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2024 Winter Meetings Dec 9-12
#41 · December 11, 2024, 6:41 am
Rule 5 is today. Padres have the 25th pick. Only Detroit has a full 40 man, so everyone else can make a pick … but usually don’t. Padres only have 33 (lowest) so primed to gamble on a pick (or two) and to get a better player would not be surprised to see them make a deal using a minor prospect to get the better player.
Also, would not be surprised to see them active in the minor league phase ($25K and not roster restrictions). Not really to impact the ML team but looking at the Padres AAA/AA rosters they are way under staffed in position players … C, INF, OF. Bodies are needed.
#42 · December 11, 2024, 7:56 am
Record attendance with a team that was one win away from taking out the champs and we're talking about trading an ace and cutting payroll. The difference between an owner that treated the team like a passion and the new decision making group who have taken it back to a business is becoming increasingly clear. Just about everything went right for the team last year. Handcuffing AJ and asking him to do it again seems like a recipe for disappointment. They should bite the bullet and commit to a higher payroll for the next season or 2. Pare it back when Salas, De Vries and others are ready to make an impact. Prove that they weren't just paying lip service with all the talk about carrying on Peter's legacy. They won't, but they should.
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#43 · December 11, 2024, 8:22 am
Quote from Jeremy Hill on December 11, 2024, 7:56 amRecord attendance with a team that was one win away from taking out the champs and we're talking about trading an ace and cutting payroll. The difference between an owner that treated the team like a passion and the new decision making group who have taken it back to a business is becoming increasingly clear. Just about everything went right for the team last year. Handcuffing AJ and asking him to do it again seems like a recipe for disappointment. They should bite the bullet and commit to a higher payroll for the next season or 2. Pare it back when Salas, De Vries and others are ready to make an impact. Prove that they weren't just paying lip service with all the talk about carrying on Peter's legacy. They won't, but they should.
Actually not planning to cut payroll … from a CASH standpoint they will naturally go up $30-40MM just from arbitration decisions and existing contract increases. From a CBT perspective they are already on track to exceed 2024 end number (and over the first threshold).
I would not ignore the league enforcing the debt service rules that apparently triggered the major drop in payroll for 2024 … that may keep the Padres ownership at about the current payroll level until that is resolved. Plus the Padres are already sitting in the top 5 +/- payrolls going into 2025.
I can recall Siedler before 2023 saying that the elevated payroll was not sustainable … basically taking the all in approach for a short run window (2023-24) … then settle at around #10 in payroll … they are still exceeding that view by Siedler.
Still think the Padres can make the playoffs with just MINOR tinkering in 2025 but the bottom probably would fall out in 2026. So the logic for dealing Cease or Arraez or King (expensive FA after 2025) is not just payroll flexibility but adding key (lower cost) assets that make 2026 and beyond competitive. Soto 2.0 … that worked last year with the Padres making the playoffs with only injuries potentially hampering a longer playoff run.
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#44 · December 11, 2024, 10:16 am
I'm also thinking that the surge in payroll over the CBT for a couple years may have been driven by Seidler due to his health.
Go all in and try for the parade but with intentions of always getting back under before the third year.
We have to face the fact that even with home games sold out we can't expect to spend with the teams from LA,NY,Box,Chi consistently.
Esp now when we don't even have TV revenue coming in.........
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#45 · December 11, 2024, 11:58 am
We got SP Nunez from the O's In Rule 5
#47 · December 11, 2024, 12:21 pm
Bos gets Crochet……they should have just kept Sale.
They've made some bad decisions over there…..I mean,what do they have left from the Mookie Betts trade?
Yikes
#48 · December 11, 2024, 12:22 pm
They probably wanted Salas or DeVries + and neither side would budge
#49 · December 11, 2024, 12:34 pm
Quote from MrPadre19 on December 11, 2024, 12:22 pmThey probably wanted Salas or DeVries + and neither side would budge
Boston had a strong system and not sure the Padres could have matched that deal for Crochet.
Teel (MLB #25), Montgomery (MLB #54), Meidroth (Boston #11), and Gonzalas (Boston #14).
Not sure that even Salas and DeVries (both in A ball) would have worked vs Boston.
#50 · December 11, 2024, 12:42 pm
Burnes is the last big SP name out as a FA and should command MORE than Fried … so big big commitment. Not hearing any big SP on the trade market.
So, given the return on the Crochet deal (albeit 2 years) … really does set up a high quality return if the choose to move Cease. With NYY and BOST fortifying their SP in the AL East … BALT (great farm system) and TOR have to be real potential candidates for a trade with SD. After what the NYM have done (and apparently will continue to do) … ATL may have to jump into the mix with PHIL … and actually the NYM may want to shut down the others and bid.
Given Burnes will get a mega contract from someone … many of these others who are not in that game might want to move quickly on a Cease and pay up soon to ice out the others. Preller is in a good spot whether he holds or loves an early overpay … take the deal … maybe fill a key need … and with extra money make his own FA moves before his targets come off the board.