Quote from Notmyopic on March 3, 2023, 12:59 pm

Quote from Randy Manese on March 3, 2023, 11:49 am

I'm in the "not sign" an extension for both Hader and Snell.  As Jeremy indicates, very few RP have staying power and even though that might be the case with Hader, it's a gamble.  Further, need the AAV money that Hader and Snell free up to pursue Soto, Ohtani, etc.  In fact, I wouldn't give them a qualifying offer but because one or both may accept and then we'd been in the same kind of boat as an extension.  Rather, let them go to free agency and then see what our options are.

I agree with you except if they have good years.  I give qualifying offers if they have good years as I bet they wouldn’t take it

Quote from Notmyopic on March 3, 2023, 1:03 pm

Quote from Henry Silvestre on March 3, 2023, 7:56 am

On a roster note.. Dahl is looking more and more like the RF starter 1st 20 games with every game that passes this spring..

I agree, with Engel hurt, Dahl has looked good and if he keeps it up, seems to obvious choice and with the highest upside

Quote from Randy Manese on March 3, 2023, 2:08 pm

If Dahl is brought up, someone likely has to come off the 40 man.  I think we give up Rule 5 pick Jose Lopez; doesn't seem to be someone we would carry on a championship roster, especially given his early spring training struggles.

Quote from 3fingersplit on March 3, 2023, 4:19 pm

Quote from Henry Silvestre on March 3, 2023, 7:56 am

On a roster note.. Dahl is looking more and more like the RF starter 1st 20 games with every game that passes this spring..

Dahl looks like a keeper for sure…solid outfield play and has a nice swing and approach at the plate and lets face it…he is one hell of an upgrade over Matt Beaty from a year ago…I see him sticking on this roster barring any unforeseen circumstance

Quote from dusty on March 4, 2023, 10:09 am

Snell, IMO is as good as gone. Padres will definitely get a pick from him as well. Before the rumors of Hader possibly getting an extension, I toyed with the possibilities of BOTH Ohtani signing and Soto signing an extension. Padres can sign both while staying under the luxury tax threshold of 273 mil… in future years. If they have already punted the idea of staying under for this season which they may have then I think if they can get an extension on Soto before the season starts then it gives them more flexibility and an easier chance moving forward of staying under the threshold. My take is getting an extension done on Soto (17 years 612 mil) and signing Ohtani for (12 years 500 mil)

Luxury Tax numbers 2024:

Ohtani: 41.6

Soto: 36

Manny: 31.8

Boegarts: 25.45

Tatis: 21.3

Musgrove: 20

Yu: 18

Hosmer: 12.9

Suarez: 9.2

Martinez: 8.6

Lugo: 7.5

Kim: 7

Wacha 6.5

Carpenter 6

Crone: roughly 6

Grish: roughly 4

Nola: roughly 3

Hill: Roughly 2

Morejon:1

Crismatt: (roughly 850k)

Those salaries for luxury tax purposes add up to 268.75 mil for 19 rostered players. Add another 6 players at league min (assuming all at league min which I believe the minimum for 2024 will be 740k) that adds 4.44 mil bringing the total to 273.19 mil. I add 12 mil to take into account players added for injuries/trades/margin of error on arbitration numbers and that brings us to 285.19 meaning they would need to shed 12 mil from that number. How do they do it?

Trade of Kim for prospects/league minimum players (add 1 league min player to take spot trims 6.26 mil)

Either 1 of Wacha, Martinez, Lugo Or 2 of Carpenter/Cronenworth and Hill/Nola is traded for prospects/league min players

I believe this gets you to roughly 261 mil PLUS 12 mil to work with for midseason and injury adds, incentives along with margin of error differences in arbitration numbers.

 

Quote from dusty on March 4, 2023, 10:21 am

To follow up on extension numbers. If you think 17 years is just completely stupid (you have an argument but really it’s just to keep the number down) and if it’s all about being the first $500 million player then trim that number to 14 years and 504 mil which keeps him at 36 mil per. A lot of people believe he is getting 40 mil per out in New England (where I live). But if you get him signed before the season starts, the 23 mil he’s getting this season and roughly 30 mil for next season helps bring down his future luxury tax number down and overall AAV under 40 mil while paying him 40 mil per over the bulk of his deal

Quote from Randy Manese on March 4, 2023, 12:11 pm

If Teheran and Honeywell both make the opening day roster, then I'm thinking Batten will be DFA'd, pass through waivers and then outrighted to El Paso.  If Honeywell doesn't make it, then Teheran takes his spot.  The other likely scenario is that Preller will be fielding calls for some of his pitching depth and/or Engel to open a 40 man slot for Teheran.  Don't think Odor makes the opening day roster but will play a bench role as the season progresses.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on March 4, 2023, 12:35 pm

Quote from Randy Manese on March 4, 2023, 12:11 pm

If Teheran and Honeywell both make the opening day roster, then I'm thinking Batten will be DFA'd, pass through waivers and then outrighted to El Paso.  If Honeywell doesn't make it, then Teheran takes his spot.  The other likely scenario is that Preller will be fielding calls for some of his pitching depth and/or Engel to open a 40 man slot for Teheran.  Don't think Odor makes the opening day roster but will play a bench role as the season progresses.

I think we may see Lopez (Rule V) returned or traded for to keep him but off the 40.. 1st.... Teheran is not on 40 so he takes Lopez spot...

If Dahl makes it .. likely B Sullivan or Batten (or both) if Odor is added

I think after that it's Knerr... but I could see a Crismatt trade or even a Luis Garcia one (or both) perhaps for down the line non 40 golden ticket or 2... Teheran takes 5th with Musgrove missing a start or 2 (10IL) to start the yr out of precausion/full 💯 heal.. Lugo 6th.. then when Musgrove is back..they slide to 6th and 7th (long RP/spot starter) ..

Hader/Suarez/Pomz/Hill/Wilson/Weathers/Lugo...

Yu/Snell/Martinez/Wacha/Teheran/Groome

To start the season.. Musgrove in IL 10..Morejon stretches at AAA or. AA.. when Musgrove comes back.. Weathers or Groome goes down...

* assumes Garcia and Crismat (roughly $4.3mil combined) get moved

Would still have a lot of arms Baez/Felipe/M Lugo/Cosgrove/Morejon/Khner/Kerr/Castillo/Font/Hamels,Honeywell etc etc.. providing very good depth

Quote from 3fingersplit on March 4, 2023, 4:56 pm

I know alot of you think Campusano is the real deal and yes he launched one today for his first hit of the spring but this guy is NOT a good defensive catcher by any stretch of the imagination.

It’s sad but Salas is probably already a better defensive catcher than Campusano…I’m just hoping that nothing happens to Nola.