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2024 Winter Meetings Dec 9-12
#61 · December 12, 2024, 6:49 am
Quote from MrPadre19 on December 12, 2024, 5:44 amIf the mandate is indeed to lower payroll you could trade X and eat some $ and sign a stop gap,defense first cheap SS(Nick Ahmed/Amed Rosario?) and use what you can to get SP/C.
Hopefully we only need someone for 1 1/2 seasons.
Not saying it's ideal....we just don't know how firm the "lower payroll" mandate is.
Just to hedge on the concept of "lower payroll" ... seems from the reports that it more of a don't "increase payroll from current status" (which is up from 2024) and only a couple of million over CBT ... cash payroll will already be up $30-40MM. "Lower payroll" does give the wrong negative feel on direction.
What I interpret is new adds require offsetting deletes ... and to "balance" a competitive roster need to consider dealing a Bogaerts, Cease, Arraez, Suarez, Cronenworth to make room for new bodies (including replacements for the departures). Basically Preller is playing a zero sum game this winter BUT at the base the cash payroll is going up.
Note the payroll increase is rooted in Arraez getting around $14-15MM vs near $0 in 2024, big Arb increases for King and Cease, and built in cash increase for Tatis ($9MM more). Also looking ahead Machado gets about a $10MM cash increase in 2026. The ups clearly off set the downs from Profar, Kim, et al.
#62 · December 12, 2024, 7:37 am
Yeah it's not so much lower payroll as it is don't raise it.
Which is difficult to do when you need a LF,C and SP or two.
So signing Roki is HUGELY important....then it's gonna have to be via trade.
Either dollar for dollar or to dump some payroll to add the same amount elsewhere.
Good thing our GM is pretty good at this stuff
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fenn68
#63 · December 12, 2024, 9:14 am
On a personal level, I really want X to be better than he's been. He's very easy to like and very easy to cheer for. Also, it goes without saying, but it obviously would be best for the team if he performed.
But...
X was signed in a different era with a different owner. Sure, Pappa Pete talked about a short term "surge" in payroll and all that, but I have a hard time believing he'd be on board with the level of austerity we've been forced into last year and this. And in this new era of ownership, it just doesn't make sense to have pieces that only fit a $250m payroll on a team limited to the $150-200m range. Considering all that, combined with X being (by far) the least important "big" contract we have (from a fan perspective), you gotta think that management (let alone ownership) would be sorely tempted to shed that salary if presented with the opportunity.
#64 · December 12, 2024, 12:19 pm
Winter Meetings are over and all AJP did was sign a Rule V player. But trade and FA buzz is just beginning. Remember, Cease was traded for just for the 2024 season. Much can still happen.
The Padres need to address corner OF, C and SP.
Profar still has not signed with any team and could still sign with the Padres like he did earlier this year and he wants to stay. The Padres may get a catcher through a trade. But, who could they get?
The Padres have SP Darvish, King, and Cease. With Musgrove out, the Padres will need two SP. LHP Martín Pérez has yet to sign with a team and still could re-sign with the Padres. I am hoping for Roki Sasaki. RP LHP Tanner Scott has not yet sign with any team. Any chance he could re-sign with Padres at a reasonable price? There has been talk of converting a RP into a SP.
#65 · December 12, 2024, 1:20 pm
WRT Tanner Scott, most industry guesses I've seen for his FA salary is in the 13-15M annual range, which is too much for the Padres limited budget; most teams are looking at him as their closer. Padres are likely to go the other way with RP, offering Suarez and other higher priced RP arms to clear some space to address other priorities.
Both Perez and Profar could come back but both would probably have to give San Diego a home discount. Don't be surprised if Diaz comes back at catcher signing at at a relatively low 2025 salary and a higher salary tied to a player option for 2026. Valenzuela should also be added to the roster as another catcher option before spring training but likely will spend most of the season in El Paso.
Besides Waldron and Vasquez coming back to compete for a SP spot, it was recently mentioned that Morejon, Hoeing and Kolek may be in the running to be converted to SP and don't sleep on Rule 5 pick-up Juan Nunez, raw but has some nasty stuff. Don't want to jinx talking about other SP possibilities but I've got everything crossed that something positive will happen on 15 January 2025.
#66 · December 13, 2024, 6:17 am
Quote from fenn68 on December 11, 2024, 12:47 pmQuote from MrPadre19 on December 11, 2024, 12:17 pmQuote from lafnboy13 on December 11, 2024, 11:58 amWe got SP Nunez from the O's In Rule 5
Kids got great numbers....and a high walk rate.
Do your thing Niebla!
With on 33 on the roster this is a decent gamble to assess Nunez through ST … if does not work out send him back and only lose something like $50K net.
If he does work out as did Kolek as the 13 pitcher to eat innings in blowouts / non pressure situations that is OK. Some protection vs ST injuries and maybe allows Preller some room to deal a RP (or two) to fill open position slots. RP of any quality are always in demand.
Did hear a comment that although Nunez was a starter in the minors with a big K rate and big BB rate … many seem to think his stuff will play even better out of the pen is shorter stints. Get that command in line and ?????
MLBPipeline has dropped Nunez in as #11 on the Padres Top 30 prospects ... ahead of RP prospects Pena and Rodriguez (both have good projection as RP near term).
So, maybe we should pay attention in ST on his potential to make the ML roster ... and with those three plus Kokek, Reynonds, Jacob, and Brito ... maybe that potetential depth makes it more feasible for Preller moving a RP (thinking Suarez) to add to fill a need at C, LF, 1B/DH.
#67 · December 13, 2024, 8:58 am
If Nunez is fully recovered from his shoulder issues in 2024, will likely be tried as a SP first - hoping for a recovery as well as Isiah Lowe had last year. Niebla can probably tinker with Nunez' delivery/release point to improve his control enough to allow him to get through 5 innings; if not, fallback to a bullpen option ala Kolek last year. Health will be the main concern and we should know very early in ST whether Nunez can go without any limitations.
Concur that we potentially have enough talent in the bullpen to move Suarez but can we get enough in return to make it worthwhile?Seems like we have to wait to see which high leverage RPs falter/incur injury for contending teams in ST to get a decent return otherwise may have to wait until the trading deadline approaches. The two opt-outs in Suarez' contract do make his less attractive so probably have to lower our expectations on the return - more of a salary dump? If the latter, and CBT space needed to sign Profar or invest toward a SP, then lets go for it!
#68 · December 13, 2024, 9:45 am
Quote from Randy Manese on December 13, 2024, 8:58 amIf Nunez is fully recovered from his shoulder issues in 2024, will likely be tried as a SP first - hoping for a recovery as well as Isiah Lowe had last year. Niebla can probably tinker with Nunez' delivery/release point to improve his control enough to allow him to get through 5 innings; if not, fallback to a bullpen option ala Kolek last year. Health will be the main concern and we should know very early in ST whether Nunez can go without any limitations.
Concur that we potentially have enough talent in the bullpen to move Suarez but can we get enough in return to make it worthwhile?Seems like we have to wait to see which high leverage RPs falter/incur injury for contending teams in ST to get a decent return otherwise may have to wait until the trading deadline approaches. The two opt-outs in Suarez' contract do make his less attractive so probably have to lower our expectations on the return - more of a salary dump? If the latter, and CBT space needed to sign Profar or invest toward a SP, then lets go for it!
NYY are trading for Devin Williams from MILW for Cortes (LHSP ... last season 175 innings , ERA about 3.75) and a minor league 2B in AAA (but pretty good). Williams had some injuries and was poor in the playoffs. Does take a potential closer out of the market
Both Williams and Cortes are FA after the season and make about the same money (in ARB).
So what does that suggest a return for Suarez ($10MM who may opt out)? The demand should be there at some level. IF the Padres only demand prospects (at least one a decent ML ready player) a needy team should play. Then use the payroll saving to address targeted FA.
Adam, Estrada, Reynolds are are legit options for high leverage work and the need for a C, LF, 1B/DH has no internal options. I expect Suarez to opt out (his cash pay drops from $10MM to $8MM in 2026), so should try to recoup something while at the same time redeploying money to greater needs.
#69 · December 13, 2024, 11:38 am
I doubt AJ wants to do much of anything until Sasaki signs with us (someone).
#70 · December 13, 2024, 11:49 am
Quote from MrPadre19 on December 13, 2024, 11:38 amI doubt AJ wants to do much of anything until Sasaki signs with us (someone).
Agree since Preller never is rushed to deal (likes to be the seller with the last quality pieces) unless he gets "overwhelmed" ... but that may only be a Cease trade issue. Arraez and/or Suarez may not be tied to Sasaki.