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2023 Season
#861 · August 25, 2023, 3:51 am
Clearly I am biased towards moving Soto and clearing that $30MM/1 year deal believing that he will not be re-signed by the Padres. Not sure the Padres are so motivated … their criteria for dealing him may be more the issue than finding a taker.
If the Padres have a clear objective on other FA signings (money is always a key) to improve the long term view of he team … Soto becomes a debate over clearing money in 2024 OR eating that with the new spending (mega payroll) for one big shot at the playoffs before Soto goes. If they assume they cannot get any quality prospect in return for Soto (and they may not for only a 1 year control) … comes down to the Padres need (financially) in 2024.
Yeh, see the NYY as a primary player if they only have to give up money … hard to see them being OK with their 2023 (last place in the AL East, losing record) and having that play out in NY … coupled with a bad OF (except for Judge) and the FA they will let go. Same goes (maybe less so) for some other “just missed in 2023” teams such as TOR or SF … maybe BOST.
In a more reality check … I expect Soto to be the Padres LF in 2024 with Preller not wanting to “give him away for nothing” and Siedler to push the payroll up a bit for one big shot with new FA signings for 2024 then let Soto walk after the season. Basically roll the dice on the offense recovering to their histories in 2024 (and prove Preller right) plus no real alternatives (cheap ones) to Soto, and spend to bolster the pitching. Keep in mind there is not a great FA market coming. Ohtani aside, with that approach they can re-sign Snell, keep Wacha, and add a decent 5th SP while remaking under $300MM.
#862 · August 25, 2023, 7:14 am
Quote from fenn68 on August 25, 2023, 3:51 amClearly I am biased towards moving Soto and clearing that $30MM/1 year deal believing that he will not be re-signed by the Padres. Not sure the Padres are so motivated … their criteria for dealing him may be more the issue than finding a taker.
I think you underestimate the value of Soto, even after this season. In all of MLB he is #6 in OBP at .399, #9 in OPS at .881, and top 30 in SLG% , HRs, and RBIs.
Take a look at his home and away splits for 2023.
Home - .227 BA/ .390 OBP/ .389 SLG/ .779 OPS.
Away - .292 BA/ .408 OBP/ .580 SLG/ .988 OPS
His away numbers make him top 5 in almost every category. Clearly he does not like hitting in Petco, and there would be many teams that look at the away numbers and would drool. I think not only would they take player at the money he will get in arb, they will still send 1 top 10 prospect , and 2 additional MiL prospects in the 15-20 range as well.
Especially NYY for the reasons that you mentioned, they will be fairly desperate to improve their record, their OF, and appease the rabid NYY fan.
I would imagine that if NYY wanted him, we could get either Spencer Jones or Jasson Dominguez and maybe two SP like Richard Fitts and Clayton Beeter. Or something in that range of prospect return.
#863 · August 25, 2023, 7:33 am
I'm with you on Soto.
However,I get the frustration from watching him every day.
His defense and baserunning are not good.(doesn't mean they couldn't improve)
His lack of aggressiveness at the plate,especially with 2 strikes is an issue.But mainly an issue because he has a better idea of the strike zone than the Umpires so he takes a ball with 2 strikes many times is called out anyway.
But he is still "just" 24!
Most players are Rookies at this point...this kid has 27 WAR already!
What if he gets even better?
What if he starts swinging at those close pitches instead of taking them?
What if the elect balls & strikes system turns 20 of those K's into BB's each season?
If he stays healthy he's a guaranteed 1st ballot Hall of Fame player...and he's still just 24.
I would say it's foolish to let a HOF player who hasn't even reached his prime seasons (age 26-30) go...unless they just won't stay.
Being the Padres we probably will let him leave...and he'll end up with 100+ WAR for his career and end up in Monument Park in the Bronx
#864 · August 25, 2023, 8:25 am
Not sure "let him leave" is the issue ... more does he want to remain and if willing to stay at what price.
As most can tell I am a cost / benefit evaluator and don't focus only on the individual player but the construction of the whole team ... short and long run.
Given the numerous high cost / long term contracts in place ... crimping future moves (I do think limits on spending) pretty convinced a long term $400MM+ deal for Soto ... given all the IFs ... does not help to build a winning team anytime soon.
Not sure at what price I would keep Soto (yes I do think he has value) but much lower that what he would get as a FA with Boras his agent.
Given his career numbers ... although glossy on the surface ... do fall short in his performance "late and close" and "high leverage" ... basically has not shown to be clutch and that does not support the lofty price tag he will get in my mind. Will that change ... maybe ... but a $400MM+ gamble given the holes in this team and the other big contracts seems the wrong bet.
Maybe that all comes together in NY ... hope so for Soto's sake (don't dislike him as a person) ...
As I said ... likely Padres hold on to Soto for 2023 just because they want to contend and there are no great alternatives to be hand while at the same time trying to add SP, a 9th productive bat, and maybe an upgrade in CF.
#865 · August 25, 2023, 3:34 pm
With Ohtani a serious question mark going forward…his value has certainly dropped as a pitcher then it makes resigning Blake Snell a no brainer in my opinion and heard something interesting about Boegaerts…something I had said over a month ago…move him to 1B and play Kim as your everyday SS.
Boegaerts has already locked up a long term big money contract and if he really wanted to help this team then a move to 1B only helps the total sum…playing for the name on the front of the jersey instead of the name on the back. Tatis did it and has been great in RF.
Kim is a gold glove SS and he should have won it last year…even if you don’t extend him, which I hope the Padres do, Jackson Merrill is on the horizon and can play SS with more range than Boegaerts
Soto is Soto and only being 24 points to him getting better unless he wants just way stupid money then trade him and get whatever you can
#866 · August 25, 2023, 6:34 pm
Drew Pomeranz sighting!!!!!!!!!!
Scheduled to start tonight in LE on a rehab.
#867 · August 26, 2023, 4:41 am
Quote from fenn68 on August 25, 2023, 6:34 pmDrew Pomeranz sighting!!!!!!!!!!
Scheduled to start tonight in LE on a rehab.
Pomeranz goes 1 inning … 3 batters … 3 strikeouts!
Just enough tease to wonder if the Padres make him a SEP 1 call-up as the rosters go to 28? He should have one or two more minor league rehabs before SEP 1. Not as though any great RP options for the call-up.
Padres should be clearly out of the Wild Card race and even though Pomeranz has frustrated everyone with his injuries over the course of his 4 year contract … Padres may want to see him at the ML level in SEP. Why? At age 35 for next season coming off 4 injury years, Pomeranz’s market value as a FA will be minimal (lucky to get a minor league deal to make good). So, given that the Padres have stood by him during his injuries and with Hader departing as a FA, might make sense for both the Padres and Pomeranz to agree to a low base / incentive laden deal for 2024 and a 40 man roster slot since the 40 man will have a lot of room this winter. From Pomeranz’s view … just getting a deal quickly will be a positive but staying with an organization that knows him and his injury may be better for his handling over the winter and in ST.
I understand that players (agents) don’t think this way but after what the Padres paid over the past four years for no benefit … Pomeranz should be flexible about signing a club friendly deal.
#868 · August 27, 2023, 4:45 am
Well the Padres are not doing anything to make a run at the Wild Card but as part of pure torture … the other Wild Card contenders are also regularly losing and not pulling away … only the shrinking remaining games are working to take out the Padres (now 7 games out).
For a depressing note … SD is now tied with WASH (61-69) for 10th place in the NL Plus for the stats folks … SD run differential is +57 / WASH run differential is -92. 149 run difference … same record.
Nothing makes sense about this Padres’ season.
#869 · August 27, 2023, 4:52 am
In a showcase for being smart in player evaluation and roster construction … and not just spend on the expensive toy … consider the top 2023 CBT payrolls:
1. NYM ($376MM) … 59-71 … 12th place in NL
2. NYY ($299MM) … 62-67 … 10th place in AL
3. SD ($292MM) … 61-69 … 10th place tie in the NL
with
24. WASH ($132M) … 61-69 … and basically went to a rebuild mode last winter
Some luck to be sure but did the big spenders have some faults in their decision making processes?
#870 · August 28, 2023, 11:38 am
On Sep 1 the Padres can add 2 players as the rosters expand to 28. Who?
Would guess 2 pitchers especially if Suarez gets his 10 game suspension and is out the first week of SEP. A few to pick from but none all that compelling. Maybe lean towards who may be useful in 2024 T.Hill is rehabbing (not well so far) but as a veteran probably will be one. Then maybe a pick'em between Kerr, Morejon, and Waldron.
We are seeing some other clubs releasing some fringe FA to be (or just not in 2024 plans) to bring up some prospects ... sort of a look / see for 2024. Should / would the Padres take the same tact?
Gamel, Cooper are going to be FA and, of course, there is Carpenter. Not much hitter-wise BUT a look at Rosario (who is on the 40 man) might make sense. Going one step further ... do they want to add Ornelas to the 40 man before he becomes a FA at the end of the minor league season ... don't have to call him up and not likely a 40 man roster problem over the winter.
From the pitching side ... if there was anyone to call up ... Garcia, Rich Hill are FA to be.