Quote from Randy Manese on May 4, 2024, 10:10 am

I think Solano does come up as the RH hitting bench piece.   Both Pauley and Rosario go down for now; I think Padres like Wade's combination of speed, defensive flexibility and acumen, plus a little bit of hitting/OBP he can add to the bottom of the line-up - likely not the first one off the bench as a PH but certainly as a PR.  Still looking at a little more turnover in the RP staff, but if all the SP are back and healthy we can live with our rotation.    Possibilities include Lake Bachar (R), Javien Sandridge (L) and Omar Cruz (L) plus bringing back Cosgrove (L); if Jacob's (R) arm is okay, he could also surprise but currently lacking control.

Had to get money with Arraez to keep under the CBT threshold, so that's probably why it cost us 3 position player prospects with potential but really only one (Head) who I could see develop over the next 4-5 years as an everyday major league player.  Go looks like a bust at this point and you have to remember that Marsee and Martorella sparkled in their 2nd year but were very experienced college players for the leagues they played in most of 2023.  2024 is starting to expose some of the adjustments they will have to make to go further in the game.

Quote from BoosterSD on May 4, 2024, 10:36 am

I like the idea of leaving Tatis, Crone, and Machado in place in the line up. I could live with either Arraez or Profar at 1st and 5th. Although, with a little more power, even if its in the form of doubles, maybe Profar makes more sense at 5 than Arraez.

So, Arraez, Tatis, Crone, Machado, Profar, Bogaerts, Merrill, Campusano, and Kim.

My big question is how is the team better served defensively.

Machado 3B, Kim SS, Crone 2B, and Arraez at 1B, with Bogaerts at DH.

Or

Machado 3B, Kim SS, Bogaerts 2B, and Crone 1B, with Arraez at DH.

I guess it boils down to is Arraez better at 1B than Bogaerts is at 2B?

Quote from fenn68 on May 4, 2024, 10:44 am

Don’t know what Solano would get in the ML portion of his deal … being a veteran likely more than league minimum. At the same time don’t know the “cash considerations” portion of the Arraez deal but before that adjustment only about $4.5MM under the CBT. Then factor in the potential $1.5MM Profar should get via incentives.

5 months left in the season … 3 months before the trade deadline … and keeping under the CBT does appear as a hard objective (be it by the the team or the league) … so careful managing the remaining money is paramount. Not sure want to tap some of that now for a bench piece when maybe an injury to starter in a different position may make filling that position a priority. E.g. catcher, centerfield.

For now can live with the RHH bench being Rosario and Azocar (who could go to LF and Profar to 1B in needed). Of course if Solano has a contract like Profar … and that is being prorated based on when he is recalled … might wait until the last moment before he can opt out but then switch him in for Rosario … assuming he is hitting in EP.

 

Quote from BoosterSD on May 4, 2024, 10:50 am

Quote from WindsorUK on May 3, 2024, 7:56 pm

Another thought: Arraez to 2B, Bogaerts back to short.....or Boston???

How much money do Padres eat in sending Xander back east?

I agree, I have long stated on here that the Bogaerts signing was just a bad fit, for too long, at too much money.

If you wanted to seriously look into shipping Bogaerts back to BOS, here is where you would start.

BOS offered 6 years at $160M (AAV of $26.67M) . SD signed him for 11 years at $280M (AAV of $25.45M). A difference of 5 years and $120M. Now Im sure BOS knew they would have to go longer than 6 years, probably could have agreed on 9 years. So at an AAV of $26.67M for an additional 3 years that is $80M. The difference between that and SD is $40M.

So I would guess that SD would probably have to send between $40-50M to BOS plus a decent prospect or two for BOS to take back Bogaerts.

Quote from fenn68 on May 4, 2024, 11:00 am

Given this roster and what is looking to me as Shildt’s preference to keeping a set line-up … not shuffle players around the line-up and not do LH/RH platoon as a standard practice … think we should see a pretty stable 1-9 batting order.

Yes, some changes due to injuries / rest / and maybe some specific match-ups as the season moves on but always falling back to the set base.

IF Shildt does make a change to the baseline order … more likely a longer term plan … eg. Someone up someone lower. Probably not the past game by game shuffle.

As for a RHH alternative for Cronenworth … not likely. Shildt could see an advantage over the course of the season exposing Cronenworth LHP consistently maybe improving his production … since even loss likely he would want to yank Cronenworth every time a LHP comes into relieve. Sort of what he has said about running Merrill out there vs everyone.

 

Quote from fenn68 on May 4, 2024, 11:14 am

Quote from BoosterSD on May 4, 2024, 10:50 am

Quote from WindsorUK on May 3, 2024, 7:56 pm

Another thought: Arraez to 2B, Bogaerts back to short.....or Boston???

How much money do Padres eat in sending Xander back east?

I agree, I have long stated on here that the Bogaerts signing was just a bad fit, for too long, at too much money.

If you wanted to seriously look into shipping Bogaerts back to BOS, here is where you would start.

BOS offered 6 years at $160M (AAV of $26.67M) . SD signed him for 11 years at $280M (AAV of $25.45M). A difference of 5 years and $120M. Now Im sure BOS knew they would have to go longer than 6 years, probably could have agreed on 9 years. So at an AAV of $26.67M for an additional 3 years that is $80M. The difference between that and SD is $40M.

So I would guess that SD would probably have to send between $40-50M to BOS plus a decent prospect or two for BOS to take back Bogaerts.

Doesn’t BOST have a new front office? Would guess a front office that does not want Bogaerts back … and certainly not at anything near the salary / years from the past given his 2023-24 performance and age. (Those prime years justified … in theory … the length of the deal).

If Story ever gets healthy they have their SS and Grissom is their future 2B … why waste any money on an under performing … aging … no longer SS … with an injury (wrist) concern? If they needed a SS wait until the winter and sign Kim (healthy and superior defense) to a much more favorable deal.

If Bogaerts was a FA after the season … and how the FA market worked last winter … doubt he could exceed (maybe even get) five years and $100MM which would take him to about age 37.

 

Quote from BoosterSD on May 4, 2024, 11:25 am

12:21PM: The Marlins are eating almost all of the roughly $8.5MM owed to Arraez this season, ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez reports (X link).  San Diego will owe Arraez only the MLB minimum salary for the rest of 2024, so between this arrangement and moving Go’s salary, the Padres look to have actually reduced their luxury tax number with this trade.

This trade looks even better now.

Quote from fenn68 on May 4, 2024, 11:36 am

Quote from BoosterSD on May 4, 2024, 11:25 am

12:21PM: The Marlins are eating almost all of the roughly $8.5MM owed to Arraez this season, ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez reports (X link).  San Diego will owe Arraez only the MLB minimum salary for the rest of 2024, so between this arrangement and moving Go’s salary, the Padres look to have actually reduced their luxury tax number with this trade.

This trade looks even better now.

Yikes! Now that opens up a lot of other doors as the season progresses.

If the Padres are not ready to rely on unproven rookies if a critical need emerges .... they now have the flexibility to add a quality "rental" at a prorated portion of the annual salary and without using premium prospects.

No hurry ... need to be sure of where the need emerges considering future injuries ... but does open the door for a Solano / Rosario switch.

 

Quote from LynchMob on May 4, 2024, 6:18 pm

What an excitement that Luis Arraez has added!  3-for-3 to start his Padres' tenure!