Quote from fenn68 on June 27, 2023, 3:30 pm

Well, success will rest entirely on the heart of the batting order producing. Even a small improvement offensively ... if the pitching stays as best in the NL ... should get more wins and make a run.

Having said that ... pitching has gone a half of the season with all the pressure on them and always worry that may take to toll on them down the stretch offsetting the any minor improvement in the offense.

Just as the offense had no depth / back-up in AAA ... same can be said with the pitching staff.

Quote from MrPadre19 on June 28, 2023, 8:07 am

This 4th place team that is 10.5 out of first and 5 games under .500 has THREE players in the top TWELVE in WAR.

 

Quote from BoosterSD on June 28, 2023, 8:15 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on June 28, 2023, 8:07 am

This 4th place team that is 10.5 out of first and 5 games under .500 has THREE players in the top TWELVE in WAR.

 

Goes to show what a useless stat WAR is, doesnt it?

Quote from fenn68 on June 28, 2023, 9:05 am

Why the Padres are not performing is debatable and there is a fair expectation that … at some point … the core players will move towards their historical norms … maybe not all and clearly no idea when.

If they don’t all fully recover in 2024 and beyond … that core 7 under big long term contracts will drag down the team’s ability to build a competitive roster and win. Consider the following are under contract through 2027 (four more years) … players / age in 2027 / CBT salary / Cash salary:

1.  Machado (35) … $31.8MM / $39.1 MM
2. Bogaerts (34) … $25.5MM / 25.5MM
3. Tatis (28) … $21.3MM / $25.7MM
4. Musgrove (34) … $20.0MM / $20.0MM
5. Darvish (40) … $18.0MM / $15.0MM
6. Suarez (36) … $9.2MM / $8.0MM
7. Cronenworth (33) … $11.1MM / $12.3MM

That is consuming $136.9MM in CBT salary space for 7 players … except for Tatis all moving past their prime. Only Musgrove and Suarez are FA after 2027.

With no short term support from the farm system … all the pressure is on this core to deliver in the next four years or ????????

Quote from BoosterSD on June 28, 2023, 9:26 am

Quote from fenn68 on June 28, 2023, 9:05 am

Why the Padres are not performing is debatable and there is a fair expectation that … at some point … the core players will move towards their historical norms … maybe not all and clearly no idea when.

I think its fair to say, that no matter who is the GM and/or the manager, ultimately it falls on the players to perform. I do not think it is unfair, especially with all the core players still in their prime, to expect them to live up to the back of their baseball cards.

With that being said, and most of the core guys not living up to their end of the bargain so to speak, someone needs to figure out why they are not performing to their norms.

IMO, this falls on the players for sure. But it also falls on the coaching staff. The coaching staff are the ones that are supposed to say, hey have you tried this, or you are doing this and normally you dont, and that is leading to the lack of results. Now of course we are not privy to those behind the scene interactions.

So is the coaching staff dumbfounded and cant figure something out to correct the underperforming players? Or, are the players not taking the coaching and not putting in the extra work to right the ship?

If its the coaching staff not coming up with ideas/work to correct....then the coaching staff needs to be changed.

If its the players ignoring the coaching/doing the extra work.....that is a whole other set of issues.

But it has to be something for this team to be laying this big of a turd for this long into the season!!

Quote from Jeremy Hill on June 28, 2023, 10:20 am

I think WAR is probably an overrated stat, but it also confirms what I'm sure we all know. Going off of Fangraphs rankings we have...

Manny 2022-2nd 2023-95th

Bogaerts 2022-15th 2023-41st

Cronenworth 2022-34th 2023-134th

 

Bogaerts is propped up by his hot start, but is falling fast. Their struggles are more than enough to eliminate the gains from Kim and Soto's improvement and having Tatis back. That's without getting into Nola, Grisham and the revolving cast of characters at DH. Add it all up and we have a mediocre team with some individual greatness.

Quote from fenn68 on June 28, 2023, 10:42 am

I can see coaches helping players that really want to be helped and are open to new ideas ... that is usually the younger players and the players that are on the bubble to get demoted / released.

Not so sure that the 30 +/- year old ... with years of ML success ... sitting a a mega contract that is guaranteed is all that interested (should be but mega egos tend to get in the way when getting told stuff by the peasants).

Now every player ... even the stars have different personalities and can't blanket all with the same view ... but have to recognize that some have the ego that dictates they want it their way and if not they just shut down. Padres may have some of them. In the past, players like Hedges never altered his terrible approach to hitting and basically said he is here for defense. Players have to want to take coaching and maybe not as many do as fans would want.

Quote from fenn68 on June 28, 2023, 10:50 am

Quote from Jeremy Hill on June 28, 2023, 10:20 am

I think WAR is probably an overrated stat, but it also confirms what I'm sure we all know. Going off of Fangraphs rankings we have...

Manny 2022-2nd 2023-95th

Bogaerts 2022-15th 2023-41st

Cronenworth 2022-34th 2023-134th

 

Bogaerts is propped up by his hot start, but is falling fast. Their struggles are more than enough to eliminate the gains from Kim and Soto's improvement and having Tatis back. That's without getting into Nola, Grisham and the revolving cast of characters at DH. Add it all up and we have a mediocre team with some individual greatness.

WAR (as are all summary stats) are severely flawed. With WAR for position players it is (in my mind) way out of reality with the evaluation of the defensive factor and its weighting. I like wRC+ more but it too is flawed by not taking into account when in game flows those stats are accumulated. Pitchers are evaluated based on peripherals but not results.

Organizations do need stats to evaluate players ... performance and projection ... but that requires deeper dive analytics evaluated by individuals full time.

Quote from Jeremy Hill on June 28, 2023, 12:07 pm

Quote from fenn68 on June 28, 2023, 10:50 am

Quote from Jeremy Hill on June 28, 2023, 10:20 am

I think WAR is probably an overrated stat, but it also confirms what I'm sure we all know. Going off of Fangraphs rankings we have...

Manny 2022-2nd 2023-95th

Bogaerts 2022-15th 2023-41st

Cronenworth 2022-34th 2023-134th

 

Bogaerts is propped up by his hot start, but is falling fast. Their struggles are more than enough to eliminate the gains from Kim and Soto's improvement and having Tatis back. That's without getting into Nola, Grisham and the revolving cast of characters at DH. Add it all up and we have a mediocre team with some individual greatness.

WAR (as are all summary stats) are severely flawed. With WAR for position players it is (in my mind) way out of reality with the evaluation of the defensive factor and its weighting. I like wRC+ more but it too is flawed by not taking into account when in game flows those stats are accumulated. Pitchers are evaluated based on peripherals but not results.

Organizations do need stats to evaluate players ... performance and projection ... but that requires deeper dive analytics evaluated by individuals full time.

There's a pretty big difference between flawed and useless. I agree it's flawed. I also think it's a pretty good measuring stick for individual performance. Tatis, Soto and Kim being good while the team struggles doesn't make it a bad stat.