Quote from BoosterSD on September 14, 2023, 11:36 am

Quote from fenn68 on September 14, 2023, 7:49 am

From a Padres fan perspective … happy a Padre is in the mix for the award and sad that this will spell the end of a talent as a Padre as he prides himself out. Maybe it is the frustration with the team in 2023, maybe some lingering frustration with Snell, maybe the idea that he is going to leave … but minimal local buzz about him in the running for award.

I think that it is frustration that he hasnt been the Snell we expected when we traded for him, the exception being the second half of last season, and most of this season. Where was this Snell the whole time? Did he finally bear down in his walk season?!?! Does he only try when money is on the line?

These are the questions that make me nervous about giving him big money, long term as a GM for any team. Not to mention the Padres that have to be getting to the limits of their check book.

 

Quote from fenn68 on September 14, 2023, 1:22 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on September 14, 2023, 11:36 am

Quote from fenn68 on September 14, 2023, 7:49 am

From a Padres fan perspective … happy a Padre is in the mix for the award and sad that this will spell the end of a talent as a Padre as he prides himself out. Maybe it is the frustration with the team in 2023, maybe some lingering frustration with Snell, maybe the idea that he is going to leave … but minimal local buzz about him in the running for award.

I think that it is frustration that he hasnt been the Snell we expected when we traded for him, the exception being the second half of last season, and most of this season. Where was this Snell the whole time? Did he finally bear down in his walk season?!?! Does he only try when money is on the line?

These are the questions that make me nervous about giving him big money, long term as a GM for any team. Not to mention the Padres that have to be getting to the limits of their check book.

 

Given the lack of success currently with players on long term contracts … and big money committed for years … really worried that in a few years the roster will be a disaster filled with aging players with reduced production clogging up the roster. The underlying thought on long term deals is big success in the early years and live with the outer years. Not working out that way.

Adding more “older” players on expensive long term deals … with no better odds of performance in the near term … has a better chance of disaster in sooner … not just later. Maybe they have already dug a hole too deep.

I would not even consider Snell on a likely 6 year / $30MM AAV for this roster. Probably would not, at this point, consider any expensive add of a 30+ year old for 5+ years. Best to find out first if the current big money signs actually rebound first (or at least which ones) before making more big moves.

Quote from MrPadre19 on September 14, 2023, 2:13 pm

We need pitching...plain and simple.

Especially after this season when several of our top arms are likely to be gone.

If we won't be signing 30 ish year old free agents the only other ways are to trade...or bring up the kids.

I am thinking (depending on who we lose in the rotation) that one of our 5 next year will be one of the young arms currently in the system.

But the other(s)?

This is why,even though I wish to keep him,I believe Preller may make one more trade involving a top prospect and trade Merrill for a young,controllable,cheap,starting pitcher.Think Merrill to Miami for Garrett or Cabrera.

Not specifically.....but something like that.

Again,depends on what happens with Snell,Lugo and Wacha.

I guess there is another option...we could sign older less expensive SP's to 1-2 year deals.I just don't think we'll get as lucky as we did this year with Lugo and Wacha.AJ really needs to find a way to get the guy he wants without giving them an opt out.Those are just killer and never in the Clubs favor

Quote from Jeremy Hill on September 14, 2023, 2:33 pm

One thing that I think gets overlooked in the criticism of Snell's time with the Padres is that he didn't have a normal off-season in 2 of the years. He talked about how he didn't really know when to ramp up his throwing program during the COVID season and the lockout year. With a normal off-season he rounded into form much earlier this year. I also think Niebla has helped him a lot.

Quote from fenn68 on September 14, 2023, 2:43 pm

I would guess they are boxed into taking the club option on Wacha and that is only a 2 year commitment ($16MM is not too bad for his production). That will be decided right after the World Series before FA hits. So Musgrove - Darvish - Wacha is probably the starting point heading towards FA / trade period.

Might see them make a strong push to re-sign Lugo who is older than Wacha and not as productive … probably is pleased with how the Padres (and Niebla) handled him … might (should) be willing to re-sign for stability and a 2 year deal at somewhat less than Wacha.

So, down to a 5th and 6th SP. Internally don’t see Avila, Otto, or Waldron taking #5 … maybe early in the season #6. Unless they want to really gamble … don’t see Bergert, Iriate, Snelling, Mazur, et al ready to START 2024 with the Padres … but good shot at mid-season call-up.

So, if that is the platform … really need only one good option to create a 5 man rotation and that option can be handled with someone on a 1-2 year deal (if you believe in the internal prospects impacting the ML roster in late 2024-2025-2026). If some arrive sooner, pretty sure Wacha, Lugo, and TBD will have trade deadline value if they need to get out of the way.

As for me, would not trade Merrill for a young unproven arm (and will not get a young high upside arm for Merrill in my view) when Padres are sitting with the unknowns of the future of Kim (FA after 2024) and the future of Cronenworth (will he rebound or continue to fade as the new Eric Hosmer). Besides the Padres have their own gaggle of unproven high upside SP. If Merrill is not the starting 2B in 2025 … could be starting in the OF (post Soto).

Better chance to get a “decent” 2024 SP is via trade of Soto or Kim and maybe a more of a gamble with a trade of Grisham (with some secondary pieces).

Quote from BoosterSD on September 14, 2023, 2:57 pm

Quote from Jeremy Hill on September 14, 2023, 2:33 pm

One thing that I think gets overlooked in the criticism of Snell's time with the Padres is that he didn't have a normal off-season in 2 of the years. He talked about how he didn't really know when to ramp up his throwing program during the COVID season and the lockout year. With a normal off-season he rounded into form much earlier this year. I also think Niebla has helped him a lot.

Valid points, and should be considered. However, even his last season in TAM 2019 was not near his 2018 or 2023 seasons. In fact, if you look at his overall career, 2018 and 2023 are the outliers, not the norm.

So IMO its really buyer beware on Snell and his next contract, which version of Snell are you getting? The 2 CY quality years out of his 9 season career, or the other 7 of 9 seasons of barely over 120 innings and an ERA of closer to 4 than 3?

Quote from fenn68 on September 14, 2023, 3:16 pm

For me Snell’s history (in his 20s) is one of inconsistency … not a basis in my mind to sign him well into his mid-30s on a 6 year deal for about a $30MM AAV. Clearly not on a team already burdened with long term big money contracts. Does not have the probability of a positive cost / benefit outcome.

His $30MM can be spread out to build a better 26 man roster … more focus on the TEAM not the individual … already have their quota of super stars.

Quote from BoosterSD on September 14, 2023, 3:21 pm

I guess that begs the question, is Snell really a #1 SP? OR is he more a #2/3 that is having a really good season.

IMO, SD doesnt not really have a #1 and hasnt for years. Darvish and Musgrove are fringe #1 guys, probably closer to really dominant #2's. So we showed last season, that you can get by with multiple, effective #2s and a good offense.

So maybe we dont need to break the bank for a Snell or even a Nola, just get another dominant #2 ala Darvish and Musgrove, and maybe be able to afford two of those guys.

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on September 17, 2023, 7:37 am

I guess people can look at the same result and see different rationales. The Padres’ 2023 v 2022 is a good example. 2022 89-73 (playoffs) followed by 2023 (71-79 YTD). Many are citing losses in 1 run games and frustration of extra innings games as “bad luck” … maybe in part. Machado made some comments that said they are basically the same team as 2022 (they are not) and 2023 is an outlier.

It is just possible the 2022 result was purely a result of “good luck”? Reality of the players would have suggested a much lesser result. Maybe that got everyone overly optimistic going into the winter and 2023.

Consider the offense (OPS) was 15th in MLB for 2022 (.700) and IMPROVED in 2023 (.739) but stayed at #15. Pitching (ERA) was 11th in MLB for 2022 (3.81) and stayed about the same (3.90) which actually improve their MLB rank to #5. At best the 2022 team should have been a .500 club. Probably the 2023 team should be the same given the player production (not past performances).

Took a look at the 2022 major roster pieces (based on AB) … take about luck and players performing above talent … consider:

#3 Profar …LF … (.722) … 2023 COLO (.699)

#6 Nola … C … (.650) … 2023 (.452) and out due to injury

#7 Hosmer … 1B (.727) … released after 94 AB (.610)

#8 Voit … 1B/DH (.733) … released after 68 AB (.549)

#9 Myers … RF (.713) … released after 127 AB (.540)

#10 Alfaro … C … (.668) … minors after 48 ML AB (.504)

then lesser playing from the following: Bell; Mazara; Abrams; Drury; Alcantara; Cano; Ruiz; Thompson; Rooker; Liberato.

That is a picture of the whole (wins) being greater than the sum of its parts (player production). Luck? Chemistry? Looks like a team that would have collapsed if returned in that form for 2023.

Reverse that for 2023 with what we believe is superior talent (full year Soto, return of Tatis, add of Bogaerts) … but a losing record … bad luck … bad chemistry … over rated talent … but the whole is appearing to be less than the sum of its parts.