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2024 Winter Meetings Dec 9-12
#21 · December 10, 2024, 3:26 am
Did hear (from Preller I think) that the Padres were "in on" every FA catcher that has signed but clearly not going the $5-8MM to sign any. One reporter noted that Preller has never signed a FA catcher for greater than $5MM ... yet has a track record of adding "decent" catchers on the cheap ... think Alfaro, Sanchez, etc.
Seems to be a lot more reporter discussion of payroll limits and the potential of trading someone like Cease or Arraez (both FA after the season) to get something back and clear some salary to redeploy (think a mini version of the Soto trade last year ... and the worked fine).
Remember the reports for 2024 were that the Padres were in violation of MLB debt servicing rules and that perciptated the $90-100MM drop in payroll for 2024. No idea if anything changed on the debt front but but just looking at the projected "cash" payroll cost ... 2024 finished just under $170MM but the 2025 projected after arbitration decisions without any FA signings jumps to $203MM (per Cot's) ... so with no action cash outflow jumps $33MM. That could be the real issue if debt servicing is still in play. (note from a CBT perspective the Padres are projected to move up a more modest $8MM but that is not cash so probably have to shift benchmark).
A bit more chatter about the strategic value of dealing Cease (projected $13.5MM). He is a top of the rotation arm, a FA after the season, a Boras client ... so very little chance he gets resigned (over King or Arraez). Once she of the FA SP come off the board ... there will still be a strong demand for a top of the rotation SP ... who is lower cost with a short commitment. Not a Soto return (also a one an done trade) but still could yield a couple of league minimum players (at least one impacting 2025) while freeing up the $13.5MM that could be used to sign FA to fill outer holes (Profar?).
Might need to wait to know how Sasaki plays out (along with the current FA getting signed) ... If Sasaki signs with the Padres a top three of Sasaki - Darvish - King remains strong and Preller gets creative for the rest of the rotation. Need a LF,1B/DH, and a C ... what are the best slots (including SP) that Preller sees as the lowest risk gamble?
Are we playing a zero sum game for 2025? Adds require deletes?
#22 · December 10, 2024, 5:16 am
Sign Sasaki and pursue a trade with Baltimore with Cease.
They are LOADED with young prospects and have new ownership who may not hold onto them at all costs and trade the veterans like former owners did.
They have OF/1B prospects like Mayo/Basallo/Beavers who are ready...others who are close.
Basallo is a C/1B....could come in handy
#23 · December 10, 2024, 5:44 am
Quote from MrPadre19 on December 10, 2024, 5:16 amSign Sasaki and pursue a trade with Baltimore with Cease.
They are LOADED with young prospects and have new ownership who may not hold onto them at all costs and trade the veterans like former owners did.
They have OF/1B prospects like Mayo/Basallo/Beavers who are ready...others who are close.
Basallo is a C/1B....could come in handy
That was one deal I was thinking about ... and possible.
I will toss in the mega spender METS ... no issue with Cease's $13.5MM ... wants a top of the rotation SP (or two) ... also a good farm system. I would target (I know this may not appeal to some) SS Jett Williams (AAA last season) ... a top 100 prospect that, as I recall, Preller was very interested in during the draft a couple of years back. Might also get some complementary pieces to fill the 40 man. Mets have Lindor at SS ... so Williams could be available.
Why add a SS with DeVries coming ... well, he was only in A ball and it may take 2-3 years before he impacts the ML. Need a SS now ... leaves Bogaerts at 2B (where the Padres prefer to keep him) and Cronenworth at 1B ... that would retain a plus defensive INF that would be stable for years.
Save the $13.5MM and deploy on LF and/or C ... basically firm up the position player line-up. RP is strong ... so the real gamble is down to the bottom of the rotation.
#24 · December 10, 2024, 7:48 am
Shinnosuke Ogasawara LHP JAPAN
Just posted ... good arm just 27 ... is he another SP option for Preller as he mines Japan / Korea?
Note: Ogasawara is set to become the first player the Dragons have posted since Akinori Otsuka, who signed with the San Diego Padres ahead of the 2004 campaign and spent four seasons in the majors. Otsuka was Ogasawara's pitching coach on the Dragons over the past few years.
#25 · December 10, 2024, 11:13 am
One thing to keep in mind when discussing SP from Japan, would be the amount of rest they get in Japan between starts. Even just getting Sasaki, and then possibly Ogasawara, SD could need to go to a 6 man rotation.
#26 · December 10, 2024, 11:56 am
Couple reasons I like Basallo is he's still only 20 but already reached AAA and Bal has Adley Rutschman
IF he hits,he could move to 1B when Salas arrives or be a monster 1-2 punch behind the plate.
Career .364 OBP all while being 2-3 years young for each league is intriguing to me.
Just a thought
#27 · December 10, 2024, 12:40 pm
Quote from MrPadre19 on December 10, 2024, 11:56 amCouple reasons I like Basallo is he's still only 20 but already reached AAA and Bal has Adley Rutschman
IF he hits,he could move to 1B when Salas arrives or be a monster 1-2 punch behind the plate.
Career .364 OBP all while being 2-3 years young for each league is intriguing to me.
Just a thought
I could live with that. #13 on MLBPipeline's most recent Top 100 ... even for Cease that might be a bit of a steep price for BALT to pay. Probably should project his as a 1B/DH since his defense is not that great ... but his bat is top shelf (projected).
I tossed in Williams (#52), 21, and covered by Lindor at SS ... plus clearly Cohen will easily take Cease's salary. Might even get a second / third useful piece in a deal with the METS.
Both work for me ... and a plausible moves.
#28 · December 10, 2024, 12:43 pm
Quote from BoosterSD on December 10, 2024, 11:13 amOne thing to keep in mind when discussing SP from Japan, would be the amount of rest they get in Japan between starts. Even just getting Sasaki, and then possibly Ogasawara, SD could need to go to a 6 man rotation.
Agree but will hedge the concern with how Niebla handled both Lugo and King coming from limited innings as RP to full seasons as SP.
He seems to have the ability to manage the pitchers in a way to get the max innings out of them and keep the effective.
#29 · December 10, 2024, 12:47 pm
Acee (take that for what is worth) is strongly suggesting that the Padres will not exceed the CBT threshold in 2025. Padres are current slightly over. If this is just not negotiation material from the Padres ... the premise of dealing a Cease and/or Arraez to get different (low cost) talent and open payroll space for FA signs.
Preller has a challenge.
#30 · December 10, 2024, 1:47 pm
Quote from fenn68 on December 10, 2024, 12:40 pmQuote from MrPadre19 on December 10, 2024, 11:56 amCouple reasons I like Basallo is he's still only 20 but already reached AAA and Bal has Adley Rutschman
IF he hits,he could move to 1B when Salas arrives or be a monster 1-2 punch behind the plate.
Career .364 OBP all while being 2-3 years young for each league is intriguing to me.
Just a thought
I could live with that. #13 on MLBPipeline's most recent Top 100 ... even for Cease that might be a bit of a steep price for BALT to pay. Probably should project his as a 1B/DH since his defense is not that great ... but his bat is top shelf (projected).
I tossed in Williams (#52), 21, and covered by Lindor at SS ... plus clearly Cohen will easily take Cease's salary. Might even get a second / third useful piece in a deal with the METS.
Both work for me ... and a plausible moves.
As with all trade scenarios pieces/$$ could be added to either side to make it work.
I used to be high on Jett but for some reason not so much anymore.
Great speed.....but little power and at 5'6" 175 there's not much coming.
Now if his defense is GG caliber maybe....but I don't know about his defense.
David Eckstein 2.0?