Quote from MrPadre19 on May 20, 2023, 8:51 pm

Our ability to sell out Petco is about to change if things don’t dramatically change on the field.

Heading out on a NINE game road trip.

If we don’t win at least 5 we could be in real trouble…..

Quote from MrPadre19 on May 20, 2023, 10:07 pm

The Phillies seem to have turned things around. Cardinals have done so in a big way. The Padres?

Nope… Not even close.

 

Quote from fenn68 on May 21, 2023, 2:03 am

I have no explanation … and would never have thought … the Padres could start 2023 with a lowly 20-26 record and one of the worst offenses in MLB given the proven history of the starting line-up. Never thought ALL the prime bats would under perform their histories … and some so badly.

On a 1-9 run and only 1 game ahead of COLO for last place in the NL West and 4 games out of the Wild Card.

With 106 games to play the Padres have ample time to get their act together and at least capture a Wild Card berth (only 4 games out) … little harder to catch the LAD unless the LAD regress.

 

Quote from Henry Silvestre on May 21, 2023, 7:16 am

Quote from fenn68 on May 21, 2023, 2:03 am

I have no explanation … and would never have thought … the Padres could start 2023 with a lowly 20-26 record and one of the worst offenses in MLB given the proven history of the starting line-up. Never thought ALL the prime bats would under perform their histories … and some so badly.

On a 1-9 run and only 1 game ahead of COLO for last place in the NL West and 4 games out of the Wild Card.

With 106 games to play the Padres have ample time to get their act together and at least capture a Wild Card berth (only 4 games out) … little harder to catch the LAD unless the LAD regress.

 

A win today.. and a good road trip is very much needed to end May

Quote from Henry Silvestre on May 21, 2023, 9:03 am

2023.                   2022 (OPS)

1B Crone .714 ( 22 =..722)    Hosmer. 727

2B Kim .692.   (.708)             Crone .722

SS Xander .770.                  Kim .708

3B Manny. .654.                 Manny. 898

C Nola. .471.                       Nola. 649

CF Grish .659.                      Grish .626

LF Soto .879.                        Soto .778

RF Tatis .825.                       Profar .723

DH Carp .727.                      Voit .733

Cruz .677.                       Bell .587

 

So what gives? 2023 clearly > overall even with 2 seriously down seasons for Nola and Manny...

2022 RISP ...254/.348/.410.   .758 OPS

2023 RISP .. .191/.290/.325.    .615 OPS

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on May 21, 2023, 10:09 am

The difference is the home runs are all solo and the hits are with the bases empty or a runner on 1st.

Not gonna score many that way.

 

Quote from fenn68 on May 21, 2023, 11:24 am

I guess that shows the difficulty of dealing with individual stats (e.g. OPS) that don't really consider how they fit into the team performance. It is pretty important as to when the individual stats are built from a team perspective and that gets lost with just the overall numbers.

In the past a lot of players have built some fine stats by hitting getting hits and HR when the game is out of hand either way. So, when they hit should be a major evaluation factor. RISP is a big tell even though the analytics guys discount it as "luck" one way or the other and a short run phenomenon ... I don't buy it. Players react differently in pressure situations and likely both the pitcher and hitter really are different players.

Not sure any stats really tell the tale but the ones that try to show productive players when the games are high leverage / late and close may suggest a different evaluation of a player than the bulk slash line or OPS or wRC+. Cruz for example has been in 32 games but by my evaluation 4 were big production stat wise and 28 were underperforming ... and that helped total April look great (even thought a lot of down games) and May is a disaster. A good example of the need for productivity to be distributed across the season on just cluster in a few outbursts.

When a team is going bad ... grasping at straws here. Note the Padres are 27th in MLB in runs scored with 175 (and teams usually need to score run to win ... TB is #1 with 282). On the flip side the Padres are good being #8 in fewest runs allowed at 190 (so run prevention is working ... TB is #1 with 160).

Quote from Henry Silvestre on May 21, 2023, 12:19 pm

Quote from fenn68 on May 21, 2023, 11:24 am

I guess that shows the difficulty of dealing with individual stats (e.g. OPS) that don't really consider how they fit into the team performance. It is pretty important as to when the individual stats are built from a team perspective and that gets lost with just the overall numbers.

In the past a lot of players have built some fine stats by hitting getting hits and HR when the game is out of hand either way. So, when they hit should be a major evaluation factor. RISP is a big tell even though the analytics guys discount it as "luck" one way or the other and a short run phenomenon ... I don't buy it. Players react differently in pressure situations and likely both the pitcher and hitter really are different players.

Not sure any stats really tell the tale but the ones that try to show productive players when the games are high leverage / late and close may suggest a different evaluation of a player than the bulk slash line or OPS or wRC+. Cruz for example has been in 32 games but by my evaluation 4 were big production stat wise and 28 were underperforming ... and that helped total April look great (even thought a lot of down games) and May is a disaster. A good example of the need for productivity to be distributed across the season on just cluster in a few outbursts.

When a team is going bad ... grasping at straws here. Note the Padres are 27th in MLB in runs scored with 175 (and teams usually need to score run to win ... TB is #1 with 282). On the flip side the Padres are good being #8 in fewest runs allowed at 190 (so run prevention is working ... TB is #1 with 160).

2022 RISP ...254/.348/.410.   .758 OPS

2023 RISP .. .191/.290/.325.    .615 OPS

 

Yes and No.. we returned.. Soto/Manny/Nola/Grish/Kim/Crone from last year.. I bet if I look up Nola 2022 vs 2023 with RISP there is going to be significant regression..as perhaps with all..lets take a peek

Quote from Henry Silvestre on May 21, 2023, 12:29 pm

Oh Boy...

Nola RISP

2022 .244/.333/.321 .654 35 RBIs in 78 AB

2023 .077/.250/.077 .327. 5 RBIs in 26 ABs

Just RBIs thru 1/3 of the ABs he had in 22 wit RISP should be 12 right now +7 RBIs with the low scoring games we've been involved in is at least 4-5 Wins based on the times and games he has been up with RISP

Even as we suck .. +4 W -4 Ls.. =24-22.. just from Nola's lack of production