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2023 Season
#671 · June 28, 2023, 1:23 pm
Quote from Jeremy Hill on June 28, 2023, 12:07 pmQuote from fenn68 on June 28, 2023, 10:50 amQuote from Jeremy Hill on June 28, 2023, 10:20 amI think WAR is probably an overrated stat, but it also confirms what I'm sure we all know. Going off of Fangraphs rankings we have...
Manny 2022-2nd 2023-95th
Bogaerts 2022-15th 2023-41st
Cronenworth 2022-34th 2023-134th
Bogaerts is propped up by his hot start, but is falling fast. Their struggles are more than enough to eliminate the gains from Kim and Soto's improvement and having Tatis back. That's without getting into Nola, Grisham and the revolving cast of characters at DH. Add it all up and we have a mediocre team with some individual greatness.
WAR (as are all summary stats) are severely flawed. With WAR for position players it is (in my mind) way out of reality with the evaluation of the defensive factor and its weighting. I like wRC+ more but it too is flawed by not taking into account when in game flows those stats are accumulated. Pitchers are evaluated based on peripherals but not results.
Organizations do need stats to evaluate players ... performance and projection ... but that requires deeper dive analytics evaluated by individuals full time.
There's a pretty big difference between flawed and useless. I agree it's flawed. I also think it's a pretty good measuring stick for individual performance. Tatis, Soto and Kim being good while the team struggles doesn't make it a bad stat.
At one level looking solely at the individual, their rise or fall in WAR (given algorithms remained the same) gives some indication of how the player is improving or declining. Not definitive by any means but maybe an entry view into analysis of any change.
The other is the relative position of the individual in relationship to his specific position … eg 1B vs 1B, SS vs SS. If nothing else, that allows some reality of a player not having an elite WAR in respect to all players … may be still near the top in their position … in this era helps evaluate CF and C.
#672 · June 28, 2023, 8:16 pm
Quote from BoosterSD on June 28, 2023, 8:15 amQuote from MrPadre19 on June 28, 2023, 8:07 amThis 4th place team that is 10.5 out of first and 5 games under .500 has THREE players in the top TWELVE in WAR.
Goes to show what a useless stat WAR is, doesnt it?
Depends on context.
It’s useful for individuals performance but it’s still a team game.
Check the list of all time WAR leaders and it’s pretty spot on.
#673 · June 28, 2023, 8:21 pm
Quote from fenn68 on June 28, 2023, 9:05 amWhy the Padres are not performing is debatable and there is a fair expectation that … at some point … the core players will move towards their historical norms … maybe not all and clearly no idea when.
If they don’t all fully recover in 2024 and beyond … that core 7 under big long term contracts will drag down the team’s ability to build a competitive roster and win. Consider the following are under contract through 2027 (four more years) … players / age in 2027 / CBT salary / Cash salary:
- Machado (35) … $31.8MM / $39.1 MM
- Bogaerts (34) … $25.5MM / 25.5MM
- Tatis (28) … $21.3MM / $25.7MM
- Musgrove (34) … $20.0MM / $20.0MM
- Darvish (40) … $18.0MM / $15.0MM
- Suarez (36) … $9.2MM / $8.0MM
- Cronenworth (33) … $11.1MM / $12.3MM
That is consuming $136.9MM in CBT salary space for 7 players … except for Tatis all moving past their prime. Only Musgrove and Suarez are FA after 2027.
With no short term support from the farm system … all the pressure is on this core to deliver in the next four years or ????????
Not much short term help but in 25’ it could be arriving.
Merrill and some Starters at minimum.
I imagine a couple “surprises”.
#674 · June 29, 2023, 3:06 am
Quote from MrPadre19 on June 28, 2023, 8:21 pmQuote from fenn68 on June 28, 2023, 9:05 amWhy the Padres are not performing is debatable and there is a fair expectation that … at some point … the core players will move towards their historical norms … maybe not all and clearly no idea when.
If they don’t all fully recover in 2024 and beyond … that core 7 under big long term contracts will drag down the team’s ability to build a competitive roster and win. Consider the following are under contract through 2027 (four more years) … players / age in 2027 / CBT salary / Cash salary:
- Machado (35) … $31.8MM / $39.1 MM
- Bogaerts (34) … $25.5MM / 25.5MM
- Tatis (28) … $21.3MM / $25.7MM
- Musgrove (34) … $20.0MM / $20.0MM
- Darvish (40) … $18.0MM / $15.0MM
- Suarez (36) … $9.2MM / $8.0MM
- Cronenworth (33) … $11.1MM / $12.3MM
That is consuming $136.9MM in CBT salary space for 7 players … except for Tatis all moving past their prime. Only Musgrove and Suarez are FA after 2027.
With no short term support from the farm system … all the pressure is on this core to deliver in the next four years or ????????
Not much short term help but in 25’ it could be arriving.
Merrill and some Starters at minimum.
I imagine a couple “surprises”.
Plus potentially some players acquired at that trade deadline this year may be ready to step up. On the other hand, in 25 both Soto and Kim are FA.
Padres have some good prospects but they do need some time yet to develop … get to the ML and adjust before them make an impact (in most cases) … so looking more at 2026 before feeling the impact of these prospects in critical mass.
However, if the returning core bounce back to their norms … adding a few of the top prospects playing effectively can jump the Padres right back into the contenders role.
#675 · June 29, 2023, 3:30 am
Anyone else worried about Manny? Half way through the season and, offensively, a shadow of himself.
Compared to his career … BB% down, K% up, wRC+ down to 93 from 122 (that is over a 20% drop). What is in focus for me is that even as his hitting is getting better recently … it is favoring opposite field hits which at one level is good but in Manny’s case a major part of this value was his power and that is way down. Expectations are in the 30+ HR zone and in 2023 tracking more near 20.
We know Manny wants to play every game even if injured and does not like to talk about being injured BUT with the loss of power and lack of pulling of pitches … has to be a question given his long history.
#676 · June 29, 2023, 4:07 am
In the IF world … consider that if the last in team for the Wild Card (LAD) just play at their current pace they will hit 90 wins.
For the Padres to hit 90 wins (and tie) they have to go 53 - 29 (at the winning level of a TB / ATL) for the rest of the season while hoping none of the teams ahead of SD don’t also go on a winning run (even if LAD go on a losing streak).
Possible … yes but if that winning streak does not kick in now, the odds of hitting 90 wins drops rapidly.
#677 · June 29, 2023, 1:07 pm
This team is D-O-N-E
What a freaking waste of a year.
#678 · June 29, 2023, 1:18 pm
Quote from fenn68 on June 28, 2023, 9:05 amWhy the Padres are not performing is debatable and there is a fair expectation that … at some point … the core players will move towards their historical norms … maybe not all and clearly no idea when.
If they don’t all fully recover in 2024 and beyond … that core 7 under big long term contracts will drag down the team’s ability to build a competitive roster and win. Consider the following are under contract through 2027 (four more years) … players / age in 2027 / CBT salary / Cash salary:
- Machado (35) … $31.8MM / $39.1 MM
- Bogaerts (34) … $25.5MM / 25.5MM
- Tatis (28) … $21.3MM / $25.7MM
- Musgrove (34) … $20.0MM / $20.0MM
- Darvish (40) … $18.0MM / $15.0MM
- Suarez (36) … $9.2MM / $8.0MM
- Cronenworth (33) … $11.1MM / $12.3MM
That is consuming $136.9MM in CBT salary space for 7 players … except for Tatis all moving past their prime. Only Musgrove and Suarez are FA after 2027.
With no short term support from the farm system … all the pressure is on this core to deliver in the next four years or ????????
It would be interesting to know the decision making process that lead to these deals … all (except Tatis) in the past 12 months with Musgrove last August and the others over last winter.
Someone (or combo of individuals) had to first convince Siedler to open his pocketbook this much … convince him that these were the right players to sign long term / big money. Pretty sure Siedler was willing to spend but had to be convinced the players involved were worth the contracts. I guess it could be all Preller … but have to think others had to be pushing for some of these deals.
Except for Tatis and Musgrove whose deals are large but don’t take them into their retirement … have issues with the length / dollars for all the rest especially when viewed collectively. Manny maybe (although even that one did not sit well with me) but the others?
All in on winning NOW is not working out all that well … usually does not.
#679 · July 1, 2023, 9:55 am
The following may add to optimism for 2023 … frustration for 2023 … or just more “confusion” but for the month of June:
Record: 12 - 15 ,,, not good BUT
Team Batting Average: .257 … 9th best in MLB
Team OPS: .760 … 7th best in MLB
Team ERA: 3.52 … 6th best in MLB
Team Earned Runs Allowed: 94 … 6th best in MLB
Another sample of common stats not supporting results … essentially the Padres were the 6th best team in MLB (hitting and pitching) for the entire month of June … and came out with a losing record 3 games under .500.
Big disconnect and puts a focus on clutch / timing / consistency … all are in question. Also shows how little we appreciate how poor the rest of MLB is hitting and pitching.
However, as a nod to the optimist in me … those June stats if carried forward with better timing can lead to a very successful remainder of the season.
#680 · July 1, 2023, 10:53 am
Another piece of optimism is the offense coming out of two players known for defense but not offense … Jun:
Grisham ... 247/315/432 (747) … with his gold glove defense most have contended if he can just hit .220-230 he would be a great asset and among the most valuable CF in MLB given the shortage of quality CF
Kim … 291/367/477 (844) … Kim is near the top of MLB in DRS and outs above average on defense playing out of position at 2B … gold glove quality plus that offense makes him really valuable.
Both are making the “rest of the line-up” after the BIG 5 much stronger and worthy of a contender. Puts a greater focus on the BIG 5 to produce.
Would be very hard to replace either’s production (if remains near that level) given the need to address pitching in 2024.