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2023 Season

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Agree that the offense will be much more potent with just the current core enhanced by the emergence of Campusano then “minor” tinkering at DH (and maybe CF).

The risk shifts to the top 5 SP staff that has a chance to turn into a top 2 (Musgrove and Darvish) both coming off injury and zip coming up from the minors for 2024.

Offense improves to playoff quality as originally visioned … and SP descends to mediocrity if the focus of the organization does not immediately refocus on the future.

I was hoping I could somehow edit the name of this thread and change it to 2024 to keep Henrys name up here as a type of remembrance.

No luck.

 

The 2023 Padres have:

  • a batter w/ 125+ BB (Soto)
  • a batter w/ 25+ HR & 25+ SB (Tatis)
  • a starter w/ 200+ K & a sub-2.50 ERA (Snell)
  • a reliever w/ 75+ K & a sub-1.50 ERA (Hader)

No other team in MLB history has had more than 2 of those 4 in one season.

San Diego is 78-80.

 

This,as everyone here knows….is called “Padresing”.

 

While Snell has pitched lights out since May, and will deservedly win the NL Cy Young, I have a hard time getting on board with guys who are more worried about their rest( read: Hader) than the teams goals.

I'd be really happy to see the Pads try to extend Seth Lugo. He'll be a great deal less than Snell. Plus he has less wear and tear at 32 than other guys since he's been relieving not starting( innings and pitch counts not terribly high)

Although as a fan … not happy with players (and their agents) setting their agenda for playing or not playing … I can see this, in part, as an expected outcome after some teams have burned out players then just threw them away … ruined careers … cost them money. Teams will continue with new players but individuals have a short shelf life and shorter window of making premium money … so a business calculation by BOTH the team and the player. Some would argue that the player might know his body better (and actually care) than a team that only sees a current win and cares little about the future. Not all teams … but enough to make some players cautious … distrusting.

 

Lugo will be interesting … he has defied most by not only being effective as a SP but being able to log as many innings as he did and being effective to the end. That should elevate his market given all the teams that need SP.

Maybe some will be worried about age and the fact that this was just a one year showing … but still supply and demand will get him a much better contract that anyone would have projected last winter.

No idea on the free market or how far the Padres will go given the lower payroll plus the impact of a multi-year commitment.

Just using Manaea and Clevinger from last winter (both were lesser than Lugo going to FA) … have to expect Lugo to be holding out to something above $12MM per year and at least 2 years (maybe 3). May not get that but should be close. Will be 33 next year … so this is his one big shot at major FA deal and likely to maximize the deal.

I'm looking forward to seeing what happens with Wacha, Lugo, and Martinez( moreso than Soto or Kim).

With Musgrove and Darvish at 1 and 2, I'd be happy with these 3 filling out the rotation. With Waldron pitching well, and Avila showing glimpses, not too bad at the 6 and 7 spots either.

I'm sure whoever our GM is this winter, they'll certainly be looking for another Seth Lugo type signing. Bring in a veteran trying to resurrect their career.

Quote from WindsorUK on September 29, 2023, 6:29 am

I'm looking forward to seeing what happens with Wacha, Lugo, and Martinez( moreso than Soto or Kim).

With Musgrove and Darvish at 1 and 2, I'd be happy with these 3 filling out the rotation. With Waldron pitching well, and Avila showing glimpses, not too bad at the 6 and 7 spots either.

I'm sure whoever our GM is this winter, they'll certainly be looking for another Seth Lugo type signing. Bring in a veteran trying to resurrect their career.

Yep, that is a critical path issue for a winning team in 2024. Expect Wacha, Lugo, and Martinez to be FA after the season (options will be declined) … and to resign them all it would take multi-year contracts and in some combo between $35-40MMM / year. Probably not cheaper for an established veteran of similar talent … so with the payroll issue not likely to retain all three and Padres will have to seek on 2024 version of a Lugo / Wacha gamble.

Other teams will be bidders … so Padres may have to set a priority order and push to get an early signing to avoid having the player(s) signed out from under them … unless they are indifferent as to who returns and who goes. That could be an issue if the budget and GM are not settled by November (when FA starts).

Well,it wasn't that long ago that all we hoped for were "meaningful games in September".

Obviously not enough any more but it is what it is I guess.

 

Ironic … many said don’t think about the playoffs until the team gets to .500 … tonight the Padres get to .500 (80-80) on the same night they are officially eliminated from the Wild Card.

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