Quote from fenn68 on May 5, 2024, 9:32 am

Along the same lines … Padres must be seeing more than many of us … last year they take a SS in Tatis and put him in RF, result platinum glove. This year they take a SS who has never played the OF in Merrill (as a 20 year old rookie) and he is sitting #5 in dWAR among ML CF.

All is not perfect … in LF Profar is #3 in WAR based on being #1 wRC+ … good but he is a lowly #23 in dWAR suggesting why we see Azocar as a defensive replacement in late innngs. Still with Arraez locking down DH and no better options all around that Profar … the Profar- Merrill-Tatis OF seem set.

Quote from Randy Manese on May 5, 2024, 10:22 pm

Wolf had his best game of the year and it was in El Paso.  Although they brought up Vasquez, it seems like this is just a band aid job; I have more confidence in Wolf and even more confidence in Mazur.  We'll see how Vasquez does on Tuesday, but we'll need to score a lot of runs that day to keep him in the game.

By the way Cosgrove came into the game and was awful - believe there may be  something physically wrong with him because he doesn't look like the same guy as last year.

Quote from 3fingersplit on May 6, 2024, 12:13 pm

Just a couple of thoughts going into Chicago…Arraez can certainly hit but I thought his lack of range at 2nd base showed yesterday…not for a lack of effort but he isn’t Kim, Boegaerts or Jake playing the keystone but then again he was no worse than Odor last year…Jake is playing a great 1b but maybe a flip with Arraez when Shildt wants to play him…Arraez at 1b, Jake at 2nd, Kim at SS and Manny at 3b with Boegaerts in the DH spot. Looking at this batting order on paper is pretty impressive but they don’t play on paper…these guys can give teams fits when they all get going and heat up

Regarding Musgrove…you knew it was bound to happen with a elbow because nobody and I mean nobody can throw the amount of breaking balls that Joe throws and not have a elbow problem show up…I’m praying 🙏 that it’s nothing serious from a structural standpoint and it’s just a strain but I’m thinking he will be down for 6-8 weeks and hopefully he can recover and get back into the rotation. It’s a bummer because his last outing was one of his best in the last year…he is an absolute bulldog on the mound and he can eat innings. His swing and miss is amazing and it works on the heads of opposing hitters…they know it’s coming and they still can’t get a good swing unless of course he hangs a breaking ball and then it’s going to get hit hard but that happens to every big league pitcher.

Jackson Merrill still impresses me…for a guy that young to have that good of a bat to ball swing and be able to go foul line to foul line is just amazing and that young man is only going to get better and better and his play in CF has been much better than I expected…he is just a very good ball player. He is going to be here for a long time unless he literally falls off a cliff and when the time comes that he plays SS I think he will only get better because that’s his natural position.

Last thought is Jurickson Profar…he is the perfect example of how playing on a team that has so much confidence in him has made him into a very valuable asset to this team…his outfield play has been better than Soto, which isn’t hard to do because I thought he was a average to below average LF but his bat hid his defensive liability, and what Profar has brought to the plate from both sides has been a blessing so far and hopefully he will continue to make his presence known besides being a great clubhouse guy.

I like the way this team has been put together with the regulars and what they have on the bench…would have been nice to keep Rosario up because I like his game but he will get a lot of AB’S down and that’s only going to make him better when he comes back up and the same for Pauley…these guys are keepers. I wish we could have kept Marsee and Head but if Arraez does what he has always done then this will turn out great and it sure beats the hell out of that head scratcher of a trade for Adam Frazier.

Oh well…Padres vs Cubs today 😃⚾️

Go Padres!!!

Quote from fenn68 on May 6, 2024, 4:52 pm

Conventional thinking is that teams play better at home but the 2024 Padres are not playing that way (no idea why):

Hitting:

Home: 233/303/397

Away: 288/348/428 (think best AWAY stat in ML)

Pitching:

Home: 4.70 ERA

Away: 3.78 ERA

That is a big differential. PETCO is not the pitcher’s park it used to be and even if it was that does not explain the pitching.

Should the Padres petition the league to play more AWAY games … less HOME games … for a better chance of the playoffs?

Quote from fenn68 on May 9, 2024, 1:02 pm

Rationally this does not make a lot of sense BUT that never stops me … would the Padres be better off retuning Bogaerts to SS and Kim to 2B … with the boost (potentially) in offense outweighing the drop in defense? Consider:

Bogaerts:

2023 … SS … 285/350/440 … 7.1 dWAR

2024 … 2B … 213/269/296 …

Kim:

2023 … 2B … 260/351/398 … 9.1 dWAR

2024 … SS … 211/315/373 …

Just seems odd that the two players they switch positions BOTH plummet offensively … and even if we are not thrilled with Bogaert’s defense at SS, stat wise he is not BAD (either at SS or 2B) and Kim is good at both slots.

Is the “marginal” improvement in defense, since they are both still in the middle INF and playing every day, worth the huge drop in offense IF you can potentially link cause and effect? Do we have a hidden mental issue here?

 

Quote from fenn68 on May 10, 2024, 4:28 am

40 games in and at .500 the Padres are sitting bouncing around that last Wild Card slot. This with little production from Bogaerts, Kim, Machado … and even Tatis offensively (at least well below expectations) … and little from the injured Musgrove. Add that the 9th hitter in the line-up was weak until the add of Arraez. Collectively that group SHOULD heat up in the next 2 months and push the Padres into a strong Wild Card position.

If in a strong Wild Card position in July … and estimating about $10MM under the CBT … trade deadline could be interesting. Adds would be at only 30-40% of the contract for CBT purposes so could land one (or more) real impact adds. Probably would focus on “rentals” given the 2025 potential payroll restraints and should require less prospects to be dealt to get the deal done.

Baring injuries shuffling priorities … probably a SP to bump Waldron (higher motivation if Musgrove does not fully return to top performer level) and, of course, RP depth. Too early to focus on specifics as to who will be available (and pitching well).

In a playoff push … do not really see gambling on any of the internal prospects if they can get a proven veteran instead … and fit that in the payroll. Also have to consider injuries in AUG/SEP may require use of those internal prospects so they maybe are more strategically used as insurance while continuing to develop in the minors.

What would upend this a bit is the injury / performance of Musgrove … if he remains out / ineffective … combined with Waldron … the need for a move on another SP might be accelerated. Mazur has been effective in AA (pitcher’s ballpark in SA) but lately both Bergert and Snelling have tapered off from hot starts.

Preller does not want to move too soon before really knowing the what will be the highest priority down the stretch … not wanting to burn all his payroll flexibility early … or before some targets are made available by the other teams (at a fair price). On the other hand, if fading in the Wild Card race, can’t wait too long lest they fall too far behind. Fine line to walk by Preller to time getting a plus add for a “fair” return.

Coming attractions!

Quote from dusty on May 10, 2024, 8:24 am

I, too am interested in how early he pulls the trigger. It draws a fine line between overpaying - in terms of talent to help the team sooner than later and to make sure you get your guy and paying more in salary - and thinking you have a need that may fill itself as the season progresses. Although a high leverage reliever and a bat with pop for the bench/backup catcher or outfielder I don't think ever hurts or helps itself unless we think Cosgrove will figure things out and be the arm he was last season.

As for starting pitcher, do we wait for an arm down in the minors to be ready such as Mazur or give Waldron another chance or Wolf a second audition? Or do we make a move for someone like Fedde, Anderson, Gray, or Kikuchi? I would think Gray is definitely out of our price range but the other three are all intriguing

Quote from fenn68 on May 10, 2024, 9:25 am

A part not up to Preller is how the teams that have the players he may target approach making a trade for (indeed if that player is available). Their GM may just see waiting to deal closer to the deadline gets more teams bidding and get a better return. Doubt Preller wants to just give a team what they want while not assessing if there are any other bidders. At the same time if his "targets" are not available early ... might not want to drop down to the next tier who would provide less value to the team just to make an early deal.

Interesting game ... Preller got "lucky" MIA had a newbie GM who probably moved before he should and apparently did not reach out to any other teams except KC.

Padres still have a lot to digest on the current roster ... may take the next two months to really understand what they have (and where they stand in the playoff race).

At this point I probably would just hold ... save payroll space and prospects ... and move on a top line SP in July. SP has the least depth and is most subject to injury. Musgrove and Darvish have been hit with injury two years in a row ... Waldron, Vasquez, Brito have not proven even being a strong #5 ... Rich his will be available but don't think that is the answer. A fair chance the Padres may need (want) to add two SP ... one to upgrade for the #5 and one to cover an injury to one of the #1-4. Even if that does not happen ... need to keep the money / prospects in case it does play out that way.

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on May 10, 2024, 10:37 am

Just heard Sean Burroughs collapsed and died while coaching his Sons little league game...he was just 44 years old.