Quote from MrPadre19 on September 18, 2023, 12:40 pm

The Padres are "fourth" in the NL in run differential.

Run diff. is a pretty good indicator of a teams quality.

How many do you score vs. how many do you allow.What it doesn't tell you is "when" you score them.

You'll never convince me that chemistry and attitudes and team leadership is the reason we've lost every extra inning game and most of our one run games.

It just doesn't happen.

Call it bad luck or call it something else...but Tatis,Machado,Soto,Bogaerts et. all are not grounding into DP's and striking out late in close games because of how the roster is constructed or because of Manny's lack of leadership or any other intangible reason.

It's just baseball....the better teams don't always win.

Quote from fenn68 on September 18, 2023, 3:27 pm

Apparently Manny has just said he was leaning towards having the elbow surgery maybe before the end of the season … nothing else seems to be working. About 6 months recovery … so ready sometime during ST.

That add a bit of 3B uncertainty … never really know how quickly (and effectively) anyone returns from surgery. Might have some influence who the Padres have coming to ML camp in ST.

Quote from fenn68 on September 22, 2023, 4:25 am

Report has the Padres adding RHP Joe Espada (from EP) today. Easy to make 40 man room with options to go to 60 day IL … not sure who is moved off the 26 but R.Hill would seem the leading candidate.

Espada (26) has been in the MiL for sometime (since 2015) as a SP/RP but recently primarily a RP. Signed as a MiL FA. Good 2023 split between SA/EP … 35 games / 83.1 innings with a 2.81 ERA. Up probably as a multi inning RP.

He seems to be more a fill until the better options emerge … with a pretty open 40 man roster over the winter makes it reasonable to retain him rather than let him return to FA. Again not a lot of ready in system options and not good news for any of the AAA 40 man roster pitchers who were bypassed (Morejon, Groome, Reynolds).

Quote from LynchMob on September 22, 2023, 12:51 pm

Quote from fenn68 on September 22, 2023, 4:25 am

Report has the Padres adding RHP Joe Espada (from EP) today. Easy to make 40 man room with options to go to 60 day IL … not sure who is moved off the 26 but R.Hill would seem the leading candidate.

Espada (26) has been in the MiL for sometime (since 2015) as a SP/RP but recently primarily a RP. Signed as a MiL FA. Good 2023 split between SA/EP … 35 games / 83.1 innings with a 2.81 ERA. Up probably as a multi inning RP.

He seems to be more a fill until the better options emerge … with a pretty open 40 man roster over the winter makes it reasonable to retain him rather than let him return to FA. Again not a lot of ready in system options and not good news for any of the AAA 40 man roster pitchers who were bypassed (Morejon, Groome, Reynolds).

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/09/padres-to-select-jose-espada.html

Quote from fenn68 on September 22, 2023, 2:04 pm

T.Hill to 60 day IL ... Hernandez optioned back to AAA (he had a short shelf life).

Quote from fenn68 on September 23, 2023, 4:33 am

If for a moment we can ignore individual player pre-season “expectations” and contracts and just focus on actual 2023 production … Padres should be in the playoffs given in the NL the pitching (ERA) ranks #2 in the league and offense (OPS) ranks #6.

That sort of again makes one cautious about full season macro stats and begs for a deeper level of analysis … impact of “timing” of accumulating those stats and the impact of an imbalanced roster (top heavy / black holes). That also applies to individual players. At this point Soto, Machado, Tatis, Bogaerts, Kim, and the Campusano/Sanchez due are all above league average in OPS but Cronenworth, Grisham, and the DH slot are significantly dragging the team down. Actually to the national perspective who have not been watching every Padre game the key players will look really good: Soto (32 HR/ 101 RBI / .932 OPS); Machado (30 HR / 87 RBI); Tatis (25 HR / 28 SB only 4 CS); Kim (36 SB 5th in MLB and a better than average OPS).

Rolling back in our “pre-season” expectations and the players’ history … with all the core players returning for 2024 … have to believe a much more productive offense without any changes. That is the good.

The bad, the #2 pitching staff is on the verge of getting gutted with no clear equivalent replacements.

Padres are 4 losses out of a playoff slot … that should generate a lot of “IF” debate on what could have switched to take 5 losses to 5 wins the season. Having to use Weathers and R.Hill in starting roles due to injuries was a disaster (no depth), setting up the DH with Cruz / Hill / a collection of others provided little production … even with this frustrating offense improving those two areas (the quality depth issue) would have vaulted the Padres into the playoffs … that might be as much a commentary on the Padres as on the other Wild Card contenders (they are not all that good either).

Quote from MrPadre19 on September 25, 2023, 11:35 am

So it's looking like the pre season expectations and all the bravado from compiling a "star studded" lineup was just too much pressure on this team.

Then as soon as we get to the last 3 weeks of the season when the playoffs are all but decided they begin to play loose and win 9 of 10.

Too little too late guys.

So maybe next year we won't be expected to be a World Series contender and we can actually play like one?

Is that what happened to 2023?

 

Quote from fenn68 on September 25, 2023, 1:09 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on September 25, 2023, 11:35 am

So it's looking like the pre season expectations and all the bravado from compiling a "star studded" lineup was just too much pressure on this team.

Then as soon as we get to the last 3 weeks of the season when the playoffs are all but decided they begin to play loose and win 9 of 10.

Too little too late guys.

So maybe next year we won't be expected to be a World Series contender and we can actually play like one?

Is that what happened to 2023?

 

Pressure may be part of the trauma of 2023 … but really don’t think the big four … with their history of playoffs, World Series, individual success, big contracts … and maybe most importantly big egos .. felt all that much pressure early in the season as they quickly fell out of contention.

2023 is more likely a combination of issues that where not fully considered before the season by everyone blinded by shiny histories of these stars.

1. The team integration of the returning Tatis (maybe needed 2023 and next winter to get back to being Tatis), the added Bogaerts (1st year with a new team / city. / league is not an easy transition), and a full season of Soto may just have required more time to get them all settled in as a co-existing unit (include Machado accepting he is not the whole team) that would make their daily life (comfort level) such as to support playing to their potential. Maybe not there yet.

2. Most ignored the imbalanced roster that did nothing to support carrying the team when the stars slump (and that will happen every season) or just lengthen the line-up to improve game to game winning odds. Running out a bottom of the line-up of Grisham, Nola / ?, Cruz/Carpenter in the early season and a bench that fell off from there. Basically 1/3 of the line-up was not ML quality. Need a “team” to win over 162 and four super starts just are not enough.

3. Although they got lucky with the production from Wacha and Lugo … again they had nothing to support the staff when the inevitable SP injuries occurred. The use of Weathers / R. Hill was horrible for maybe 13 starts (0 wins and ugly ERAs) then had to stretch for Avila and Waldron. Still had one of the best ERA in MLB (thank you Nieblia).

4. Besides the attempt to blend the big egos of Machado, Soto, Bogaerts, and Tatis and each finding their role … do think they hurt the team by deleting a number of plus clubhouse guys in Profar, Stammen, Manaea, Alfaro who kept the team loose, more relaxed over 162 games.

On an individual basis harder to understand why ALL of the big four at performing below their histories and struggling in the clutch for such an extended run but it is sort of the scenario that builds on itself as individuals start to get frustrated on their performance while none around them are succeeding and providing “coverage” during the struggles.

Yet the 2023 Padres will end the season close to .500 and just a few games out of the Wild Card … so if we buy that analysis … the base is there for an outstanding 2024 if they can land some SP and upgrade a few “fringe” bats. I do believe that Tatis, Soto, Machado, and Bogaerts will all be better in 2024 and that alone should get the Padres 5-10 more wins easily even without any MAJOR upgrade to the other position players.

Quote from MrPadre19 on September 25, 2023, 1:41 pm

The lack of hitting with RISP and our record in close games was our downfall.

No matter the reasoning this is ultimately what did us in.

Run differential and a few individual performances...along with a good defense and top 5 rotation means we should have won more games.

This exact same team(or at least w/o Cruz/Carp/Nola) could go out and win 100 next year without the "bad luck" in close games.

Whether you believe it was bad luck or not....the chances of it happening again next year are about nil.