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2024 Padres Season
#271 · July 18, 2024, 11:25 am
At the All-Star break took a long look at Kim and what seems to be his offensive struggles this year. On digging deeper, found out he is walking more and striking out less; his barrel rate and hard hit rate are up as is his isolated power. Glaring difference is his BABIP - in 2022 .290 and last year .306 - this year, .226! Looking at his batting results, not much difference in GB rate but LD and FB rate showed a loss of around 2% in the former and gain of 2-4% in latter. Further, infield popups, which are listed in the FB category have increased dramatically (up 6%) thus driving up the FB%. So, in the second half, if he can reduce the upper cut on his swing just a hair to last years levels, he should be right on track to finish strong and maybe have end of the year offensive stats almost as good as last years.
Similarly, while he won a GG as a utility inf, it was primarily at 2b. His SS stats this year are almost identical from last year.
In short, nothing to show that Kim is over the hill and should not be re-signed; he is the offensive spark plug with his speed in so many rallies. Has a 2M buyout and a $1 mutual option which of course he will not exercise. Suspect the Padres will tack on another 10M to the 2M they owe him and hope he takes it - might be a short term contract. With De Vries to slot in around 2026 and Cronenworth new salary kicking in, 2025 might be the last year these two are together (or it could be this year!).
#272 · July 18, 2024, 12:48 pm
Padres will have some difficult choices this winter IF they remain committed to remaining under the CBT threshold.
Kim (who I also think they should re-sign) is a FA and should command a multi-year deal in excess of a $10MM AAV. He is legit defense at a premium position and DeVries is maybe 3-4 years out (if he develops). BUT
Profar is a FA and a key to making this team run. He should be resigned … probably not getting a long term deal at age 32 but an AAV in that $10MM range.
Keep in mind if one or both go FA … getting a near equivalent replacement at a significant cost savings is unlikely.
Then factor in the ARB for Arraez which should be pushing $15MM (he is at $10MM) and MIA is paying his 2024 … so his ARB is a pure add for the Padres. Add good sized ARB increases for King and Cease … their last control seasons.
Simply bringing back the current team will push the Padres maybe $15-20MM OVER the CBT. IF that is unacceptable to the Padres do they not sign Profar and/or Kim or do they trade Cease and/or Arraez (last control seasons).
The big contract / no-trade players are not being moved … but if they tried Padres would have to eat a major portion of those contracts which defeats the purpose of clearing payroll.
I guess I would try to re-sign Kim and Profar and trade either Arraez or Cease (maybe both) to get clearly under the CBT and try to add some lower cost replacements (maybe in the trades). Not likely they sign Arraez or Cease long term after 2025 so move them and get immediate value back.
#273 · July 18, 2024, 1:48 pm
If they went below the CBT this year and reset the penalties are we sure they will try to remain under going forward?
IMO we keep Profar and ALL the pitching and maybe let Kim go.
We have a full infield without him and still good defensively other than Arraez at 1B....but a good 1B could be found for a lot less than resigning Kim.
Not that I "want" to let him go....just thinking we may be at that point.
#274 · July 18, 2024, 2:31 pm
I believe that if we don't agree on arbitration figures by mid-January 2025, the arbitration hearings will commence around the end of January/early February 2025. By that time we should know whether we are in the ballpark on Free Agents Kim and Profar and whether Sasaki is going to sign with us.
As much as I like Arraez and Cease both Kim and Profar are highly respected/loved in the clubhouse and I would go after those free agents before doing anything else. I think both will give us a Padres discount and both will be for shorter term contracts - maybe 22-25M total for both. That leaves very little wiggle room for Arraez and Cease. As it turns out we didn't give up much for Arraez and I think we won't be asking for the moon in a trade; further, we probably can find ways to get a cheaper DH since Arraez is horrible in the field. In my mind, Arraez is a luxury we can not afford.
We paid a high price for Cease so we might bite the bullet early and then trade him at or before the deadline. It will depend on Sasaki signing with us and the physical conditions of Darvish and Musgrove. We've re-set the CBT this year and who knows what the 2026 CBA will bring so it might be worth a gamble to hold onto Cease as long as we can. Have to get at least one solid major league SP ready arm back for Cease and whenever that is offered and is agreed upon by Preller then that may be when Cease is traded. On the other hand, the salary for King will be more reasonable and be easier to fit into the budget.
Wild card move is a possible trade of Cronenworth but doubt they would go that far to stay within budget.
#275 · July 18, 2024, 3:01 pm
Preller going to be deep into the juggling the alternatives … maybe deep into the winter but would not rule out Preller having a good feel on the end state of the options and could spring a trade of Arraez and/or Cease “early”.
Do want a legit defensive SS … if not Kim then not sure I am comfortable with Bogaerts returning to SS for the next 4ish years. However, there could be a scenario where the Padres trade Cease or Arraez and get a low cost / 3+ year control SS (with a defensive focus) and let Kim walk. If the deal is Arraez, should be able to come up with a much lower cost DH/1B who works well enough. Minus Kim and Arraez should drop them under the CBT.
Probably at the end of 2024 the Padres will have a good read on Musgrove and Darvish as they project into 2025. Maybe skirting the rules on early agreement they could have a pretty good read on Sasaki (Jan 15th signing?). If those three are falling in line … Cease could be dealt in Dec … should be the better trade chip (better return) than Arraez.
Sort of going in circles with — if this, then that. I would be comfortable with resigning Profar and Kim (each should be lower cost than Arraez or Cease) plus Arraez and Cease are likely gone after 2025. Going with Profar / Kim and trading Arraez / Cease would put them comfortable under the CBT … offense would only need a 1B/DH type to replace Arraez at a much lower cost (should be achievable) and the dice gets rolled on SP without Cease but there will still be some financial flexibility to land the 2025 version of Lugo, Martinez, or King … pitchers at lower cost with something to prove as SP.
Preller will have his hands full.
#276 · July 19, 2024, 9:31 am
Two weeks to the trade deadline. Things should get interesting.
#277 · July 20, 2024, 6:47 am
Focus will be on RP; last nights game with the Cleveland showed why. Bats will wake up and SP is sufficient. Also don't want to give up a guy like De Vries for a rental SP.
#278 · July 20, 2024, 7:54 am
Quote from Randy Manese on July 20, 2024, 6:47 amFocus will be on RP; last nights game with the Cleveland showed why. Bats will wake up and SP is sufficient. Also don't want to give up a guy like De Vries for a rental SP.
If it is a rental would not even consider dealing Salas, DeVries, Snelling, or Lesko … even some others … and should not need to. Rentals generally don’t command a major return.
With Darvish out (and the Padres not paying his salary) … they should have payroll space to take on a “larger” rental contract this lowering the return in theory.
With the expected “problem” with the 2025 CBT hard to see them going for a player with a large salary projected for 2025.
Outside chance they could offer up a “better” set of prospects if the player they get is maybe in his 1-3 control years at league minimum and will be lower cost for the next 3 control years.
However, if “chasing” the WC and a high risk of not catching … not sure any move is justified.
#279 · July 20, 2024, 7:09 pm
Cosgrove in a rehab start at Lake Elsinore and looked electric. Ball was dancing all over the plate with incredible multiplane breaks. If he keeps this up, and stays healthy, could be that key piece in the bullpen from the left side - supporting Morejon and Matsui.
#280 · July 20, 2024, 9:20 pm
Quote from Randy Manese on July 20, 2024, 7:09 pmCosgrove in a rehab start at Lake Elsinore and looked electric. Ball was dancing all over the plate with incredible multiplane breaks. If he keeps this up, and stays healthy, could be that key piece in the bullpen from the left side - supporting Morejon and Matsui.
Finally, some good news from the minors for a change! Thanks Randy.
Who do you guys see getting the start the next time the number 5 spot of the rotation is up? I’m thinking that it should be Gabe Mosser from AAA. Has been pitching very well.