Quote from TucsonClip on December 18, 2024, 9:24 am

I just can't see any way we salary dump Arraez, as nobody is giving us much in return, based on the package we gave up for him. He fits our profile on offense, and he seems the most likely to agree to an suitable extension.

Quote from BoosterSD on December 18, 2024, 9:46 am

Quote from TucsonClip on December 18, 2024, 9:24 am

I just can't see any way we salary dump Arraez, as nobody is giving us much in return, based on the package we gave up for him. He fits our profile on offense, and he seems the most likely to agree to an suitable extension.

The best way that I can see Arraez getting an extension is if he realizes that his market is limited. Not a lot of teams will appreciate his hitting(lack of power) and very limited defense. The best thing for SD and Arraez (same as Profar really) is seeing the best fit is in SD, and signing deals that will help SD limp through the CBT issues of this season, and then make some additional dollars by going a little longer term.

Both need to sign deals that keeps the CBT average at around $8M per season. Even if it means SD takes the deals out to the 6 year mark.

Quote from fenn68 on December 18, 2024, 10:12 am

Quote from TucsonClip on December 18, 2024, 9:24 am

I just can't see any way we salary dump Arraez, as nobody is giving us much in return, based on the package we gave up for him. He fits our profile on offense, and he seems the most likely to agree to an suitable extension.

Choices are limited IF the Padres are targeting only a slight increase over the $169MM CASH payroll from 2024. Arraez is going from near zero (MIA paid his salary) to over $14MM estimate from ARB. Padres dealing with a projected CASH payroll just over $200MM (built in 15% increase). Tatis, Cease, King are getting substantial CASH increases (along with others getting smaller increases). May not like the situation but just dealing with the options available assuming the payroll strategy will play out as suggested ... while still trying to fill out a 26 man roster to contend that currently has some real needs (LF, 1B/DH, C, SP).

Agree would not get a big return (maybe a prospect or two in the lower ranks). However, as much as Arraez provides in  BA ... he has limited SLG, no defense, no base running. Clearing his salary ... and then redeploying it on Profar (or similar) plus maybe a Diaz could provide more value to the Padres in 2025 if they had other options to balance the budget. Alternatively, maybe clearing his salary allows them to keep Cease (very important if not signing Sasaki).

Given the payroll issue ... someone has to go even if it is to redeploy money to fill other more pressing needs ... and that has to be a player(s) who have a decent salary AND marketable to a team that will take that salary while not creating an equal or greater hole in the roster. Not easy.

Even if the Padres would push up the CASH payroll to $180MM (+$11MM) ... that would still suggest the trades of Suarez, Peralta, and one of Arraez or Cease ... and not add any FA other than that minor league / make good option. Opens a debate on who will be of more value to retain? In that have to consider whether they get a ML type back in a deal to address other needs ... I would suggest Cease and Suarez have the best chance to get a ML player in return but can they afford to deal Cease if they do not sign Sasaki?

 

Quote from TucsonClip on December 18, 2024, 12:58 pm

Quote from fenn68 on December 18, 2024, 10:12 am

Quote from TucsonClip on December 18, 2024, 9:24 am

I just can't see any way we salary dump Arraez, as nobody is giving us much in return, based on the package we gave up for him. He fits our profile on offense, and he seems the most likely to agree to an suitable extension.

Choices are limited IF the Padres are targeting only a slight increase over the $169MM CASH payroll from 2024. Arraez is going from near zero (MIA paid his salary) to over $14MM estimate from ARB. Padres dealing with a projected CASH payroll just over $200MM (built in 15% increase). Tatis, Cease, King are getting substantial CASH increases (along with others getting smaller increases). May not like the situation but just dealing with the options available assuming the payroll strategy will play out as suggested ... while still trying to fill out a 26 man roster to contend that currently has some real needs (LF, 1B/DH, C, SP).

Agree would not get a big return (maybe a prospect or two in the lower ranks). However, as much as Arraez provides in  BA ... he has limited SLG, no defense, no base running. Clearing his salary ... and then redeploying it on Profar (or similar) plus maybe a Diaz could provide more value to the Padres in 2025 if they had other options to balance the budget. Alternatively, maybe clearing his salary allows them to keep Cease (very important if not signing Sasaki).

Given the payroll issue ... someone has to go even if it is to redeploy money to fill other more pressing needs ... and that has to be a player(s) who have a decent salary AND marketable to a team that will take that salary while not creating an equal or greater hole in the roster. Not easy.

Even if the Padres would push up the CASH payroll to $180MM (+$11MM) ... that would still suggest the trades of Suarez, Peralta, and one of Arraez or Cease ... and not add any FA other than that minor league / make good option. Opens a debate on who will be of more value to retain? In that have to consider whether they get a ML type back in a deal to address other needs ... I would suggest Cease and Suarez have the best chance to get a ML player in return but can they afford to deal Cease if they do not sign Sasaki?

 

Cease seems the most likely to me, just because we simply cannot afford him without moving some other guys, who are far less valuable around the league.

All that said, Preller already held on to guys like Snell and Hader at the '23 deadline and let them walk. Not say we should do that, but it isn't out of the question, especially if he finds some creative ways to fill out the rest of the roster (Suarez, Jake, Peralta).

Quote from TucsonClip on December 18, 2024, 1:00 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on December 18, 2024, 9:46 am

Quote from TucsonClip on December 18, 2024, 9:24 am

I just can't see any way we salary dump Arraez, as nobody is giving us much in return, based on the package we gave up for him. He fits our profile on offense, and he seems the most likely to agree to an suitable extension.

The best way that I can see Arraez getting an extension is if he realizes that his market is limited. Not a lot of teams will appreciate his hitting(lack of power) and very limited defense. The best thing for SD and Arraez (same as Profar really) is seeing the best fit is in SD, and signing deals that will help SD limp through the CBT issues of this season, and then make some additional dollars by going a little longer term.

Both need to sign deals that keeps the CBT average at around $8M per season. Even if it means SD takes the deals out to the 6 year mark.

Agreed on Arraez, which is why I think he's the most likely to extend.

Quote from WindsorUK on December 18, 2024, 3:34 pm

Quote from TucsonClip on December 18, 2024, 12:58 pm

Quote from fenn68 on December 18, 2024, 10:12 am

Quote from TucsonClip on December 18, 2024, 9:24 am

I just can't see any way we salary dump Arraez, as nobody is giving us much in return, based on the package we gave up for him. He fits our profile on offense, and he seems the most likely to agree to an suitable extension.

Choices are limited IF the Padres are targeting only a slight increase over the $169MM CASH payroll from 2024. Arraez is going from near zero (MIA paid his salary) to over $14MM estimate from ARB. Padres dealing with a projected CASH payroll just over $200MM (built in 15% increase). Tatis, Cease, King are getting substantial CASH increases (along with others getting smaller increases). May not like the situation but just dealing with the options available assuming the payroll strategy will play out as suggested ... while still trying to fill out a 26 man roster to contend that currently has some real needs (LF, 1B/DH, C, SP).

Agree would not get a big return (maybe a prospect or two in the lower ranks). However, as much as Arraez provides in  BA ... he has limited SLG, no defense, no base running. Clearing his salary ... and then redeploying it on Profar (or similar) plus maybe a Diaz could provide more value to the Padres in 2025 if they had other options to balance the budget. Alternatively, maybe clearing his salary allows them to keep Cease (very important if not signing Sasaki).

Given the payroll issue ... someone has to go even if it is to redeploy money to fill other more pressing needs ... and that has to be a player(s) who have a decent salary AND marketable to a team that will take that salary while not creating an equal or greater hole in the roster. Not easy.

Even if the Padres would push up the CASH payroll to $180MM (+$11MM) ... that would still suggest the trades of Suarez, Peralta, and one of Arraez or Cease ... and not add any FA other than that minor league / make good option. Opens a debate on who will be of more value to retain? In that have to consider whether they get a ML type back in a deal to address other needs ... I would suggest Cease and Suarez have the best chance to get a ML player in return but can they afford to deal Cease if they do not sign Sasaki?

 

Cease seems the most likely to me, just because we simply cannot afford him without moving some other guys, who are far less valuable around the league.

All that said, Preller already held on to guys like Snell and Hader at the '23 deadline and let them walk. Not say we should do that, but it isn't out of the question, especially if he finds some creative ways to fill out the rest of the roster (Suarez, Jake, Peralta).

I was certain AJ would shift Suarez's salary LAST off season, due to the $10 million + price tag. And I'm going to double down this off season. That money could be better spent elsewhere( OF, C, extensions, etc.)

Jake is an interesting one. Love his D at both 1B and 2B but his bat plays better at 2B, whereas his dollar amount plays better at 1B. That said, I think moving him creates at least 2 holes: great D for right side of infield( both Arraez and Bogaerts are bad) and LH bat with pop. Plus fans in SD love him.

Quote from Stergios on December 18, 2024, 9:12 pm

Apparently the Yankees need a third baseman, so what are the chances we could trade them X, who would move to that position for them?  They could easily absorb the 230 M.$ remaining on his contract.

Quote from brent wolff on December 20, 2024, 3:30 am

Quote from Stergios on December 18, 2024, 9:12 pm

Apparently the Yankees need a third baseman, so what are the chances we could trade them X, who would move to that position for them?  They could easily absorb the 230 M.$ remaining on his contract.

How much do you think we would have to pay to get someone to take X and get out from under that contract?  To me, AJP overpaid quite a bit for X in his yearly value and number of years.  However, that was when he was trying to win it all for Peter Seidler, so I get the why, it just wasn't the best decision value wise.  Go Pads!

Quote from fenn68 on December 20, 2024, 4:25 am

Quote from brent wolff on December 20, 2024, 3:30 am

Quote from Stergios on December 18, 2024, 9:12 pm

Apparently the Yankees need a third baseman, so what are the chances we could trade them X, who would move to that position for them?  They could easily absorb the 230 M.$ remaining on his contract.

How much do you think we would have to pay to get someone to take X and get out from under that contract?  To me, AJP overpaid quite a bit for X in his yearly value and number of years.  However, that was when he was trying to win it all for Peter Seidler, so I get the why, it just wasn't the best decision value wise.  Go Pads!

If Bogaerts' contract is an Albatros ... no reason for NYY (or anyone) to take it when they could sign a Bregman on a shorter / less deal for more production. Or they could sign cheaply Kim if a SS was the target. Even if a team would bite ... Padres would get nothing of value in return even if the paid down some of the contract. Plus Bogaert has a full no trade ... and we saw that evoked by Arenado last week.

On the Padres side ... who is in the middle INF beyond Cronenworth?

Padres ... if they plan to contend in 2025 ... NEED Bogaerts (hopefully playing well).