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2025 Padres Season
#91 · October 24, 2024, 10:58 am
Jim Bowden just came out with his top 45 FA with contract predictions (and good team fits). For interest:
#23 ... Scott (LHRP) ... $60MM/4 years ($15MM AAV) ... he is gone with a lot of potential bidders
#24 ... Profar (LF) ... $44MM / 3 years (close to the last list I saw that pegged him at $42MM/3 years) ... of note he only listed the Padres and the Twins as "best fits" which "might" suggest a limited market
#27 ... Kim (SS) ... "pillow contract" at $10MM with incentives ... besides the Padres he noted PITT, MIL, and LAD as best fits ... can't see PITT or MILW even with their need taking the money gamble for a partial season. Oddly he did not suggest SF. Actually that "pillow contract" might appeal to the Padres given only a one year commitment with the total being based on an incentive of games played and should appeal to Boras getting him back to FA after 2025 while allowing Kim to rehab / rebuild his value in a familiar environment with a familiar rehab staff. Guessing no and gamble the $10MM on pitching.
Others who he suggested may be a good fit with the Padres:
Nick Martinez ... $40MM/3 years ($13.3MM AAV) ... he wants to start (clearly that is a Padres option) and he impressed as a Padres and has been effective since he departed
Shane Bieber ... no $ suggestion but low base with options ... returning from TJ but have to assume a good relationship with Niebla ... Preller type low cost gamble. (I would bet he returns to Cleveland)
MatthewBoyd ... $10MM / 1 year ... not great but good playoffs ... $/1 year may appeal to Preller for a gamble
Sugano (35 from Japan) ... no idea on contract but not aligned with many clubs and at 35 should be at a lower price point
Matt Snell ... $105/3 years ($35MM AAV) ... does not seem workable for the Padres and really not sure approach to playing fits the "new" Padres under Shildt.
Note none on his list was "cheap" with the better options long term and over $20MM with the better approaching $30MM or more.
He had Sasaki as his #3 (I think) but hedged on whether he actually will become available ... so ???
I can see a Padre signing of Profar (at slightly a lower price for the 3 years) ... not Kim or Scott. then with Darvish, Cease, and King holding #1-3 SP slots ... maybe gamble lower end with Sugano and Boyd ... to make a run at #4-5 but would not rule out a run at Bieber (risk but high upside) or Martinez (Padres know his character as a major plus). Not all four but potentially some combo of two. Considering Cease and King are FA after 2025, Padres may be comfortable with a multi year deal(s) if the AAV is right.
#92 · October 24, 2024, 11:59 am
Not so crazy an idea.
Tigers have a lot of room under the 2025 CBT but definitely need a solid SP. I'm offering Cease and and Matsui (or another player depending on what kind of salary the Tigers want to take on) for Torkelson and Maeda, providing Tigers pick upat least half the salary of Maeda. Torkelson is power before average but maybe we can get him to .250; at .250 can be a contributor to the offense. Maeda is one year from free agency and if Tigers pay least half of his 10M salary in 2025, would be a pretty good pick-up for the #4 or 5 spot in the rotation. It doesn't have to be Maeda but I'd like to get some kind of pitching back in this trade.
Further, I'd try to expand the trade and have them take on Cronenworth for one of their young LH hitting middle infielders. Cronenworth will give them stability for a young team and excellent defense around the infield; I believe Croney would love to play in Michigan. This still allows Tigers to try to land a RH hitter for their line-up that hits more for average than Torkelson.
Doubt if this happens but if it does can move Bogaerts back to 2b and re-sign Kim plus trying to lure in Snell. It's the off-season - anything seems possible!
#93 · October 24, 2024, 1:34 pm
Quote from Randy Manese on October 24, 2024, 11:59 amNot so crazy an idea.
Tigers have a lot of room under the 2025 CBT but definitely need a solid SP. I'm offering Cease and and Matsui (or another player depending on what kind of salary the Tigers want to take on) for Torkelson and Maeda, providing Tigers pick upat least half the salary of Maeda. Torkelson is power before average but maybe we can get him to .250; at .250 can be a contributor to the offense. Maeda is one year from free agency and if Tigers pay least half of his 10M salary in 2025, would be a pretty good pick-up for the #4 or 5 spot in the rotation. It doesn't have to be Maeda but I'd like to get some kind of pitching back in this trade.
Further, I'd try to expand the trade and have them take on Cronenworth for one of their young LH hitting middle infielders. Cronenworth will give them stability for a young team and excellent defense around the infield; I believe Croney would love to play in Michigan. This still allows Tigers to try to land a RH hitter for their line-up that hits more for average than Torkelson.
Doubt if this happens but if it does can move Bogaerts back to 2b and re-sign Kim plus trying to lure in Snell. It's the off-season - anything seems possible!
Really? Detroit would jump at a Cease / Matsui (about $20MM) for Maeda / Torkelson (about $13MM) with both Cease and Maeda FA after the season. Detroit would probably add some decent prospects to get that done.
Past 3 years Maeda has struggled to just pitch over 100 innings in each year with ERAs over 4. Cease pitches more innings and carries and ERA in the low 3s. Torkelson can't hit, can't run, can't field ... just power ... the kind of player the Padres have move away from to get bat to ball skills.
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lafnboy13
#94 · October 24, 2024, 1:51 pm
Many are really down on Cronenworth (and his contract) ... I am not in that camp IF the Padres can play him at 2B.
Listened to a "stats" type about Cronenworth's value ... vs his going forward $11-12MM contract. Essentially in his analysis with Cronenworth's 2024 offense and his 2B defense (if he played there full time) he would have been a 3 WAR 2B ... and that is top tier. Using the 1 WAR worth about $8-9MM ... Cronenworth would be producing a lot of "excess value" as a 2B. If he just carried that for the next 3 years that would balance out the remaining 2 years of his contract if he fall off.
For me ... Kim with his injury is not worth spending money on in 2025 gambling he will be back (and at full strength) by mid-season. Although not my favorite at SS I would go with Bogaerts (should make him happy) and Cronenworth at 2B (max value). With Arraez around fills DH/1B. Then beat the bushes for a RHH 1B/DH (I could live with another run with Solano ... the low cost option).
Since I can see them resigning Profar ... and if so, the Padres could go for a RHH LF and swing Profar to 1B where he would be better defense than Arraez and gets Profar out of LF where his range is limited. Sort of a win-win. Expanding the add search to OF, 1B, DH just gives the Preller more flexibility to land the best player / best deal.
#95 · October 24, 2024, 2:00 pm
Pretty harsh on Torkelson, who some baseball evaluators rated as high as 60 Hit and 70 Power just a couple of years ago. Yeah, probably they overrated him, but he still could surprise as a very low cost option at 1b; if you were excited about what Martorella could do, then you have to be excited if you landed Torkelson.
The objective for "84 Padres" was try to free up enough CBT cap money to sign Snell vice pay Cease in his final year before arbitration. Just an exercise at throwing darts at the dart board to try to do that. Maeda was just a toss in to try to give Padres other options besides Waldron and Vasquez - no big deal, doesn't have to be him. As I said, a trade such as this is likely not going to happen because the idea of getting Snell back is probably beyond our reach.
#96 · October 24, 2024, 2:24 pm
Seen a lot of numbers for Arraez in his last arbitration year, including Arraez himself hinting that he'd like to get a long term extension. Not sure whether it matters if the Padres CBT number is to stay below 241M or somewhere below the next 261M tier. It does seem, however, that it would not be in the Padres best interest to commit to Arraez when other more impactful players/options could arise in the future.
If we go back to Arraez recent salary history, he came into the 2023 season with a 6.1M salary and after a superb season, asked for 12M in arbitration. Marlins, however, were successful with their number of 10.6M. After a season where all his numbers were down from 2023, don't see Arraez asking for money in the high 14M, i.e., 14.6 to 14.9 - I'm thinking 14M max. The Padres will likely offer 13M (could include incentives), which is still a 22% raise Arraez' 2024 salary. Since AJP rarely goes to arbitration hearings, could see Arraez take the increase and make a huge salary push toward his FA year in 2026. If Arraez does become that important cog in the Padres offense, may see an extension mid-season. That's my best guess for Arraez salary in 2025.
#97 · October 24, 2024, 3:24 pm
Quote from Randy Manese on October 24, 2024, 2:24 pmSeen a lot of numbers for Arraez in his last arbitration year, including Arraez himself hinting that he'd like to get a long term extension. Not sure whether it matters if the Padres CBT number is to stay below 241M or somewhere below the next 261M tier. It does seem, however, that it would not be in the Padres best interest to commit to Arraez when other more impactful players/options could arise in the future.
If we go back to Arraez recent salary history, he came into the 2023 season with a 6.1M salary and after a superb season, asked for 12M in arbitration. Marlins, however, were successful with their number of 10.6M. After a season where all his numbers were down from 2023, don't see Arraez asking for money in the high 14M, i.e., 14.6 to 14.9 - I'm thinking 14M max. The Padres will likely offer 13M (could include incentives), which is still a 22% raise Arraez' 2024 salary. Since AJP rarely goes to arbitration hearings, could see Arraez take the increase and make a huge salary push toward his FA year in 2026. If Arraez does become that important cog in the Padres offense, may see an extension mid-season. That's my best guess for Arraez salary in 2025.
Seems about right ... just not sure how much Arraez' agent will push up given he has come off one of his poorest seasons (yet, still one the NL batting title). Also, hard to try to out guess what the arbitrators use for the final call. Has to be in the back of their heads that the arbitrator last year went with MIA at $10.6MM after a 3.3 WAR year that followed a 2.7 WAR season ... even for the 2nd ARB that seems low. Now that he followed it up with a 1.1 WAR harder to convince an arbitrator even though a 7.1 WAR over 3 years would suggest the $14.6 is "reasonable".
A good base for compromise and Preller going to get a deal done ... and that something around $14MM is where it ends up.
After 2025 ... assuming he will want a further raise and long term deal ... I let him go via FA thinking his skill set is not worth that price to the Padres who have (will have) more critical needs.
#98 · October 24, 2024, 3:38 pm
Quote from Randy Manese on October 24, 2024, 2:00 pmPretty harsh on Torkelson, who some baseball evaluators rated as high as 60 Hit and 70 Power just a couple of years ago. Yeah, probably they overrated him, but he still could surprise as a very low cost option at 1b; if you were excited about what Martorella could do, then you have to be excited if you landed Torkelson.
The objective for "84 Padres" was try to free up enough CBT cap money to sign Snell vice pay Cease in his final year before arbitration. Just an exercise at throwing darts at the dart board to try to do that. Maeda was just a toss in to try to give Padres other options besides Waldron and Vasquez - no big deal, doesn't have to be him. As I said, a trade such as this is likely not going to happen because the idea of getting Snell back is probably beyond our reach.
Snell is the better pitcher but at around $35MM AAV on a long term deal that will get in the way of filling the holes now and coming from FA and a Merrill extension vs. $13MM for 1 year of Cease does not pencil out for me. The difference is not that great and the money differential is needed elsewhere.
Padres do need better options than Vasquez and Waldron ... while keeping Darvish, Cease, King it tact. A "reliable" and good 4th pitcher where the money is spent then for the 5th a scramble of some arms with risk but upside at a low cost. Always have mid-season to "fix" if not working. Do think Vasquez will get a long run for #5 (maybe Waldron but not on my preferred list). If not a gamble FA will like to see in ST what Cruz (L) and Baez have to offer as SP ... maybe enough for mid-season call-ups taking some pressure off getting it right out of ST.
#99 · October 24, 2024, 3:47 pm
Just from the perspective of likely having a number of teams wanting to improve their pen (maybe every team) ... think one year (everyone will assume he opts out) of Suarez at $9MM would appeal and he could be the Padres' #1 trade chip.
Other than saving $9MM to redeploy ... might get either a decent filler ML hitter (1B/C/ etc) or a near ready minor leaguer (not a Top 100 type) who may fit into those roles ... keeping in mind the ML bench for offense the really thin and same in the upper minors.
#100 · October 25, 2024, 7:21 am
Hard to read whether the Padres' payroll will be constrained by "cash flow" or CBT considerations but all indications appear to lead me to think a "controlled" increase over 2024 is in the plan.
The good news is that the Padres re-set under the CBT in 2024 ... so will only pay a 20% penalty on the overage in the first threshold ($0 - $20MM) ... max penalty in that first level is $4MM and that should be manageable.
Now considering current contracts ... estimated arbitration decisions ... and not signing any FA ... I have the Padres sitting about $2MM under the CBT. Being "liberal" in may thinking ... the Padres will spend up to $22MM on adds and take that $4MM penalty. Separate calculation if they trade an existing contract (e.g. Suarez, Arraez, etc.).
Assuming not ... just signing Profar will consume half of the funding. Not signing Profar but signing a mid-range pitcher would do the same. Either option will push other signings into the low cost / high risk mode. Does that scenario force Preller into trading a contract (probably a FA to be in 2025)?
As it stands need a LF / C / 1B-DH and SP. The only real strength is RP and fortunately that is always in demand. So, moving Suarez ($9MM) to redeploy salary fits BUT possible to go a different route and trade Adam (or another) and actually get in return a player in a position of need.
Think we may be having some interesting discussions on fringe / high risk adds to fill the obvious holes.