 million total?

What do you do behind the plate? Salas is at least 2 years away, Campusano is not a defensive catcher by any stretch and his bat went south because he changed his set up in what I consider a negative way starting with his hands forward then drawing back to get into a hitting position to get his hands moving forward...his hitting mechanics are just way to busy and makes him prone to being "Late" on a pitch so do you bring back Higgy and hope he doesn't go backwards at the plate and at what cost ...2 yrs. / 16-20 million ? Do you bring back Diaz and give him a whole season here?

What do you do with Solano, Peralta and Wade? Who should be extension targets...Cease, King and the bullpen...Starters are always at a premium and always seem to be in demand and it ALL starts on the mound.

Like Fenn said...AJ has plenty of work to do

Quote from fenn68 on October 27, 2024, 10:42 am

At 35 and that is not great for any catcher ... Higashioka does not have a track record of ML success (even 2024 was sort of middle of the pack) ... guessing $4MM is becomes his number. Maybe a bit less if they give him 2 years. At the end of his career he may just want the stability and being #1 for a contender in SoCal. Good bridge (considering the lack of alternatives) to Salas.

With Arraez (who I like) it is the money (as it is with Profar). They have to spend on a lot of upgrades this year and can they do that paying either Arraez or Profar what seems to be their projections. Then layer in next winter how the have to deploy money to cover the FA of Cease, King, Suarez, and Arraez if not traded. Would money be better allocated to a 4th/5th SP in 2024 (vs Vasquez / Waldron) and then 3 SP in 2025 behind Darvish and Musgrove (if fully recovered from TJ ... 1st year back can be rocky).

Quote from Randy Manese on October 27, 2024, 12:21 pm

Higashioka got his highest salary ever in arbitration last year, 2.18M.  Most Padres fans felt good about having Higgy behind the plate given the poor year by Campusano, but did Higgy really have that good a year to give him a substantial salary boost?

Offensively, with the exception of his unexpected HR surge and the impact it had on some of his stats, many of Higgy's stats were similar to years' past and some, like OBP, BA, Barrel rate % and Hard Hit% rate actually went down.  At 35, it is unlikely that this career power year is going to repeat so I'm thinking regression more toward 21-23 year stats where his OPS averaged 650 and wRC+ in the low 80's.  You might recall many Padres fans were calling for finding another catcher vice Higgy until he started bombing those HRs in June; let's hope he still has some impact in his bat even if it is less frequent.

If we aren't going to get much out of Higgy offensively, what about defensively?  Surprisingly, Baseball Savant ranked Higgy near the bottom in Blocked Balls and Pitch Framing.  Not surprisingly, Campusano ranked in the bottom two with - Will Smith (Dodgers)!  Where Smith got his value in Baseball Savant was throwing out runners, where he was #1; Higgy and Campusano ranked slightly below the middle of the pack in this stat.  So, while it is widely acknowledged that Higgy does a great job handling pitchers his other stats don't blow anyone away.

I'm pretty sure Higgy is well aware of his strengths and weaknesses and he believes he has found a home in San Diego for possibly the remaining years of his career.  Further, with the above summaries of offense and defense, demand for Higgy as a 35 year old #1 catcher and salary at more 4-5M is likely very low.  Therefore, Higgy will want to return to San Diego and even if he gets less than 4M, he'll be happy to settle for a 1-1.5M raise for a team that believes in him but really can't afford to put much money in their catchers because the budget is so thin.  I'm calling Higgy back to San Diego on a 1 year contract for somewhere between 3.25 and 3.5M.

Quote from MrPadre19 on October 27, 2024, 3:35 pm

Signing Sasaki is key to ‘25 IMO.

Since there won’t be a bidding war per the rules he will just choose where he wants to play….”if” he indeed comes over.

What is the max he can get and how does that work in terms of length of contract etc?

 

Quote from fenn68 on October 27, 2024, 8:36 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on October 27, 2024, 3:35 pm

Signing Sasaki is key to ‘25 IMO.

Since there won’t be a bidding war per the rules he will just choose where he wants to play….”if” he indeed comes over.

What is the max he can get and how does that work in terms of length of contract etc?

 

As with any amateur signing … he falls under 6 years control with the first three at minimum then three of ARB. (So financially great for any team).

As for the “bonus” to sign … any team can offer their max allocation (and actually trade for a bit more). To start there are 8 teams at the max allocation ($7,5MM) then anther 6 teams ($6.9MM) then the Padres fall into the third group (12 teams) at $6.2MM.

So, a lot of potential bidders out there will more money to offer. However, IF Sasaki does become available he is leaving a big payday by coming out early … that might mean that difference in bonus offers may not be as important as playing for the team he wants … probably a contender that could get him to the playoffs ASAP.

Not sure on the rules here but at some point before the six year control ends I guess he could be offered a “mega contract” extension … as any other rookie. At some point in his rookie season? MLB likely is watching closely that such a deal for an extension is not part of the initial negotiation. BUT Wink-Wink,Nod-Nod under the table??????

Quote from Randy Manese on October 27, 2024, 10:36 pm

Looking at one of the few comparable cases, the Angels kept Ohtani at the league minimum for his first three years and probably rightly so because his batting starts were good but not as good as Jackson Merrill's was in his first year.  In fact, because he was out with injury much of the short 2020 season, Ohtani came into the 2021 season asking for only 3.3M in arbitration (the Angels initially countered with 2.5M).   Angels then got Ohtani to give up an arbitration year by his agreeing to a 2 year contract for 8.5M (what a steal!) for what turned out to be almost back to back MVP years in 2021 and 2022 prior to his monster last arbitration number in 2023 of 30M after yet another MVP year.   From the above pattern, it didn't seem the Angels were constrained in paying Ohtani a higher amount earlier in his career - he just hadn't earned it yet despite being a two-way player when healthy.

Further, I know of no rules prohibiting contract extensions for international signees - Atlanta did that with great results; White Sox did that with not so great results.  The real question is whether Chiba is willing to let him go after missing out on the Japan Series in 2024 or will they try to squeeze at least one year out of him?  If available, the question is who has Sasaki's ear and we can only hope Darvish and Nomo have somehow influenced him to pick San Diego over the many contenders and venues he could choose to start his career.

 

Quote from Jeremy Hill on October 28, 2024, 1:28 am

Sasaki would be a game changer. I'm still not convinced he's actually coming over. Maybe we'll hear something definitive after the Japanese championship is decided. It could also be a situation where we may want to be careful what we wish for. It would be a dream come true if he came over early and chose us. It would be a nightmare if he went to the Dodgers.

Quote from MrPadre19 on October 28, 2024, 3:51 am

dodgers will(if all recover) have a ‘25 rotation of:

Ohtani/Yamamoto/Glasnow/May/Kershaw/Gonsolin/Ryan without Sasaki.

He may still want to be part of that….allowing LA to trade or stash a couple arms.

Yikes.