Quote from fenn68 on September 7, 2023, 2:21 pm

Is it possible that the Padres just send Otto to AAA (he has the option) and keep R.Hill for the rest of the season? … does not really make much difference to the season and maybe some respect to Hill and his career.

Still add Profar to replace Gamel.

Quote from fenn68 on September 7, 2023, 4:47 pm

Quote from fenn68 on September 7, 2023, 2:21 pm

Is it possible that the Padres just send Otto to AAA (he has the option) and keep R.Hill for the rest of the season? … does not really make much difference to the season and maybe some respect to Hill and his career.

Still add Profar to replace Gamel.

Well Otto was optioned to EP … so maybe R.Hill stays.

As expected Profar has been called up (taking Gamel’s slot) but not as expected Eguy Rosario is also being called up … not sure position player is taken off the 26 man roster (Batten, Azocar, or is there another IL pending?)

Quote from fenn68 on September 8, 2023, 1:12 pm

Somewhat a pointless exercise ... somewhat showing that "stats" don't always translate into winning ... took a look at the wRC+ for the main Padres vs league wRC+ for their position ... consider:

+38% ... Soto (LF) ... 145 v league at 105

+28% ... Sanchez (C) ... 115 v league at 90

+25% ... Kim (2B) ... 121 v league at 97

+18% ... Bogaerts (SS) ... 112 v league at 95

+16% ... Machado (3B) ... 111 v league at 96

+12% ... Tatis (RF) ... 118 v league at 105

-8% ... Grisham (CF) ... 91 v league at 99

--17% ... Cronenworth (1B) ... 92 v league at 111

Hard to wrap my mind around the Padres having 6 of the 8 positions being better than the league average (and by a fair amount) and yet generate a frustrating offense. Would have thought the "below expectations" set of players would, at this production, still have been a compelling offense enough to cover Grisham and Cronenworth ... and with the SP at least enough to be a .500 club. Did not include DH with its never ending run of players but collectively well below the league (105).

Maybe the lack of bench / part time players was an issue ... but how do they deal with the all or nothing production and get that sorted out of overall season stats to really detect the weak links?

On the flip side, if the Padres believe 2023 is an aberration from the real production levels of this line-up (and maybe they have to believe that) and a 2024 rebound to their expectations is probable ... a strong case to stand pat. Don't get sucked into knee-jerk reactions and trust the decisions leading into 2023.

That would allow them to put full focus (and money) on the SP with only minor tinkering with the bench / DH. Re-sign Snell, Wacha, Lugo probably delivers better options than the unknowns on the FA market since they (with Musgrove / Darvish) delivered one of the most productive SP staffs in MLB. Plus no real reliable internal options except maybe for a #6-7 SP as needed.

From one perspective ... standing pat (and signing the three SP) may be the best route to making the playoffs and progressing to the World Series. Tinker around the fringe. Can always dream on mega moves ... but making those moves in reality may be very very unlikely with unknown results (see Bogaerts).

 

Quote from fenn68 on September 10, 2023, 2:30 pm

To follow the previous narrative with more fun with stats that don’t seem to match on field performance, To a degree they support the Preller moves last winter as hard as this is to believe.

Padres in 2022 were 89-73 (16 games OVER .500) and deep in the playoffs.

Padres in 2023 now are at 67-77 (10 games UNDER .500) and fading quickly. 26 game change.

So consider

1. Both SP and RP have basically the SAME ERA in both years even with discarding Clevinger / Manaea and adding effective Wacha / Lugo. Pitching was not the problem for that level of decline.

2. So, consider OPS by position to evaluate the offense:

LF … +142 … the full time Soto

SS … +110 … Bogaerts surpassed Kim

2B … + 80 … Kim moves over and improves

RF … + 73 … Tatis returns

CF … + 54 … Grisham actually has improved

C   … + 51 … Sanchez / Campusano exceed Nola / Alfaro

DH … (34) …

1B … (55) … Cronenworth could not match Hosmer / Voit / et al

3B … (72) … Machado had a major fall for a MVP type 2022

So, Preller constructed a roster that kept an effective pitching staff even with multiple moving parts and actually improved 6 of the 9 offensive positions (even with players underperforming) … and ended up worse by 26 games so far. That is just hard to believe this team would yield that result.

 

 

Quote from Alex Tamayo on September 10, 2023, 6:26 pm

I believe that one key aspect is that they couldn´t keep the requiered level of energy when playing againist some cellar dweller teams

Record against <.500 ball clubs of same division and wild card (with a spot or in the hunt) teams

LAD 44-20

ARZ 40-22

SF   32-31

PHI 37-23

CHC 40-25

MIA 40-25

CIN 32-27

Only SF is having some issues, but the others have clearly a positive record

Quote from BoosterSD on September 11, 2023, 7:39 am

Quote from fenn68 on September 10, 2023, 2:30 pm

To follow the previous narrative with more fun with stats that don’t seem to match on field performance, To a degree they support the Preller moves last winter as hard as this is to believe.

So, Preller constructed a roster that kept an effective pitching staff even with multiple moving parts and actually improved 6 of the 9 offensive positions (even with players underperforming) … and ended up worse by 26 games so far. That is just hard to believe this team would yield that result.

When you look at the loss record in 2023, most of the difference from 2022 is in the 1 run games and extra innings. Since the regulars have all improved over the 2022 mark, and yet the record doesnt reflect that improvement. That points me to something/someone that was on the 2022 roster and not on the 2023 roster, had more of an influence somewhere other than stats.

The main 3 players that are missing from 2022 to 2023 is Profar, Alfaro, and Hosmer. None of which had eye popping stats, but there must have been something in at least one of those three that moved the needle in those close games.

Im sure that this is a very intangible piece that is difficult to pinpoint, but there has to be something there right? I mean, what else would explain the huge difference in close games this season?

Quote from fenn68 on September 11, 2023, 9:24 am

Quote from BoosterSD on September 11, 2023, 7:39 am

Quote from fenn68 on September 10, 2023, 2:30 pm

To follow the previous narrative with more fun with stats that don’t seem to match on field performance, To a degree they support the Preller moves last winter as hard as this is to believe.

So, Preller constructed a roster that kept an effective pitching staff even with multiple moving parts and actually improved 6 of the 9 offensive positions (even with players underperforming) … and ended up worse by 26 games so far. That is just hard to believe this team would yield that result.

When you look at the loss record in 2023, most of the difference from 2022 is in the 1 run games and extra innings. Since the regulars have all improved over the 2022 mark, and yet the record doesnt reflect that improvement. That points me to something/someone that was on the 2022 roster and not on the 2023 roster, had more of an influence somewhere other than stats.

The main 3 players that are missing from 2022 to 2023 is Profar, Alfaro, and Hosmer. None of which had eye popping stats, but there must have been something in at least one of those three that moved the needle in those close games.

Im sure that this is a very intangible piece that is difficult to pinpoint, but there has to be something there right? I mean, what else would explain the huge difference in close games this season?

Agree … I will add Stammen and Manaea … both of which were reported as positive clubhouse / teammate influences.

2022 the Whole was greater than the sum of its parts while 2023 the Whole seems to be less than the sum of its parts … so hard to truly define the causes but those intangibles brought by members of the team probably do create a catalyst for the entire team to relax and over perform.

I know the stats only guys don’t think that way … but something that has to be considered.

I don’t know if this team has anyone (but probably need more than one) who provides those intangibles. Has to be a natural part of the player … can’t fake it.

Quote from MrPadre19 on September 12, 2023, 12:40 pm

Mr.P. has reached the end of his rope apparently.

Sundays game against the Stros was the first game all season I didn't see one pitch.

I watched last night until it was 7-4 then went to bed...missed the big comeback.

If it had been July I would have been up till 2.

Any win against the dodgers is a good win...this team is just not going to consume me the rest of the way is all.

Now we're back to being interested in only the offseason moves and what that will look like.Could be anywhere from standing pat and letting Snell and Hader go to signing Snell and going after  a few top free agents again....who really knows?

That being said....GO JAGUARS!

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on September 12, 2023, 1:41 pm

Padres put R. Hill on waivers … don’t expect anyone to claim him … so the Padres can retain him on the 28 man or just release him (that make the most sense) and add anyone from the minors (don’t think any of the IL arms are ready to be re-activated).