Quote from Jeremy Hill on October 28, 2024, 8:30 am

River Ryan had Tommy John. He won't pitch much if at all next year.

From the Padres standpoint I'm expecting a scaled down version of last off-season. We may have to make some cost cutting moves. I don't think we'll be major players with domestic free agents. I think AJ will be looking for value plays. Maybe he makes an aggressive move to bring in a starter then just tries to wait out the market. Maybe he gets creative with another deal for a reliever that wants to start. Our biggest signing could be an international player again. Sugano seems like a good fit. Hye-Seong Kim is going to be posted. He was Ha-Seong Kim's old double play partner in Korea. He's supposed to be a good contact hitter with solid speed and emerging power. He's also supposed to be a strong defender. He could be a value play at SS. We wouldn't even have to change the chant much.

I think the biggest moves could come via trade again. He's probably not going to pull off another Cease deal. He might be able to pick up an affordable arm from a team like the Rays or Yankees. The way AJ operates I'm sure he'll have conversations we would never think of. It's going to be tough, but I also think this is where AJ thrives.

Ultimately I think you need to feel comfortable with the team you put together without Sasaki. If he falls into your lap late in the off-season that's a happy bonus.

Quote from fenn68 on October 28, 2024, 4:10 pm

At this point we really have no idea on the payroll max for the Padres in 2025 (and how much the league is involved with the Padres debt servicing requirements) but find it hard to believe the Padres can / will go beyond the first tier of penalties in the CBT (have some doubts they will go that high).

So just as a framework:

$240MM is “roughly” the CBT cost of the roster (after ARBs and FA departing)

$242MM is the threshold for CBT … so only $2MM to breach into penalties

$20MM first tier and that creates a $4MM penalty 20% of overage … that is money out

So optimistically in my view is maybe $20-22MM to deploy on upgrades:

C … now Campusano and Sullivan

LF … now one of Ornelas, Lockridge, Johnson, Wade

DH … (assuming Arraez 1B) … one of Ornelas, Lockridge, Johnson, Wade, Rosario, McCoy

SP … now Vasquez and Waldron for #4 and #5

Bench … now leftovers from above

In this day and age $20MMish is not much to address all those upgrades with any real quality … do they “spread it around” for minor upgrades everywhere and rely on the core team or do they go bigger on a couple of adds and take a gamble with the above / minor FA for the other slots?

For me it does make a case of dealing Suarez for $9MM more (knowing he will go FA after the season) while still having a strong pen. Don’t see the money to sign Profar and even though it adds another hole … trading Arraez at $14MM might make sense to create a bigger money pool … for better quality in multiple slots.

Preller has quite a challenge.

Quote from Randy Manese on October 28, 2024, 11:52 pm

With the World Series looking like it will end before Halloween, we are looking at some serious time before the November 40 man rosters have to be set.  Most projections for how close the Padres will be to the first CBT ceiling of 241M if they sign all their arbitration eligible players is pretty much what Fenn has outlined above.   What is not being said but surely thought about in players' minds is that the Padres (even after the Musgrove injury) had the best chance to defeat the Dodgers and knock them out of the playoffs and it particularly stings if the Dodgers are the World Series champs.  This is AJP's big hole card plus the fact he doesn't have to put out his arbitration numbers until after the January 15 international signing period begins.  By holding these numbers close to his vest, it also puts the squeeze on FAs who may want to return to the Padres if they get a deal that might not be optimum but is not insulting.

So AJP's strategy to pull together a representative Padres in 2025 will likely be evident before the end of January.  By that time he will have hunted down low cost FA (mostly signing them to minor league contracts) and traded what little he has to trade in order to better distribute the available money under the CBT for a more complete team.  If he can't get the team under whatever level ownership has set for 2025 (and I agree that we might just have to go to the next tier of 261M), then (more) trades may happen to get the Padres to the right competitive mix.  Undoubtedly, some players will not be happy with their fate or their team-mates' fates, but Padres don't have the deep pockets of the Dodgers and Yankees so that is the reality of the MLB, unlike the NFL or NBA or other professional leagues with salary caps.

 

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on October 29, 2024, 5:44 am

Quote from fenn68 on October 28, 2024, 5:05 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on October 28, 2024, 3:51 am

dodgers will(if all recover) have a ‘25 rotation of:

Ohtani/Yamamoto/Glasnow/May/Kershaw/Gonsolin/Ryan without Sasaki.

He may still want to be part of that….allowing LA to trade or stash a couple arms.

Yikes.

 

 

Some suggestion that the LAD will consider some type of 6 man rotation to accommodate Ohtani / Yamamoto whose history in Japan is pitching once a week. So, Sasaki would fit that idea … and also help his transition to MLB.

Would also add Kershaw is on his last lap, May / Glasnow / Gonsolin are significant injury concerns, and Ryan is unproven. So, IF Sasaki is looking at the full 6 year control period … LAD appeals (along with being an organization that can / will pay the big bucks on an extension). For the same reasons, makes sense for the LAD pursuing Sasaki.

I realize if any team understands the importance of more than 5 SP's it's the dodgers.My point was more that ALL teams can afford Sasaki and ALL teams would make room for him,but he has to consider a lot of things when he makes his decision and who/how many SP's a team has will be one.

With Darvish as his hero we just have to hope that that means the most to him rather than being in the same rotation as Ohtani AND Yamamoto.

Then of course there are the "other" 28 teams that will make their pitch.

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on October 31, 2024, 9:25 am

MLBTradeRumors came out with their Top 35 trade candidates for this winter ... only saw one Padre in Luis Arraez down at #17. Usual logic ... Padres have a lot of needs and could use his projected $14.6MM more strategically across the roster.

Expected to see Suarez ... did not ... maybe they just did not see the Padres in that mind set.

Quote from fenn68 on October 31, 2024, 11:44 am

Roster Resource current estimate of the Padres’ 2025 CBT Payroll is at $243.3MM … that is OVER the first tier threshold by $2.3 MM without signing any FA (ours or others).

I have no reason to believe the Padres will go wildly over in spending … maybe a bit more but nothing like in the past.

So, to fill all the holes with even “average” ML quality … think it is inevitable that Preller makes some trades to drop payroll (not so much to get a return). Because they likely have some level of market … Arraez and Suarez seem to be easiest to trade and clean payroll.

Quote from Randy Manese on October 31, 2024, 12:50 pm

I tried working a CBT payroll under 241M and still keeping a competitive squad but couldn't do it even going on the cheap for some of the arbitration cases.  Best I could come up with assuming not making any trades and signing just Profar and Higashioka was around 252M.  AJP will have to get really creative!  Please do not trade Salas or De Vries!  Much as I'd hate to lose some up and coming pitchers, the future is always now because the windows of opportunity are not many.  GO PADRES!

Quote from fenn68 on October 31, 2024, 1:27 pm

Quote from Randy Manese on October 31, 2024, 12:50 pm

I tried working a CBT payroll under 241M and still keeping a competitive squad but couldn't do it even going on the cheap for some of the arbitration cases.  Best I could come up with assuming not making any trades and signing just Profar and Higashioka was around 252M.  AJP will have to get really creative!  Please do not trade Salas or De Vries!  Much as I'd hate to lose some up and coming pitchers, the future is always now because the windows of opportunity are not many.  GO PADRES!

I doubt the prospect pitchers will have that much trade value at this stage … but … the real problem is trading for anyone (of quality) who does not carry a salary that sends the payroll in the wrong direction. Not seeing a route to trading for a good ML player who is at league minimum (and agree Salas / DeVries should not be in play).

That is why dealing Arraez / Suarez for salary relief (would clear about $23MM) seems the most feasible.  Have RP to attempt to cover Suarez and Arraez’ loss would be a problem but that could / should be offset by the core offense and quality of the rest of the pen then filling around them with upgrades in the range of Solano, Peralta, Higashioka, etc.

Still can’t see a roster under the CBT in the end.

Not a lot of “cheap” FA that are reliable (think Odor, Carpenter, Cruz types).

Even if they go over by, let’s say $20MM and make the Arraez / Suarez trades … that probably still does not bring in any major pieces. One strategy if the payroll is really capped … is start the season holding back some money with a team that can keep them in contention for the playoffs to the trade deadline then target that money for deadline adds in areas of key needs at that time. Pay only 1/3 of the contracts.

Can “fringe” players added to Machado, Tatis, Bogaerts,, Merrill, Cronenworth … Darvish, Cease, King … win enough April - July to be in playoff contention? If they think so, that may be a strategy … might even lessen the need for the Arraez / Suarez trades this winter.

Since winning the World Series is a result of winning 3 and 5 game series to get there … and that is just being hot (or the other team being cold) … might not get too concerned about building the best 162 game roster … just a roster that is “good enough”.

Quote from WindsorUK on November 3, 2024, 1:49 am

Anyone in on Walker Buehler?

Is there a good chance he signs a 1 year make good deal somewhere? To increase chance of big contract in '26? He's only, what, 30 now? Puts up good numbers next year, sets up well for long term deal.

Guys usually look better year 2 after TJ.