Quote from Henry Silvestre on November 11, 2022, 6:12 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on November 11, 2022, 5:53 am

Quote from fenn68 on November 11, 2022, 5:45 am

Looking at Roster Resource’s estimated CBT payroll for the Padres with Suarez included and adjusting that for an Alfaro non-tender … Padres would be sitting about $12MM under the first CBT threshold.

Since it appears that re-signing Martinez is likely … I will guess around $10MM AAV as the #4 SP … after looking at MLBTR estimates on their ranked SP …. Under CBT would be minimal.

IF the Padres want to add another SP and at least legit ML bat … that would be a plus $20-30MM and push level 2 threshold. I am guessing the Padres will not go that route (at the start of the season). If I am reading the tea leaves right … sets up

a. A trade of significant salary and that has to be Hader given the signing of Suarez and the return of Pomeranz … clears enough to make a major signing of a hitter or SP and stay under the CBT and maybe the return supports the other opening at a lower cost than in the FA market.

b. Go with the dominant pen … and gamble on Groome / Morejon / “minor” FA signing for that 5th SP. Trade out of the secondary RP on the roster for low cost upgrade bats plus add some make good FA types at low initial cost (as they did with Mazara and CINN did with Drury). If you buy into the plus impact offensively with the full seasons for Tatis and Soto … maybe those new bats don’t have to be that great.

Padres made the playoffs (and deep) with a less than impressive Manaea, Clevinger for the full season … would Martinez and Groome / Morejon still be an upgrade?

I could see a series of moves that upgrades the team that was in the playoffs and keeps them under the CBT treshold.

If we don't land Senga I wonder if Martinez/DAVIES might be the way to go?

Davies is a innings eating #5 that should be at least better(more consistent) than Manaea was and I don't think he's going to break the bank.

Or,if we sign Senga than forego Martinez and also sign Davies OR run with the in house options as the #5.

 

Would love a bit better Taillon/Walker #4 (if no Senga)..with Martinez who I think signs 3/24 type deal..(don't think he gets $10per)..with that said .. dont discount a trade for a SP (Burnes/Pablo Lopez/ other) for #4..making Martinez resign for #5 and saving big $$ for 1 bat or 1 + 1 lesser $$ one.. something like + Pablo Lopez + Martinez + Abreu 2/32 + Gallo (1/7)

Also if we are able to sign Senga and say trade for Lopez as well as resign Martinez.. I can see a Snell ++ type deal to Jays for Kirk..saving big $$ and upgrading C/DH

Quote from Henry Silvestre on November 11, 2022, 6:19 am

Quote from fenn68 on November 11, 2022, 6:09 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on November 11, 2022, 5:53 am

Quote from fenn68 on November 11, 2022, 5:45 am

Looking at Roster Resource’s estimated CBT payroll for the Padres with Suarez included and adjusting that for an Alfaro non-tender … Padres would be sitting about $12MM under the first CBT threshold.

Since it appears that re-signing Martinez is likely … I will guess around $10MM AAV as the #4 SP … after looking at MLBTR estimates on their ranked SP …. Under CBT would be minimal.

IF the Padres want to add another SP and at least legit ML bat … that would be a plus $20-30MM and push level 2 threshold. I am guessing the Padres will not go that route (at the start of the season). If I am reading the tea leaves right … sets up

a. A trade of significant salary and that has to be Hader given the signing of Suarez and the return of Pomeranz … clears enough to make a major signing of a hitter or SP and stay under the CBT and maybe the return supports the other opening at a lower cost than in the FA market.

b. Go with the dominant pen … and gamble on Groome / Morejon / “minor” FA signing for that 5th SP. Trade out of the secondary RP on the roster for low cost upgrade bats plus add some make good FA types at low initial cost (as they did with Mazara and CINN did with Drury). If you buy into the plus impact offensively with the full seasons for Tatis and Soto … maybe those new bats don’t have to be that great.

Padres made the playoffs (and deep) with a less than impressive Manaea, Clevinger for the full season … would Martinez and Groome / Morejon still be an upgrade?

I could see a series of moves that upgrades the team that was in the playoffs and keeps them under the CBT treshold.

If we don't land Senga I wonder if Martinez/DAVIES might be the way to go?

Davies is a innings eating #5 that should be at least better(more consistent) than Manaea was and I don't think he's going to break the bank.

Or,if we sign Senga than forego Martinez and also sign Davies OR run with the in house options as the #5.

 

I can see Davis (or similar) as the #5 as a veteran low cost option … what that does is allow Groome to continue to develop in AAA (for a mid-season call-up as needed) and not over use Morejon given his very limited history of innings that would be stretched if dropped into a starting role right out of the blocks.

I guess we should not overlook Avila in the mix for that #5 role.

I am convincing myself (if they sign Martinez which appears likely) not to pursue another major SP add.

Focus on two added bats but they don’t need to be major pieces … just competent ML veterans to provide some line-up length and create some depth on the 40 man. Now only 13 position players (if Alfaro non-tendered) on the 40 man and really nothing non-roster on the cusp of the ML leaving a few roster options that I have any faith in as the #8 and #9 hitter.

Good chance we see NO major additional adds without a major trade delete.

 

I think we will go with 6 SP... and Groome/Avila/Wethers and Khner (maybe even Waldron "if that knuckle becomes more and more a ++ pitch" ) could all see a SP assigment or 3 until one claims it

Quote from fenn68 on November 11, 2022, 6:19 am

Given the landscape of adding hitters … might they keep Alfaro (only $3.6MM) as the part of a catcher / DH / 1B mix with Nola and Campusano. He may not catch all that much but his presence is insurance for injury and if they swing Nola / Campusano as C/DH prevents loss of the DH (in game) if the catcher gets injured.

Not a great hitter (good start to 2022) and had injury down the stretch … loved in the clubhouse … can get that clutch hit … can play C/1B/LF/DH so a versatile bench piece.

Put him ahead of Sullivan … Dixon …. Batten … and probably until he proves himself Rosario. He may return.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on November 11, 2022, 6:21 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on November 11, 2022, 6:19 am

Quote from fenn68 on November 11, 2022, 6:09 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on November 11, 2022, 5:53 am

Quote from fenn68 on November 11, 2022, 5:45 am

Looking at Roster Resource’s estimated CBT payroll for the Padres with Suarez included and adjusting that for an Alfaro non-tender … Padres would be sitting about $12MM under the first CBT threshold.

Since it appears that re-signing Martinez is likely … I will guess around $10MM AAV as the #4 SP … after looking at MLBTR estimates on their ranked SP …. Under CBT would be minimal.

IF the Padres want to add another SP and at least legit ML bat … that would be a plus $20-30MM and push level 2 threshold. I am guessing the Padres will not go that route (at the start of the season). If I am reading the tea leaves right … sets up

a. A trade of significant salary and that has to be Hader given the signing of Suarez and the return of Pomeranz … clears enough to make a major signing of a hitter or SP and stay under the CBT and maybe the return supports the other opening at a lower cost than in the FA market.

b. Go with the dominant pen … and gamble on Groome / Morejon / “minor” FA signing for that 5th SP. Trade out of the secondary RP on the roster for low cost upgrade bats plus add some make good FA types at low initial cost (as they did with Mazara and CINN did with Drury). If you buy into the plus impact offensively with the full seasons for Tatis and Soto … maybe those new bats don’t have to be that great.

Padres made the playoffs (and deep) with a less than impressive Manaea, Clevinger for the full season … would Martinez and Groome / Morejon still be an upgrade?

I could see a series of moves that upgrades the team that was in the playoffs and keeps them under the CBT treshold.

If we don't land Senga I wonder if Martinez/DAVIES might be the way to go?

Davies is a innings eating #5 that should be at least better(more consistent) than Manaea was and I don't think he's going to break the bank.

Or,if we sign Senga than forego Martinez and also sign Davies OR run with the in house options as the #5.

 

I can see Davis (or similar) as the #5 as a veteran low cost option … what that does is allow Groome to continue to develop in AAA (for a mid-season call-up as needed) and not over use Morejon given his very limited history of innings that would be stretched if dropped into a starting role right out of the blocks.

I guess we should not overlook Avila in the mix for that #5 role.

I am convincing myself (if they sign Martinez which appears likely) not to pursue another major SP add.

Focus on two added bats but they don’t need to be major pieces … just competent ML veterans to provide some line-up length and create some depth on the 40 man. Now only 13 position players (if Alfaro non-tendered) on the 40 man and really nothing non-roster on the cusp of the ML leaving a few roster options that I have any faith in as the #8 and #9 hitter.

Good chance we see NO major additional adds without a major trade delete.

 

I think we will go with 6 SP... and Groome/Avila/Wethers and Khner (maybe even Waldron "if that knuckle becomes more and more a ++ pitch" ) could all see a SP assigment or 3 until one claims it

Bottomline we need 2 SP.. besides the kiddos

Quote from Henry Silvestre on November 11, 2022, 6:26 am

Quote from fenn68 on November 11, 2022, 6:19 am

Given the landscape of adding hitters … might they keep Alfaro (only $3.6MM) as the part of a catcher / DH / 1B mix with Nola and Campusano. He may not catch all that much but his presence is insurance for injury and if they swing Nola / Campusano as C/DH prevents loss of the DH (in game) if the catcher gets injured.

Not a great hitter (good start to 2022) and had injury down the stretch … loved in the clubhouse … can get that clutch hit … can play C/1B/LF/DH so a versatile bench piece.

Put him ahead of Sullivan … Dixon …. Batten … and probably until he proves himself Rosario. He may return.

We can get a better bat for $3.6 -$4 mil.. not everyone going to get Paid ..and as u mentioned Mazara would be a better bat.. But like Joc 1/6.. Drury 1/min ST invite.. Bats will be available cheap... the key is getting a bit lucky with the right guy not getting signed... Going to throw in an obscured guy ..KBO smashing former Padre J. Pirela as such a dude

Quote from Randy Manese on November 11, 2022, 6:41 am

One time Padres Franmil Reyes and Anderson Espinoza were outrighted by the Cubs which allowed them to become free agents.  Many other minor league players we traded away in multi-player deals are now either free agents or Rule 5 eligible, like Joey Cantillo, Omar Cruz and Blake Hunt, so it will be interesting to see if any surface for our minor league rosters for 2023.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on November 11, 2022, 6:47 am

Quote from Randy Manese on November 11, 2022, 6:41 am

One time Padres Franmil Reyes and Anderson Espinoza were outrighted by the Cubs which allowed them to become free agents.  Many other minor league players we traded away in multi-player deals are now either free agents or Rule 5 eligible, like Joey Cantillo, Omar Cruz and Blake Hunt, so it will be interesting to see if any surface for our minor league rosters for 2023.

Reyes ..another "Bat" we could get at Minimum..

Quote from BoosterSD on November 11, 2022, 6:50 am

Quote from WindsorUK on November 11, 2022, 2:07 am

Since this seems to be the place for crazy player ideas, I've got one.....what if the Duds do not tender Cody Bellinger, and he becomes an FA?

 

MLBTR has his estimated salary for 2023 at $18.1M. He is most definitely a non-tender candidate. And its truly not that crazy to think about signing him on the cheap. Not only can he handle any OF position, he is also very capable at 1B. In all reality, he is probably a .240-.250 BA guy. Plus he hurt his shoulder in the 2020 WS celebration, so maybe he is finally getting back to health, and could rebound nicely.

All depends on his salary demands, and the other teams that would be willing to take a flier on him, IF LAD cut him loose.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on November 11, 2022, 6:53 am

Quote from BoosterSD on November 11, 2022, 6:50 am

Quote from WindsorUK on November 11, 2022, 2:07 am

Since this seems to be the place for crazy player ideas, I've got one.....what if the Duds do not tender Cody Bellinger, and he becomes an FA?

 

MLBTR has his estimated salary for 2023 at $18.1M. He is most definitely a non-tender candidate. And its truly not that crazy to think about signing him on the cheap. Not only can he handle any OF position, he is also very capable at 1B. In all reality, he is probably a .240-.250 BA guy. Plus he hurt his shoulder in the 2020 WS celebration, so maybe he is finally getting back to health, and could rebound nicely.

All depends on his salary demands, and the other teams that would be willing to take a flier on him, IF LAD cut him loose.

Justin Turner $16 mil opt got declined by LAD in favor of $2mil buyout.. so LAD didn't see him as a 1/14 guy.. maybe a fall back option on a 2/20 type deal to DH