Quote from Henry Silvestre on May 21, 2023, 4:14 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on May 21, 2023, 1:36 pm

I have always disagreed with those that say “clutch” is not a thing.

Just look at a guy like Alfaro.

Not good enough on every day situations but dang….late inning,game on the line situations he always seemed to come through.

 

Yup me too

273 .429 .364 .793... Odor with RISP... 11 AB's... he needs to play more tbh.. vs harder RHP instead of Kim (when Manny comes back).. maybe a few games in RF to give Nando a few days off throughout the season.. and 2B with Kim at 3B with Manny out, and when giving Manny off days when he cones back..

Quote from fenn68 on May 22, 2023, 5:47 pm

While we all wallow in the poor performances of the Padres top 5 … I thought I would pile on a bit with an view of performance based on high-medium-low leverage situations (per Baseball Reference) for both 2023 and careers tOPS+:

OPS+ sequence H / M / L

Bogaerts …. 105/101/97 (career) … 25/154/76 (2023)

Tatis ……….. 104/102/96 (career) … 223/120/50 (2023)

Machado …. 101/108/94 (career) … 20/65/117 (2023)

Croney …….   97/  82/116 (career) … 49/104/117 (2023)

Soto …………. 95/. 94/107 (career) … 67/151/155 (2023)

Observations:

1. Logical that there will be a regression toward the career numbers … so should see a major uptick in hitting in high leverage situations later in the season.

2. Tatis, Machado, and Bogaerts all perform better over their careers as the leverage gets higher … that is what we want

3. Soto and Cronenworth seem to fade in high leverage situations to below average … that is a concern

4. Stating the obvious … the high leverage performance in 2023 (except for Tatis) is unrealistically low … would think these guys would do better by accident

So, encouraged for the future overall.

Side: given Soto’s numbers that suggest he gains a lot of his lofty stats in low leverage situations but is a bit less than average in high leverage … might that help in the decision to move on from him after 2024 rather than bid that mega contract that he may not be worth.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on May 22, 2023, 8:12 pm

Quote from fenn68 on May 22, 2023, 5:47 pm

While we all wallow in the poor performances of the Padres top 5 … I thought I would pile on a bit with an view of performance based on high-medium-low leverage situations (per Baseball Reference) for both 2023 and careers tOPS+:

OPS+ sequence H / M / L

Bogaerts …. 105/101/97 (career) … 25/154/76 (2023)

Tatis ……….. 104/102/96 (career) … 223/120/50 (2023)

Machado …. 101/108/94 (career) … 20/65/117 (2023)

Croney …….   97/  82/116 (career) … 49/104/117 (2023)

Soto …………. 95/. 94/107 (career) … 67/151/155 (2023)

Observations:

1. Logical that there will be a regression toward the career numbers … so should see a major uptick in hitting in high leverage situations later in the season.

2. Tatis, Machado, and Bogaerts all perform better over their careers as the leverage gets higher … that is what we want

3. Soto and Cronenworth seem to fade in high leverage situations to below average … that is a concern

4. Stating the obvious … the high leverage performance in 2023 (except for Tatis) is unrealistically low … would think these guys would do better by accident

So, encouraged for the future overall.

Side: given Soto’s numbers that suggest he gains a lot of his lofty stats in low leverage situations but is a bit less than average in high leverage … might that help in the decision to move on from him after 2024 rather than bid that mega contract that he may not be worth.

Looking into my crystal ball.. I ask would the Padres (look at pipeline and players ages) be better off adding OF Verdugo + OF Tyler O'Reilly (both 2024-25 FA) + SP/DH Othani (2023-24 FA)

OR

Soto (extension) + Burnes (2024-2025)

For roughly the same $$..

Obviously with 1st option we would have Othani/Soto for ONE season.. then Verdugo + O'Neill with Othani beyond 2024

Which would you prefer..which fits us better?

I think #1 adds 2 extra bats to our starting lineup while #2 just keeps Soto here no adds.. there are risks to #1 because an Othani injury hurts two spots..

Looking at 2025 ..Mortarella 1B/ Xander 2B Merrill SS / Manny 3B/ Jake 1B/ SS/2B/3B/LF Othani DH

Could be a fluid IF mix with Othani DHing 95% of the time..  Jake would be a Swiss army knife semi regular valuable piece

Tatis RF O'Reilly CF Verdugo LF would be more athletic group.. clearly no where near Soto with the bat.. but Othani + Verdugo + O'Neill (combined) vs Soto + Carp +Cruz + Grish (current situation) seems better lineup depth and more consistent bats..

It will also be close to Salas and Zavala time .. so maybe 3 rookies in 2025 .. 1 in 2026?.. or maybe 1 in 2024 (Mortarella) 2 in 2025 (Salas + Merrill) and Zavala in 2026

Likely won't play out exactly like this but a 13 of (by 2026)

Tatis RF

Zavala LF/CF/RF

O'Neill CF/LF/RF

Verdugo LF/RF

Othani DH

Mortarella 1B/DH

Jake 1B/2B/3B/SS/LF

Xander 2B/SS

Merrill SS

Manny 3B

Salas C

Campusano C (or Vet C)

Veteran

--- A good mix of babies (Salas/Merrill/Zavala/Mortarella).. with experienced Vets ..and Captain like Xander + Manny + Othani guys.. with an absolute generational talent entering his prime (27 yrs old)

SP would be pretty solid

1. Othani

2. Yu

3. Musgrove

at the top and top prospects Iriarte/Lesko/Snelling/Mazur/ and others in the mix with Weathers and others

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on May 23, 2023, 2:57 am

I think we need to consider that Siedler’s open check book will not continue without some restraint going forward … especially if this roster does not deliver a legit challenge to the World Series.

Padres have mega money in 7 players locked in through 2027: Machado; Tatis; Bogaerts; Cronenworth; Darvish; Musgrove; and Suarez. From a CBT payroll perspective that is a pretty big number (bigger starting in 2024 with Cronenworth’s new contract adding $7MM to CBT. Then consider Arbitration for Soto should add about $7MM in 2024 before his FA.

Then some focus has to be on either retaining (or replacing) a major chunk of the pitching staff (with no short term internal options) … so net likely an increased CBT for the new group if they want to retain this level of quality. Snell and Hader are FA. Lugo will most likely turn down his player option for 2024 (1 year / $7.5MM). Wacha and Martinez are tricky since to be sure they are retained Padres have club options on each for 2 years / $16MM per year (about $8.0MM increases in CBT for each) but if turned down moves to a player option that in both cases pays them in 2024 less than in 2023 and well below the price tag for a good SP … so expect an opt out and need for replacements. If they try to resign Hader would expect a long commitment adding at another $7MM to CBT.

Then if they really pursue Ohtani ($50MM?) while trying to retain the better parts of the current roster … the payroll increase would challenge the METS for #1 CBT payroll. This without upgrading CF or catcher … that might be a hard sell if the current roster is not a winning roster.

Note that I am not expecting the internal reinforcements to provide IMPACT to the ML roster until 2026 (might arrive sooner in some cases but would not rely on IMPACT out of the blocks).

So, in the near term, the Padres are on the verge of having a roster of 8 highly paid “stars” and 18 AAA support players … not a winning formula and may suggest they add over a broader base to more fully upgrade the entire roster than add another mega paid star or two.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on May 23, 2023, 4:41 am

Quote from fenn68 on May 23, 2023, 2:57 am

I think we need to consider that Siedler’s open check book will not continue without some restraint going forward … especially if this roster does not deliver a legit challenge to the World Series.

Padres have mega money in 7 players locked in through 2027: Machado; Tatis; Bogaerts; Cronenworth; Darvish; Musgrove; and Suarez. From a CBT payroll perspective that is a pretty big number (bigger starting in 2024 with Cronenworth’s new contract adding $7MM to CBT. Then consider Arbitration for Soto should add about $7MM in 2024 before his FA.

Then some focus has to be on either retaining (or replacing) a major chunk of the pitching staff (with no short term internal options) … so net likely an increased CBT for the new group if they want to retain this level of quality. Snell and Hader are FA. Lugo will most likely turn down his player option for 2024 (1 year / $7.5MM). Wacha and Martinez are tricky since to be sure they are retained Padres have club options on each for 2 years / $16MM per year (about $8.0MM increases in CBT for each) but if turned down moves to a player option that in both cases pays them in 2024 less than in 2023 and well below the price tag for a good SP … so expect an opt out and need for replacements. If they try to resign Hader would expect a long commitment adding at another $7MM to CBT.

Then if they really pursue Ohtani ($50MM?) while trying to retain the better parts of the current roster … the payroll increase would challenge the METS for #1 CBT payroll. This without upgrading CF or catcher … that might be a hard sell if the current roster is not a winning roster.

Note that I am not expecting the internal reinforcements to provide IMPACT to the ML roster until 2026 (might arrive sooner in some cases but would not rely on IMPACT out of the blocks).

So, in the near term, the Padres are on the verge of having a roster of 8 highly paid “stars” and 18 AAA support players … not a winning formula and may suggest they add over a broader base to more fully upgrade the entire roster than add another mega paid star or two.

At this moment I would see no reason for the club not to pick up Wacha at $16per.. he has been ace like lately and certainly #3 #4 $$ worthy which is around $18mil..per..

Martinez is trickier cause he does it all.. has pitched just as many innings as Wacha.. has actually been more consistent overall, and frankly dominant at times.. IF he pitches 130-140 innings combined.. then honestly what is the difference (I would say maybe even > value) vs Wacha.. so I would pick up the option... Wacha + Nick =+$16.. Snell =-$16 ($10 CBT).. then just need to replace Snell + Lugo.. Nick + Weathers can do that.. Honeywell can be stretched.. Groome?.. or we can find a similar SP on a similar deal to Wachas or Lugo...

Obviously Othani is a game changer

Quote from fenn68 on May 23, 2023, 5:50 am

Would agree that IF (and that is still a big IF) both Wacha and Martinez continue to perform as they have so far in 2023 the $16MM options will be exercised … maybe a bit over theoretical value but given no good alternatives under control (or with any assurance of adding a FA). So that +$16MM CBT is offset by the departures of Pomeranz and Snell. So a 2024 SP staff of Darvish, Musgrove, Wacha. Martinez, and Weathers … then some large bets on at least one of Honeywell or Morejon holding down the 6th slot … at this point any other internal option is a very, very long shot and not a great bet on a team that wants to contend.

I guess the offsets for the projected CBT $14MM+/- increases for Soto and Cronenworth  could be offset by the departure of Hader.

So basically for the same CBT payroll (3rd highest in MLB) they get the same team less an elite closer, Weathers replacing Snell, and no upgrade of CF, C, 2B, DH … that is OK if at the end of the season the Padres have righted the ship and are in the playoffs but if  end floundering … with no obvious internal significant (reliable) upgrades … how to you improve the team?

Quote from fenn68 on May 23, 2023, 12:41 pm

Although I still believe the Padres will turn it around this season ... at some point ... not to early to be concerned that the Padres falling too far behind to recover to the playoffs ... at least with a high probability. Consider:

1. NL West. LAD are playing at a .612 pace which would get them to 99 wins and AZ is not that far behind. SD is playing at .447 and to match LAD (if they retain that pace) would require a pace of .678 (only TB has played at that level in 2023). Even if LAD fades ... AZ is only running a couple games behind them and would also have to be overtaken. Possible yes ... probably not so much.
2. NL Wild Card. Currently the "last in" is playing at .532 winning percentage. Using the above logic the Padres would have to play .565 the rest of the way to match the last in if they keep the same pace and none of the team in between last in and SD don't also get hot remain ahead of SD. 8 teams so far are carrying a .565+ winning percentage. Clearly with this team the WC is still within reach BUT if the current sub-par performance continues for much longer the odds to make the WC will start to get very long.

A sense of urgency should be at hand. If they don't get their act together SOON we may be discussing being SELLERS at the trade deadline. Hader (FA to be) should be in demand. Soto could be on the bubble with 1 more control year ... moving him would "save" $30MM next year to aim towards Ohtani and probably yield a decent prospect(s) to add depth to the roster. Kim, Carpenter, Lugo, Wacha, Martinez, Garcia, even Snell could be in play ... not all but some and likely not for a big return.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on May 23, 2023, 7:32 pm

2-0 114 to go Lets Go!

Quote from MrPadre19 on May 24, 2023, 5:55 pm

When was the last time we had 3 hits in a row?

April?

Serious question.