Quote from brent wolff on August 27, 2024, 7:30 am

Quote from fenn68 on August 27, 2024, 2:39 am

Odds makers now have the Padres up to 95% chance of making the playoffs. (Clearly still have to do avoid a major losing streak).

However, with 29 games to go, and 5 games behind LAD in the loss column a very long shot to catch them for the NL West. On the flip side, SD is 5 games ahead of the NYM in gthe loss column so also a long shot for the METS to bump the Padres out of the playoffs (maybe they bump ATL). Note that in the past 10 games, all 7 NL playoff contenders continue to win either going 7-3 or 6-4 … not much position movement so some team(s) have to really alter their playing to do much to impact the standings at this point.

So, a debate could be around SD or AZ in the #1 WC vs #2 WC … leading towards that match-up in round 1. Home field advantage would be good for the fans with a home game but SD has been better on the road but AZ is better at home … probably should not over think this with Musgrove, Cease, King all capable of performing (and winning) no matter where they pitch.

Just keep winning and let the chips fall where they may.

I think I would rather host the Snakes (and enjoy the energy benefit of the hometown fans) than play them in Phoenix, but as you said Fenn, Cease, Musgrove & King are capable of winning anywhere.  Go Pads!

Quote from Randy Manese on August 27, 2024, 9:14 am

I really like the signing of Elias Diaz to a minor league deal.  After his latest injury, Campy seems to have slumped both offensively and defensively; I wouldn't be surprised if Campy goes on the IL and Diaz is brought up.  Diaz is another great clubhouse presence and could possibly bring additional insight into competing against Arizona and LA.  Further, gives a little bit of cushion if, for whatever reason, we can't afford Higgy and Diaz becomes an option at a lower salary (even though Diaz' 2024 salary was almost 3 times that of Higgy).   We're just about 2 years away from Salas, so just trying to bridge that gap and also hope Campy regains the form he flashed earlier in the season.

Quote from sportwarrior on August 27, 2024, 10:10 am

Quote from Randy Manese on August 27, 2024, 9:14 am

I really like the signing of Elias Diaz to a minor league deal.  After his latest injury, Campy seems to have slumped both offensively and defensively; I wouldn't be surprised if Campy goes on the IL and Diaz is brought up.  Diaz is another great clubhouse presence and could possibly bring additional insight into competing against Arizona and LA.  Further, gives a little bit of cushion if, for whatever reason, we can't afford Higgy and Diaz becomes an option at a lower salary (even though Diaz' 2024 salary was almost 3 times that of Higgy).   We're just about 2 years away from Salas, so just trying to bridge that gap and also hope Campy regains the form he flashed earlier in the season.

Agreed. In fact, to be honest, I'm stoked on the Diaz signing. I'm not expecting him to boost our position in the standings single handedly or anything, but he's proven to be a positive contributor with his on-field skills and, by all accounts, seems to be a positive in the clubhouse. Chalk in the additional insight he carries with him that you already mentioned, Randy, and it's hard to see how this is anything but a positive depth move.

Slide Campy onto the IL and call up Diaz when he's ready, keep our options open for the playoffs and hopefully marginally improve our chances down the stretch.

Quote from fenn68 on August 27, 2024, 11:56 am

I know the common opinion is that Arraez is an elite hitter ... he is still #2 BA in the NL and will draw a big ARB increase this winter before FA after 2025. No question he can hit ... but looking at his season he has some faults that the Padres may have to consider as the go into the playoffs and maybe whether they trade him in the off-season vs paying him a $13-15MM salary. Consider:

AWAY: 355/378/440 ... that is the Arraez we want

HOME: 249/279/312 ... that is surprising bad for his reputation

v RHP: 322/350/401 ... again that is the Arraez we want

v LHP: 262/286/328 ,,, mediocre

Makes me think that sitting Arraez at Home vs LHP (Solano instead?) has to be considered.

Beyond that for $13-15MM is his production worth it for 2025 and can he be traded (again). Tatis is back for the added offense ... might sign Solano / Peralta combined for less ... so money on the table to help re-sign Profar and/or Kim.

Not sure the splits Arraez had in MINN and MIA ... but maybe we are seeing why despite his hitting reputation he was "tradable" by his team.

Quote from dusty on August 28, 2024, 6:32 am

A team that we really can’t sleep on anymore is the Chicago Cubs. They are really making the wild card race interesting. Have won 8 of their last 11 and have a really favorable schedule to close out the season. While divisional games usually are supposed to be tough, they are just running over the pirates and are beating the teams good teams are supposed to beat. Remaining games include 5 against the Pirates, 7 against the nationals, 3 against the A’s 3 against the Rockies and 3 against the Reds. Thats 21 games they could theoretically win 12–14-16 and then They have 9 against the yankees dodgers and phillies. If they win 18 of those games, they will finish with 85 wins. Yes, they have to pass two of the Braves, Mets DBacks and Padres but they will make it even more interesting. Mets would have to win at least 16 more in this scenario with 3 against the white sox, 3 against the reds, 3 against toronto and 3 against the nationals but 17 more against the dbacks, braves, phillies, brewers, and red sox. Braves would need to win at least 13 in this scenario with 15 against the Rockies blue jays reds, nationals, and marlins

Quote from Randy Manese on August 28, 2024, 7:57 am

As Fenn and others have indicated previously, we can't put this same team on the field in 2025 without substantially going over the CBT.  A lot of hard decisions are going to have to be made because of all the free agents, arbitration eligibles and other low cost alternatives Preller was able to piece together this year.  So, my strategy until we are assured of a playoff spot, is just to take one day at a time and not get stressed out about other potential contenders for a wildcard in the National League.

If you look at all the question marks the Padres had after the end of the disastrous 2023 season, the death of Peter Seidler and the drastic reduction in payroll going forward into the winter meetings, we were looking like cellar dwellers with the Colorado Rockies.  However, despite Manny fighting through off-season surgery, opening the season early in Korea against the Dodgers, the loss of Darvish and Musgrove for most of the season, the injuries to Bogaerts and Tati, and many other small but significant challenges, the Padres have prevailed - this is a magical season and I firmly believe it will continue straight to the playoffs and hopefully beyond.  Go Padres!

Quote from Alex Tamayo on August 28, 2024, 12:56 pm

Quote from dusty on August 28, 2024, 6:32 am

A team that we really can’t sleep on anymore is the Chicago Cubs. They are really making the wild card race interesting. Have won 8 of their last 11 and have a really favorable schedule to close out the season. While divisional games usually are supposed to be tough, they are just running over the pirates and are beating the teams good teams are supposed to beat. Remaining games include 5 against the Pirates, 7 against the nationals, 3 against the A’s 3 against the Rockies and 3 against the Reds. Thats 21 games they could theoretically win 12–14-16 and then They have 9 against the yankees dodgers and phillies. If they win 18 of those games, they will finish with 85 wins. Yes, they have to pass two of the Braves, Mets DBacks and Padres but they will make it even more interesting. Mets would have to win at least 16 more in this scenario with 3 against the white sox, 3 against the reds, 3 against toronto and 3 against the nationals but 17 more against the dbacks, braves, phillies, brewers, and red sox. Braves would need to win at least 13 in this scenario with 15 against the Rockies blue jays reds, nationals, and marlins

It seems at least possible, now If the Braves win 15 out of 30 games left, that forces the Cubs to win 20 out of 29 left, they are in a similar situation the Pads were last year, at the end won 13 out of 16 but it wasn't enough.

Quote from fenn68 on August 28, 2024, 1:33 pm

Quote from Alex Tamayo on August 28, 2024, 12:56 pm

Quote from dusty on August 28, 2024, 6:32 am

A team that we really can’t sleep on anymore is the Chicago Cubs. They are really making the wild card race interesting. Have won 8 of their last 11 and have a really favorable schedule to close out the season. While divisional games usually are supposed to be tough, they are just running over the pirates and are beating the teams good teams are supposed to beat. Remaining games include 5 against the Pirates, 7 against the nationals, 3 against the A’s 3 against the Rockies and 3 against the Reds. Thats 21 games they could theoretically win 12–14-16 and then They have 9 against the yankees dodgers and phillies. If they win 18 of those games, they will finish with 85 wins. Yes, they have to pass two of the Braves, Mets DBacks and Padres but they will make it even more interesting. Mets would have to win at least 16 more in this scenario with 3 against the white sox, 3 against the reds, 3 against toronto and 3 against the nationals but 17 more against the dbacks, braves, phillies, brewers, and red sox. Braves would need to win at least 13 in this scenario with 15 against the Rockies blue jays reds, nationals, and marlins

It seems at least possible, now If the Braves win 15 out of 30 games left, that forces the Cubs to win 20 out of 29 left, they are in a similar situation the Pads were last year, at the end won 13 out of 16 but it wasn't enough.

At this point in the season I look at team losses (can’t undo your own losses). As it stands with about 28 games to play, the Cubs have 66 losses (so does SF) while ATL has 60 … making up 6 games is possible but getting to be a long shot.

However, in between is the NYM with 63 losses … so have to consider the Mets have to also start losing even if ATL tanks or NYM take that 3rd WC slot staying ahead of the Cubs (and Giants).

SD is 8 games ahead of Cubs/SF … 5 games ahead of the METS … 2 games ahead of ATL in the loss column. TWO of those teams would have to pass the Padres to knock them out of the playoffs … unless the Padres tank totally that is going to be very difficult.

Quote from fenn68 on August 28, 2024, 1:47 pm

Padres will have an interesting decision on Sunday SEP 1 (in TB) when they can add one pitcher and one position player to the active roster.

Does not appear that Tatis, Kim, or Darvish are ready to be activated … but all are “close” and are expected to be activated soon after.

If not those three … who do they call up (then probably send back down as the others are activated). The pitcher should be “easy” with a few RP (Bachar, Jacob, Gillespie) in play until Darvish is added.

Position player is more of a question … Azocar, Rosario, Ornelas,  Sullivan are on the 40 man … returned when Kim arrives then someone else has to go down for Tatis (McCoy or Wade or Johnson?)

Then there is the non-roster Diaz strategy.