Quote from fenn68 on December 11, 2024, 12:56 pm

Padres were active in the minor league phase or Rule 5 with three adds:

Huizi … RHP

Snider … OF

Thomas … C

they needed bodies for AAA/AA so little more.

Oddly they lost a LHP name Widger who they just signed a couple of weeks ago and apparently did not put on the AAA roster.

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 11, 2024, 12:58 pm

Quote from fenn68 on December 11, 2024, 12:34 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 11, 2024, 12:22 pm

They probably wanted Salas or DeVries + and neither side would budge

 

 

Boston had a strong system and not sure the Padres could have matched that deal for Crochet.

Teel (MLB #25), Montgomery (MLB #54), Meidroth (Boston #11), and Gonzalas (Boston #14).

Not sure that even Salas and DeVries (both in A ball) would have worked vs Boston.

Yeah I'm glad we bowed out.

Bos gave up their last two first round picks for a guy with injury concerns and,IMO,his motion just screams injury.

Hopefully he has a long successful career....but man Bos has traded away some really good players the last few years.

Plus they're in a Division with the NYY,Bal & TB.

They could improve and still finish 3rd or 4th

 

Good luck

 

Quote from Jeremy Hill on December 11, 2024, 2:33 pm

Quote from fenn68 on December 11, 2024, 8:22 am

Quote from Jeremy Hill on December 11, 2024, 7:56 am

Record attendance with a team that was one win away from taking out the champs and we're talking about trading an ace and cutting payroll. The difference between an owner that treated the team like a passion and the new decision making group who have taken it back to a business is becoming increasingly clear. Just about everything went right for the team last year. Handcuffing AJ and asking him to do it again seems like a recipe for disappointment. They should bite the bullet and commit to a higher payroll for the next season or 2. Pare it back when Salas, De Vries and others are ready to make an impact. Prove that they weren't just paying lip service with all the talk about carrying on Peter's legacy. They won't, but they should.

Actually not planning to cut payroll … from a CASH standpoint they will naturally go up $30-40MM just from arbitration decisions and existing contract increases. From a CBT perspective they are already on track to exceed 2024 end number (and over the first threshold).

I would not ignore the league enforcing the debt service rules that apparently triggered the major drop in payroll for 2024 … that may keep the Padres ownership at about the current payroll level until that is resolved. Plus the Padres are already sitting in the top 5 +/- payrolls going into 2025.

I can recall Siedler before 2023 saying that the elevated payroll was not sustainable … basically taking the all in approach for a short run window (2023-24) … then settle at around #10 in payroll … they are still exceeding that view by Siedler.

Still think the Padres can make the playoffs with just MINOR tinkering in 2025 but the bottom probably would fall out in 2026. So the logic for dealing Cease or Arraez or King (expensive FA after 2025) is not just payroll flexibility but adding key (lower cost) assets that make 2026 and beyond competitive. Soto 2.0 … that worked last year with the Padres making the playoffs with only injuries potentially hampering a longer playoff run.

 

When has the league ever actually enforced debt service rules? How many of us even knew such a thing existed before the report came out? From what I've read anywhere from 1/4-1/3 of teams in the league are in violation on average in any given year. We just never hear about it and the league never does anything. It wasn't even the first time we had been in violation in recent years. It just wasn't reported on.

Personally, I think Peter pissed some of the other owners off by spending big money as a "small market" team. He made other "small market" owners who pretend they can't afford to spend more while raking in revenue sharing money look bad and Manfred was happy to help run cover for them. That's why we heard about debt compliance issues and a payroll loan despite the fact that neither are uncommon around the league.

Under the current CBA every team pools 48% of local revenue which is split evenly amongst all 30 teams. I've seen that number estimated at 110m+ per team with another 90m+ in shared national money. They may not all be able to spend like the Mets and Dodgers, but there are a lot of teams that could and should be spending a lot more. They don't because it's less profitable. There's a reason none of the privately owned teams open their books. Even at the levels Peter took it to I don't believe for a second there was ever actually real concern over the team's finances.

After spending so much time as one of those teams that was content to just collect revenue sharing money I'm grateful that we are spending at the level that we are. After such a great year it would just be nice to see the new decision makers throw some more financial weight behind the team and give AJ a little more to work with to fill the obvious holes on the roster. Instead we're getting reports that they have no intention of paying the luxury tax.

Quote from fenn68 on December 11, 2024, 3:28 pm

Looks as though BOST is trying to really make a SP push. Reported that they are writing up a formal contract proposal for Burnes … no idea on size but if writing something up know the market it has BIG. Additionally, Seattle has apparently rejected a BOST offer for one of their SP offering Casas (a pretty good LHH 1B/DH).

I guess if those fall through … BOST may be in on Cease and BOST still has some major ML ready pieces.

Also, the BALT for Cease rumor is heating up … they also have a number of ML ready elite prospects.

At this pace of FA signings / trades for top SP … we may get a resolution on Cease before Christmas.

Quote from sportwarrior on December 11, 2024, 6:16 pm

Take it fwiw, but Heyman included Boegaerts in his list of names the Padres are "listening" on alongside Cease and Arraez. He made the point that some of these big Padres contracts are looking quite a bit better given the FA dollars being spent this off-season.

Quote from WindsorUK on December 11, 2024, 10:53 pm

If AJ could get out of the Bogaerts deal, that would be HUGE!

At this point, he appears to be no better than replacement level, at 2B! Obviously, Boston Bogaerts COULD reappear at any time, but I'm not sure he can live up to his contract. I'd much rather have Jake at 2B with his contract going forward.

BUT.....what happens at SS? Right now, Xander is OD SS, right? On a team FULL of shortstops, we seem to be lacking one🤣

Quote from fenn68 on December 12, 2024, 4:21 am

Quote from WindsorUK on December 11, 2024, 10:53 pm

If AJ could get out of the Bogaerts deal, that would be HUGE!

At this point, he appears to be no better than replacement level, at 2B! Obviously, Boston Bogaerts COULD reappear at any time, but I'm not sure he can live up to his contract. I'd much rather have Jake at 2B with his contract going forward.

BUT.....what happens at SS? Right now, Xander is OD SS, right? On a team FULL of shortstops, we seem to be lacking one

I guess Bogaerts could have a trade market but the problem for the Padres starts with they would have to eat a big chunk of his current contract (sort of defeats the purpose) ... or take a equally or worse contract in return, then would have to go out and get an equivalent quality SS (they don't exist on the FA market) and pay current valuations for equal production. Maybe could get a shorter commitment but from an AAV perspective maybe only save $5-10MM IF they could find a replacement and still have to pay what they eat of Bogaerts' contact.

I sort of fall in the camp of shedding Bogaert's contract would not improve the Padres in the short run ... and if we see 2025 a legit window to contend that makes a deal a no go.

Maybe ... even if Bogaerts settles in as a slightly above average player ... in a few years he may have a better market with the inflation of player salaries making his $25MM annual will seem more like $15MM today and for a team need a SS/2B that might fit.

Preller listens sure ... hard to see a deal being made. (add the hurdle of Bogaerts' no trade maybe eliminating some potential buyers ... SD vs the A's?)

 

Quote from fenn68 on December 12, 2024, 4:52 am

Having in the previous post argued a trade is not likely (or of value to the Padres NOW) ... see two teams that might be willing to take Bogaerts and his contract (at least the bulk) if the Padres did not want to get anything of value in return ... basically just save the $25MM AAV for the next 9 years.

Two key elements ... teams that have money (and willing to spend) who are current contenders in need of an INF.

1. NYY ... lost out on Soto at a mega price ... signed Fried at a much lower price point ... still pushing to add. They need either a 2B or 3B with Chisholm playing either slot. Add that they could need a 1B.
2. NYM ... this is Cohen and will spend ... they have a SS but have issues at 1B-2B-3B so adding Bogaerts (with some shuffling) fits.

Guessing Bogaerts still carries a good reputation on the East Coast from his time in Boston.

Padres in 2025 would have a problem ... would have to gamble on a re-sign of Kim (maybe $15MM) as the only legit SS on the market (if they can).

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 12, 2024, 5:44 am

If the mandate is indeed to lower payroll you could trade X and eat some $ and sign a stop gap,defense first cheap SS(Nick Ahmed/Amed Rosario?) and use what you can to get SP/C.

Hopefully we only need someone for 1 1/2 seasons.

Not saying it's ideal....we just don't know how firm the "lower payroll" mandate is.